AMD's Unified Gaming Strategy and the future of graphics

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psoomah

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May 13, 2010
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I'm a big fan of competition in the graphics market, which is why what I am about to say pretty much sucks, but I'm an even bigger fan of factual reality and where rational musings lead me. It is what it is.

The stated strategy of AMD's United Gaming Strategy is to build out the infrastructure to facilitate rapid and easy porting between AMD based hardware in general and AMD HSA capable processors in particular. Currently that would include the Xbox One, PS4, AMD based PC hardware and a focus on upcoming HSA APU based PCs in particular. In the future it can be expected to include Steam Box.

Any game publisher's HOLY GRAIL is for all the platforms it supports being locked down and running on nearly identical, very easy to program for hardware, substantially minimizing the time, money and manpower to develop their games and port them to those platforms and maximizing their profits.
In other words a Unified Gaming Strategy. That is the vision AMD is presenting to developers and publishers - and what a compelling and seductive vision it is. Strategically there's nothing to lose and everything to gain by supporting that vision.

It is known AMD optimizations are occurring for EA/Dice/Frostbite Engine. The initial report indicated a contract that specified 'exclusive to AMD'. That has proven to be wrong, however it is entirely possible that, while there is no legal restriction involved, that rumor may have been based on the reality EA is locking Nvidia out for purely business reasons - it just doesn't want to spent the time, money and resources on optimizing for Nvidia when the PS4 and Xbox One are AMD HSA APUs and AMD is providing substantial support to facilitate cross porting between those platforms and it is at cross purposes with the longer term vision.

That Holy Grail is now WITHIN THEIR GRASP. Of course they are going gauge their actions to support that goal - PC gaming dominated by AMD HSA APUs and GPUs in locked down ecosystems (Steam Box, Steam Client, Origin etal) to go with the AMD HSA APU Xbox One and PS4.

With that in mind, from a purely business perspective, Nvidia would represent an impediment to realizing that vision. The quicker PC gaming moves to AMD HSA APUs, the better for the developers and publishers bottom line. At the end of the day the bottom line trumps all other considerations. Hence Crystal Dynamics locking Nvidia out of it's code until the game was released and EA's focus on AMD to the exclusion of Nvidia. It can be safely assumed those examples are not outliers.

To reach that Holy Grail, developers and publishers are now substantially incentivized to maximize optimization and support for AMD hardware and minimize optimization and support for competing hardware.

Rory Read has a track record of being a winner. That is manifesting here in a manner that is almost gruesome for Nvidia. Rory Read is flat out and ruthlessly going for the kill and all facts on the ground indicate he might do just that.

This is the situation Nvidia is currently facing.

Added to this is the reality HSA is far larger than just consoles and PC gaming. Adobe and Gaikai, among many others, are presenting Keynotes at AMD"s Nov. Developer Summit in which they will outline how they are implementing HSA and where they are going with it. If Adobe is making a decision HSA is a good bet to own the future of computing, what are the rest of the professional graphics players doing? If Sony/Gaikai is going with an HSA game streaming solution, what are the other player in that space looking at?

HSA is open standards based. It is designed to be cross platform and cross OS, truly open up the potential of GPGPUs and to be future proof. Neither Nvidia or Intel play in, or have any say in, the HSA space.

If Adobe and the rest of the professional graphics players decide HSA is where the future lies, where does that leave Nvidia?

If HSA becomes the preferred solution for game and application streaming, where does that leave GRID?

Not sure what, if anything, Nvidia can do at this point to turn this around. Decide to license their IP to generate future revenue streams perhaps.

One can only hope for the best.
 
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thilanliyan

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At this moment in time, nVidia are still sitting pretty in terms of PC gaming...they have what, 60-65% of the discrete GPU business? No dev interested in selling games would hinder performance on such a large chunk of the potential market.
 

sontin

Diamond Member
Sep 12, 2011
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I'm a big fan of competition in the graphics market, which is why what I am about to say pretty much sucks, but I'm an ever bigger fan of factual reality and where rational musings lead me. It is what it is.

Haha. "Fan of reality"?
Okay, let the ride starts:
September 2010:
All of which leaves Nvidia in a very ugly competitive picture for the next 12 months. One would expect they would leaking info on their next architecture by now to stay in the picture, unless there is no chance of their next generation coming before late into 2012, perhaps, roughly co-incident with AMD releasing S.I. at 28nm.

By then Nvidia will be arterially bleeding out on all of their OEM x86 markets, which used to provide the bulk of their profits.

In all probability Nvidia is going to end up a much smaller company than it is now and far less able to directly compete with AMD in the consumer graphics markets.
http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=30437662&postcount=1

October 2010:
All of these points mitigate against Nvidia's consumer graphics and AIB future in general and Kepler and Maxwell in particular. Facing the impending release of NI, Nvidia is likely to keep losing mindshare and marketshare until Kepler comes out, presumedly in late 2011, by which time Fusion will be well launched. In another two years Nvidia will be effectively locked out of the AMD platform altogether. They'll still have Intel, but that AMD mind and market share and almost certain continuing ferocious price/performance competition from AMD isn't going to allow that to be very profitable.

Where is the future for Kepler and Maxwell in the AIB market?
http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=30546806&postcount=1

May 2011:
A year from now will see Nvidia with no cash cows in operation and none in sight, pushed by necessity into a far more competitive market than it ever faced against ATI/AMD.

Nvidia has a very hard road ahead and for an indefinite time, that's not speculation, and it's not Nvidia bashing, that's just a hard cold fact.
http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=31670677&postcount=146

July 2011:
NVidia's long time cash cow mobile and mass market OEM graphics business and low end discrete board market will be pretty much dead in the water by this time next year and AMD owning the next generation consoles will eventually dry up their upper range discrete board sales. Why buy nVidia graphics when you know nearly all PC games are ported console games and ALL console games will be optimised for AMD graphics?

Where's the future for nvidia in x86 computer graphics?
http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=32025303&postcount=1

December 2011:
AMD starting with it's high end chip and nVidia with it's low end chip making a pretty convincing argument AMD is FAR ahead of nVidia with the next gen GPU timing.
http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=32654464&postcount=46

February 2013:
NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) today reported revenue for fiscal 2013 ended Jan. 27, 2013, of a record $4.28 billion, up 7.1 percent from $4.00 billion in fiscal 2012.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=116466&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1784879&highlight=
 

3DVagabond

Lifer
Aug 10, 2009
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Discrete graphics days are numbered. It's called progress. Get on board or be left behind. It's the way it's always been.
 

psoomah

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May 13, 2010
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At this moment in time, nVidia are still sitting pretty in terms of PC gaming...they have what, 60-65% of the discrete GPU business? No dev interested in selling games would hinder performance on such a large chunk of the potential market.

The present does not predict the future, particularly in technology.

When the PS4 and Xbox One release a LOT of PC gamers will be upgrading their rigs to take advantage of the improved graphics and gameplay in next gen PC games.

My OP laid out the case as to how and why AMD has created a compelling reason for game developers and publishers to support and optimize for AMD hardware over Nvidia and Intel hardware as part of a push to get those upgraders to buy AMD in general and Kaveri/8xxx GPUs in particular.

It's about what percentage of the market AMD owns going into the future and when a threshold is reached such that developers and publishers can drop support for future Nvidia GPUs. Say in five years or so.
 
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Kenmitch

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Oct 10, 1999
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Well let's face it if AMD doesn't leverage it for all it's worth then they truly are doomed.

On another note Nvidia is somewhat like Apple when it comes to brand loyalty!
 

cmdrdredd

Lifer
Dec 12, 2001
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Discrete graphics days are numbered. It's called progress. Get on board or be left behind. It's the way it's always been.

Not until you have the power of an overclocked 3970k on the CPU side with SLI 780 performance in the GPU. There will always be people who want to do more than 1080p on high. They want 2560x1600 or above maxed out with MSAA.

That's why you will always be able to buy a dedicated GPU that is more powerful than the iGPU/APU you have. You will just bring the number of systems running current spec DirectX hardware and have the power to do 1080p at good framerates without dropping stuff way down so it loses the graphics quality. So in a few years, the percentage of people running DX11 or 12 capable hardware whatever is out then, will increase. So games will stop having to cater to lowest common denominator that is actually super low end. It won't be so low end, but it will not kill off the market for people who want to max out the latest games.

I forsee both existing together just fine. Offer a decent APU for people who don't need to run super high resolution monitors and such for their games. Offer dedicated GPU hardware for those who do.
 
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3DVagabond

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Aug 10, 2009
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Not until you have the power of an overclocked 3970k on the CPU side with SLI 780 performance in the GPU. There will always be people who want to do more than 1080p on high. They want 2560x1600 or above maxed out with MSAA.

That's why you will always be able to buy a dedicated GPU that is more powerful than the iGPU/APU you have. You will just bring the number of systems running current spec DirectX hardware and have the power to do 1080p at good framerates without dropping stuff way down so it loses the graphics quality. So in a few years, the percentage of people running DX11 or 12 capable hardware whatever is out then, will increase. So games will stop having to cater to lowest common denominator that is actually super low end. It won't be so low end, but it will not kill off the market for people who want to max out the latest games.

I forsee both existing together just fine. Offer a decent APU for people who don't need to run super high resolution monitors and such for their games. Offer dedicated GPU hardware for those who do.

Not enough 3970k's and 780 SLI setups are sold to support an industry.
 

BallaTheFeared

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Nov 15, 2010
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Discrete graphics days are numbered. It's called progress. Get on board or be left behind. It's the way it's always been.

The people who didn't stop at the 8800 disagree with you completely. A lot did, those will be more likely to go APU than discrete, but APU's will never keep pace with PC gaming, or the demands of the people who enjoy ever evolving graphics.

There is a rather large market, only a fraction of it upgrades each new generation.
 

BallaTheFeared

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Nov 15, 2010
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If fewer and fewer people buy them, their costs will go up and up.

As if the APU market was in anyway similar to the Titan market...


APU market will cut into people who stopped upgrading a long time ago, and the people who want to drive displays, as well as low profile/power users.

It's like saying GMA and Intel because of their vastly larger total market share would one day route out discrete, they're two different markets.
 
Feb 19, 2009
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Discrete graphics days are numbered. It's called progress. Get on board or be left behind. It's the way it's always been.

Its numbered for the masses, but for the enthusiast gamer, never. NV have shown there are people willing to bend over and take it for $1K GPUs.

With that kind of budget and die space (~550mm2) to throw at discrete, it will always have a massive performance edge compared to iGPU. As long as theres that gap, there's always the demand from enthusiasts for simply "the best".

The masses? Well, they can run new games on low and medium. Doesn't bother us real PC gamers.
 

cmdrdredd

Lifer
Dec 12, 2001
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Its numbered for the masses, but for the enthusiast gamer, never. NV have shown there are people willing to bend over and take it for $1K GPUs.

With that kind of budget and die space (~550mm2) to throw at discrete, it will always have a massive performance edge compared to iGPU. As long as theres that gap, there's always the demand from enthusiasts for simply "the best".

The masses? Well, they can run new games on low and medium. Doesn't bother us real PC gamers.

Except with the right iGPU they can run high instead.
 

bystander36

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Apr 1, 2013
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As IGP/APU's get faster, and the discrete market gets smaller, dev's may eventually stop supporting the discrete market, and there won't be much need for them.

Medium/High/Ultra settings are just settings based on the hardware available. If the settings are based around the iGPU market, the top iGP/APU's will be the ones which Ultra plays well on.

It'll be a while before it happens, but I fully expect the discrete video card market to disappear in time, much like the match coprocesser did as well.
 

psoomah

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May 13, 2010
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There will always be a market cause GPUs will always outperform an APU. There's always going to be people who want that extra performance.

But which GPU?

It's uncertain just what 2014 road map features were incorporated into Kaveri, but the APU that follows will be loaded for bear, including GPU compute context switching and full system integration with GPUs to match.

The salient point there is that top end APU can be expected to have at least 7870 class graphics and those graphics will be additive to 8xxx and 9xxx AIB graphics. Then add in all that AMD HSA optimization goodness we know is happening on next gen games. Makes for an unbeatable cost/performance advantage and a very compelling solution for gamers.

Put an Nvidia GPU with that AMD APU and you lose all that on die 7870 graphics performance and all that AMD/HSA optimization.

You're going to need to be a pretty hard core Nvidia fan to pass up all that AMD goodness and a crazy hard core fan to buy an Nvidia GPU to go with your AMD APU.
 
Feb 19, 2009
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Except with the right iGPU they can run high instead.

Until a next gen game comes out and even cripples gtx680/7970s.. so no, iGPU just cant compete vs a discrete with 5 times its TDP and a massive die along with discrete fast vram in abundance. The gap will exist. Games will continue to scale and demand better GPUs. There's no sign of sudden stagnation.
 

cmdrdredd

Lifer
Dec 12, 2001
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Until a next gen game comes out and even cripples gtx680/7970s.. so no, iGPU just cant compete vs a discrete with 5 times its TDP and a massive die along with discrete fast vram in abundance. The gap will exist. Games will continue to scale and demand better GPUs. There's no sign of sudden stagnation.

I'm not doubting any of that. Just that when the time comes that you get performance in the iGPU that is as good as a mid-range dedicated GPU you may be able to run high.

But which GPU?

It's uncertain just what 2014 road map features were incorporated into Kaveri, but the APU that follows will be loaded for bear, including GPU compute context switching and full system integration with GPUs to match.

The salient point there is that top end APU can be expected to have at least 7870 class graphics and those graphics will be additive to 8xxx and 9xxx AIB graphics. Then add in all that AMD HSA optimization goodness we know is happening on next gen games. Makes for an unbeatable cost/performance advantage and a very compelling solution for gamers.

Put an Nvidia GPU with that AMD APU and you lose all that on die 7870 graphics performance and all that AMD/HSA optimization.

You're going to need to be a pretty hard core Nvidia fan to pass up all that AMD goodness and a crazy hard core fan to buy an Nvidia GPU to go with your AMD APU.

What? So you're telling me I want an APU instead of SLI GTX 780s? Or heck even one 780? Yeah right.

I lose 7870 graphics performance? Good riddance lol. I'd take a 7950 over that solution.

The real heart of the matter is that Intel CPUs are still faster for CPU work. Until that changes there's nothing drawing someone such as myself to AMD.
 
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psoomah

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May 13, 2010
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As IGP/APU's get faster, and the discrete market gets smaller, dev's may eventually stop supporting the discrete market, and there won't be much need for them.

Medium/High/Ultra settings are just settings based on the hardware available. If the settings are based around the iGPU market, the top iGP/APU's will be the ones which Ultra plays well on.

It'll be a while before it happens, but I fully expect the discrete video card market to disappear in time, much like the match coprocesser did as well.

Maybe for Nvidia.

HSA is designed to make their existing HSA optimized code work seamlessly with every new generation of HSA based APUs and GPUs.

There will be no cost or time penalty for developers and publishers to continue supporting newer generations of AMD GPUs.

So they will.
 
Feb 19, 2009
10,457
10
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As IGP/APU's get faster, and the discrete market gets smaller, dev's may eventually stop supporting the discrete market, and there won't be much need for them.

Medium/High/Ultra settings are just settings based on the hardware available. If the settings are based around the iGPU market, the top iGP/APU's will be the ones which Ultra plays well on.

It'll be a while before it happens, but I fully expect the discrete video card market to disappear in time, much like the match coprocesser did as well.

There are millions of sales of 79xxs and 670/680s combined. Why would devs not cater to millions of enthusiast gamers around the world? Are they insane?

Games are developed on workstations with the best graphics, they run through hi-res textures and hi-poly models to do all the animations.. then they scale it down and create options for med, low, consoles etc. If they already have the best quality resources, why would they not include it in their game when millions of gamers have the hardware to use it?

What you guys propose makes no sense. As long as there are so many people willing to spend so much for discrete graphics, they will always matter. I don't see a sudden and massive decline in # of gamers buying top end GPUs, do you?
 
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