Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Why do the anti-war folk continue to debate the surge?
Violence in Iraq is WAY down in the last year. This is the best thing to happen to us since we started this war and as some have pointed out the best chance we have for us to get out of Iraq in a positive manor.
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Because PJ, the surge is at best a mini surge, and now we de mini surge back to original inadequate troop levels.
Yes, the reduction of violence in Iraqi violence is wonderful, but don't assume causality yet, without the political progress that has yet to occur, the US occupation is still fighting the anarchy the initial occupation caused.
While us anti war types may also hope that the lack of violence will continue, the potential for renewed violence is and remains very real.
The probability of the the wisdom of GWB&co ever being realized is somewhere between extremely slim and next to none. All alliances in Iraq are tenuous at best, Petraeus is much smarter than Rumsfeld, but even Pertraeus pegs the odd of your favorable outcome at no more than 1 in 4.
Hope that explains it to you, even with a best case scenario, Iraq will probably never be worth the present costs. And given the long term instability it has sowed, it may be decades before we really realize how stupid it was.