AMD will die within five years

[Wingznut]

But where did you pull "Intel is having a hell of a time getting their 64bit proc to work" from??? Intel has had working 64bit processors for a couple of years now.

EDIT: I just finished reading that article, and... WOW! There are so many inaccuracies in that article, it's crazy. But I think this is my favorite part...

But first it helps to understand the 64-Bit Question: What's so great about a 64-bit chip anyway? Simply this: It beats the pants off almost all the chips in use today."

 

[First]

Originally posted by: Wingznut
But where did you pull "Intel is having a hell of a time getting their 64bit proc to work" from??? Intel has had working 64bit processors for a couple of years now.

EDIT: I just finished reading that article, and... WOW! There are so many inaccuracies in that article, it's crazy. But I think this is my favorite part...

But first it helps to understand the 64-Bit Question: What's so great about a 64-bit chip anyway? Simply this: It beats the pants off almost all the chips in use today."

I think what Goose77 meant to say was that Intel had a tough time getting shipping IA-64 silicon out the door. He used the wrong tense.

And yeah, that guy could have been a bit clearer about his "beat the pants off of" statement by simply clarifying that that's only true for certain apps (and at a price obviously).

 

[Bovinicus]

They got their cpu's for cheap, and they don't give a flying **** if it hurts AMD.

What do you want us to do, donate money to the company? That would really make us fanboys. Also, how is buying a company's products hurting the company? It is AMD who has decided the price at which they sell their CPUs, not the consumers.

Pay the same for a 3000+ that Intel buyers pay for P4 3.06's. The average idiot fanboy won't do that.

That simply isn't true. I think about the same number of AMD users will buy a 3000+ as Intel users will buy a 3.06GHz P4. You have no right to speculate on what most AMD users would do if the prices were similar to Intel's.

They'll scream about how Intel is "losing market share" to AMD, but they almost never mention that the financial state of their beloved company is completely in the toilet.

People on these forums rarely talk about the state of a company as compared to the technology they are producing. Also, there have been enough threads mentioning earnings reports (Bad ones) for AMD on these forums. I don't think a user with 17 posts has a very good idea as to what people talk about on AT forums.

 

[Wingznut]

First off, I don't think AMD is going to "die" any time soon.

But I do believe that there are many people become AMD fans because of the price of the cpu. Can you blame them for applauding the cheap processors? Certainly not. Although I'm positive that there wouldn't be as many, if the prices were the same as Intel's.

Originally posted by: Bovinicus
I think about the same number of AMD users will buy a 3000+ as Intel users will buy a 3.06GHz P4.

Sorry, but I'll have to respectfully disagree with that. Intel will sell more 3.06ghz P4's than AMD will even be able to manufacture. Remember, Intel sells ~8x the amount of cpu's that AMD does. And I'm sure the market share of the top bin products is even higher, especially when you take into consideration the troubles that AMD has had in delivering those cpu's.

 

[Ice9]

I think the people who say that "AMD isn't dying anytime soon" should inform themselves. I don't think ANYONE in here who's said that has taken an actual look at the company itself.

Again, LOOK at their financials. They're abysmal, and have been nothing BUT abysmal since they decided to attack Intel on their own turf. They are running dangerously low on operating cash. Their R&D is costing them a fortune.

Applaud the cheap processors all you want, it isn't helping AMD at all. Only PROFITS will. Not "increased market share". They could have 100% market share, and it won't do 'em a bit of good if it costs them all their money to keep it.

And it isn't AMD that's decided to price their CPU's at firesale prices. It's *INTEL* in the form of price drops. Every time Intel lowers their prices, they hurt AMD because AMD has to do the same. These price wars have been going on for years now, and Intel is *winning* obviously.

A 64 bit CPU is not a masses-friendly product. Only people with a clue would potentially want this CPU, and even then only if it performs. The average joe sixpack couldn't care less about 64 bits over 32 bits. I think AMD is making their last mistake on this one.

The fact that AMD is putting all their eggs in this basket troubles me. The competition does help me get my Intel CPU's cheaper, though I must admit - Intel's back to their old tricks again with their high-end cpu's as it cost me $800 a few months ago to get my 3.06.

 

[paralazarguer]

Well, the Athlon XP 3000+ (barton) is out and is outpaced by the athlon XP 2800+ in 10 out of 18 tests (THG) AMD is lying to us with their PR rating now. They're dead meat. I won't be buying from them for a long, long time to come.

 

[Goose77]

ICE - man i cant stand u... you say that JOE sixpack wont want the 64bit because he wont know better... i have to dissagreeee! Answer me this, What Does Joe Six Pack Do With a Computer!!

PLAY GAMES ALL DAY LONG WITH THAT SIX PACK NEXT TO HIM!! (if you were a gamer u would know this)

joesixpack also wants the latest and greatest OS from MS to play his game with a boost of performace !! pre-tell,

Q:what is MS's new OS,

A:the winXP 64bit.

Q:Now what processor has the ability to use the 64bit XP and play games at the same time????

A: NOT the I-shi-tium, but the Opteron! this is for the fact that I-shi-tium is a 64bit proc only! while the Opteron is duel 64/32bit.. oops, looks like INTEL forgot about the gamer!

-THE opteron is my next upgrade, this is also why i havent bought winXP yet!!

so you tell me now if joesixpack will want an opteron??


p.s. Unlike you i know when im ASSuming!! and this is my ASSumption.


ON another note:

Evan Lieb - dood u Crystallized my thoughts Eloquently. INTEL had all this time to make a 64bit, and when released it sucked!! thats why there is an Itanium2

 

[Ice9]

ICE - man i cant stand u... you say that JOE sixpack wont want the 64bit because he wont know better... i have to dissagreeee! Answer me this, What Does Joe Six Pack Do With a Computer!!

PLAY GAMES ALL DAY LONG WITH THAT SIX PACK NEXT TO HIM!! (if you were a gamer u would know this)

joesixpack also wants the latest and greatest OS from MS to play his game with a boost of performace !! pre-tell,

I am a gamer. I run www.railbait.com, a semi-popular gaming community.

Also, Joe Sixpack is NOT a gamer. The gaming industry does NOT control the desktop industry. That's comfortably taken up by people who read email and surf the web. Gaming is part of the ENTHUSIAST market for PC's, which accounts for MAYBE 2% of the entire computing market. The rest is soaked with console gamers.

Q:what is MS's new OS,

A:the winXP 64bit.

Q:Now what processor has the ability to use the 64bit XP and play games at the same time????

A: NOT the I-shi-tium, but the Opteron! this is for the fact that I-shi-tium is a 64bit proc only! while the Opteron is duel 64/32bit.. oops, looks like INTEL forgot about the gamer!

The 64 bit version of XP is nothing new. It's been there for the Itanium for a couple of years now. It hasn't been the godsend that people expected, and the Itanium is NOT targeted at Joe Sixpack's desktop. Intel targets the Pentium 4 for that. The fact that it can play games at the same time will mean nothing to the average computer user. You are again making the assumption that the average computer user is just like you.

-THE opteron is my next upgrade, this is also why i havent bought winXP yet!!

so you tell me now if joesixpack will want an opteron??

Nope. They won't. Not to browse the web and read email. And Gamers won't go for the opteron either. The high-end enthusiast market continues to belong to Intel, and I don't see that changing once the opteron hits. I think your assumptions are incorrect, and the only reason you "hate" my opinions is because they don't coincide with yours.

Evan Lieb - dood u Crystallized my thoughts Eloquently. INTEL had all this time to make a 64bit, and when released it sucked!! thats why there is an Itanium2

At least it never had the potential to ruin intel the way the Opteron can ruin AMD. The Itanium and conversely the Itanium 2 are NOT targeted at you, me, or any other schlep that walks into a local best buy or circuit city looking to buy a computer.

 

[Novgrod]

The fact that AMD is putting all their eggs in this basket troubles me. The competition does help me get my Intel CPU's cheaper, though I must admit - Intel's back to their old tricks again with their high-end cpu's as it cost me $800 a few months ago to get my 3.06.

I can't help but feel as though I've been very clear on this point.

AMD has little choice but to focus on one processor at a time because of its limited market share, and (this being the most important factor) limited R&D budget. Unlike Intel, AMD cannot run around making chipsets and any sort of extraneous stuff.

The Athlon hit intel when Intel had it's metaphysical pants down, and then Intel couldn't produce enough chips (because so many were being sold) and AMD had significant success with that chip. Now they're trying to capture another market with the hammer where intel does not have a strong product, and I cannot imagine that anyone could fault them for this.

Clearly the Barton isn't going to blow away the p4 any time soon, and if you're the beta dog in a market, the status quo is never good.

So AMD developed the hammer in a continued effort to make quality CPUs, and thereby make money. Had they not made the athlon, and were they not making the hammer, I cannot possibly imagine a bright future for the company and I cannot help but think that AMD would barely exist in the CPU world.

Of course i defer to wingz should he tell me I'm dumb, what with him "knowing about this" and me just guessing.

Post script: AMD's financials were indeed not abysmal since they "took on intel." AMD had a very successful run of profitability, cut short by (again!) the whacking of the tech market.

In summation, I cannot imagine that anyone could blame AMD's financial worries on its CPU roadmap.

 

[Goose77]

Also, Joe Sixpack is NOT a gamer. The gaming industry does NOT control the desktop industry. That's comfortably taken up by people who read email and surf the web. Gaming is part of the ENTHUSIAST market for PC's, which accounts for MAYBE 2% of the entire computing market. The rest is soaked with console gamers.

So your telling me that joe six pack needs a 3Ghz proc and a Raden 9700pro to do word?????????? hahaha dood stfu. If you really did own a gaming site then u would know how many users are on it. And you would see and most people with computers do play games. its not all user but most. I mean, i dont know a computer owner that doesnt play games. Even my OLD ass Parents plays them, even if it is solitare!

heres an example: lets say that there is 1000 sites like yours hosting to 1000 players each. that right there is 1,000,000 people gaming! and i know there is more then that out there!!

here are some numbers(facts!!) :

UK2 - Counter-Strike servers: daliy have about 2000 people playing on them

Blizzard.net - diablo 2: had 20,000 and way over of upward 90,000, people playing on them, this is not to mention the OPEN SOURCE SINGLE player internet mod with diablo2!!

im sure i can log on to other sites and produce more numbers for u. but i think u get my point!!


haha.. gaming doesnt drive the market!!! its probably the most influentcial software there is!

now i know your gonna go into "oh well bussiness need the power!!" stfu.

another example: My brother works for a large committee in the government! all he does is use Word, exel, access, and the NET. like i said b4, u dont need the latest or greatest to do this stuff! but they upgraded. why, because the speed is out there!! where did this speed come from, gamin.

and if u mention programs like CAD etc. Most 3d developers probably use RISC, SPARC, or others, which out performs these pentium class chips

 

[buleyb]

well, I (mostly) agree with you Goose...

Basically, gamers to drive the market now. No other application for the mainstream public pushes the hardware (especially not web/email). Graphics cards, broadband internet, memory, CPUs, hard drives, sound cards, speakers, monitors...every one of them is succeeding because of the games out there (not some magical boom in word documents).

Ice, you are right, 'joesixpack' is not a gamer, but there are chances that 'joesixpack jr' is, and has enough influence over his father to buy a gaming capable machine...

just my opinion though...

 

[Ice9]

So your telling me that joe six pack needs a 3Ghz proc and a Raden 9700pro to do word?????????? hahaha dood stfu. If you really did own a gaming site then u would know how many users are on it. And you would see and most people with computers do play games. its not all user but most. I mean, i dont know a computer owner that doesnt play games. Even my OLD ass Parents plays them, even if it is solitare!

You have the VALUE PC area: These people buy AMD or Celeron boxes. They are concerned primarily with price. They want something cheap. I'd say this is around 25% of the market. Is this where the opteron is targeted? No.

You have the Mainstream PC sector. These people typically buy 2.4 ghz-ish PC's and don't really know or care how fast the video cards are, as long as it does what they want and is somewhat viable a year or two down the road. This is what the games industry targets when developing games. This is around 70% of the market. Is this where the opteron is targeted? No.

Then you have the enthusiast sector. These people buy the biggest and the best. They account for MAYBE 2-5% of PC sales. Of that 2-5%, most of those people will go to Dell and order up an Inspiron 8250, and max it out. For every person on these forums who builds their own, there's 100-200 more on delltalk's forums that don't. Is this where the Opteron is targeted? I don't think so.

UK2 - Counter-Strike servers: daliy have about 2000 people playing on them

And how many people surfing the web at that time who don't care about games?

Blizzard.net - diablo 2: had 20,000 and way over of upward 90,000, people playing on them, this is not to mention the OPEN SOURCE SINGLE player internet mod with diablo2!!

Ok, you've got 2 games, and you're up to around 100,000 people... out of an internet population of BILLIONS....

im sure i can log on to other sites and produce more numbers for u. but i think u get my point!!

Only if your point is "Gaming doesn't drive the computing market".

haha.. gaming doesnt drive the market!!! its probably the most influentcial software there is!

If that were true, then EVERY system sold would be a beast. But that's simply not the case.

now i know your gonna go into "oh well bussiness need the power!!" stfu.

Eh? What do businesses need with 3ghz machines? I'm sitting at my desk, a Network Engineer for the largest financial firm in the world (Citigroup). I hold the rank of Asst. Vice President. I manage several multi-million dollar projects. My desktop machine at work? A P3 600mhz with a Matrox G200 graphics card. All our machines firmwide are Intel-based, like most other fortune 500 companies.

Our servers are another story, but like most big businesses we would never stray from Intel-based hardware, particularly in production systems. Their track record is far too rock solid to trust anyone else. Companies like Dell, Compaq, HP and the like have spent years perfecting their server hardware suites. No one is going to trust this opteron business in the big business world where seconds == $millions. So is the opteron targeted at this market? I hope not. It'll be the end of that product line.

another example: My brother works for a large committee in the government! all he does is use Word, exel, access, and the NET. like i said b4, u dont need the latest or greatest to do this stuff! but they upgraded. why, because the speed is out there!! where did this speed come from, gamin.

So do they run AMD hardware? Is the opteron targeted here? I don't think so!

and if u mention programs like CAD etc. Most 3d developers probably use RISC, SPARC, or others, which out performs these pentium class chips

That's not exactly a huge market segment, now is it? Is the opteron going to find its niche here?? If it is, there won't be much in the way of profits, since I don't know of any big CAD corporations that have a need for 242,000 Opteron-based CAD machines.

Wishful thinking will only take you so far, kid...

-Karl
http://www.weckstrom.com

 

[Whitedog]

All I care about is:

FRAMES PER SECOND!!!

Nothing else matters...

 

[Goose77]

hahah.. dood i love reading your posts.

You have the VALUE PC area: These people buy AMD or Celeron boxes. They are concerned primarily with price. They want something cheap. I'd say this is around 25% of the market. Is this where the opteron is targeted? No.

-most of these people cant afford the best of the best out there, i have seen many of them asking "whats the cheapest hardware that will play my games". Also, you think when the opteron drops in price that they wont buy it?....

And how many people surfing the web at that time who don't care about games?

what about the other people in the household that does play games.. lol buleyb has a good point on that one.. TY dood!!

Ok, you've got 2 games, and you're up to around 100,000 people... out of an internet population of BILLIONS....

BILLIONS this statement right there is laffable! if you did not know, most of the worlds population is in China and India, both of which where 90% of pop. cant buy food let alone a computer. maybe if u added together all the populations of the developed countries you could get ONE BILLION! LMAO and thats if everyone owns one!! Example, USA has a popluation of about 300 million, and what percentage actually owns one????????

Quote

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
haha.. gaming doesnt drive the market!!! its probably the most influentcial software there is!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


If that were true, then EVERY system sold would be a beast. But that's simply not the case.

wow.. then since im a hardcore gamer, my mechine is a MONSTER.. lol
i only buy what gives me the best performace for my $$$$ I only upgrade when i have to... which will be this year for DOOM 3. getting that, with winXP64 and my OPTERON

My desktop machine at work? A P3 600mhz with a Matrox G200 graphics card

you just made my point. question was, why would a bussiness need 3Ghz for.. you sure dont!!
you seem to dance around the question without answering it!

Quote

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
another example: My brother works for a large committee in the government! all he does is use Word, exel, access, and the NET. like i said b4, u dont need the latest or greatest to do this stuff! but they upgraded. why, because the speed is out there!! where did this speed come from, gamin.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



So do they run AMD hardware? Is the opteron targeted here? I don't think so!

i never said in my post that Opteron was the target, just try to make my point that all the power out there is not really necessary for most business! But why wouldnt it be a target, since it would help make the transition from 32bit to 64bit!!! wouldnt that make more sense instead of jumpin right into 64bit??? what makes more sense?..
Maybe the drastic change is fine in your world, but i really doubt it would be for most businesses!


well im done here i got better things to do!! have fun!!

 

[Ice9]

Actually, my initial reply to your post is: Gaming does not drive the computing market. And it doesn't.

The opteron is going to be a huge flop because it's a cpu without a real niche. I think AMD has misjudged the market for 64 bit computing, almost as much as the average fanboy who thinks it's going to be "twice as fast" as any 32 bit processor. I'll be the first to admit that 64 bits is the natural progression of things, but I don't think the market at large is fully aware of the benefits.

You are also taking statements out of context. When I say there are billions on the internet, I mean just that. ON THE INTERNET. I'm not talking about people in China or wherever. I'm just talking about the internet population as a whole, and HOW FEW gamers make up that population (read: it's tiny).

You are a gamer. Fine. You are also buying an opteron. Fine as well. If you are the opteron's target market, then the opteron is going to doom AMD to failure because they won't sell enough of them (or make enough of a profit on them) to make up their R&D costs. They aren't even successful at making profits in the 32 bit world.

 

[buleyb]

Originally posted by: Ice9
Actually, my initial reply to your post is: Gaming does not drive the computing market. And it doesn't.

I still say it does, Opteron aside, gamers drive the consumer pc industry now. Gamers may not be the majority, and they don't have to be for them to drive the market. They drive the high end, what falls below is what mainstream users collect.

 

[Novgrod]

The opteron is going to be a huge flop because it's a cpu without a real niche. I think AMD has misjudged the market for 64 bit computing, almost as much as the average fanboy who thinks it's going to be "twice as fast" as any 32 bit processor. I'll be the first to admit that 64 bits is the natural progression of things, but I don't think the market at large is fully aware of the benefits.

though i've been steadily ignored i'll chime in again:

I think that people get into deep doodoo when they predict stuff so far into the future. So think away, but don't act as though it's based on fact or any projections beyond your mind. It seems to me that there is a significant market for cheaper servers, where the opteron could do quite a bit of good. Further, in Anand's description of Nvidia's headquarters, he (i think it was Anand at any rate) explained that Nvidia was waiting with baited breath for the opteron on account of its projected price/performance.

I think that AMD has a much, much better idea of the market for 64 bit computing than do you, and I think that the amount of support they have lined up behind them suggests they aren't that far off the mark. The market at large might not be fully aware of the benefits, but the people who are initially going to be buying these cpus are more aware. Furthermore, perhaps AMD isn't planning for the next six months. Perhaps they're planning for the next thirty six months. And finally, if you want to make doomsday projections it might not hurt if you cited something beyond your conjectures.

 

[Ice9]

Bug? up my ass? Because I don't agree with you?

Surely you have a better defense than that

In 5 years time, if AMD survives, I'll be surprised.

As far as the Itanium or Itanium 2 goes, I don't think the opteron is in direct competition with it. If it *IS*, then the average schlep's desktop will never see it anyway.

You guys are putting this product on a pedestal it doesn't deserve.

 

[Mucker]

I am sure AMD will be around. Wasn't thesame thing said about ATI. Let's hope there will be competitors in all hardware markets or we (the consumers) will be screwed.....

GPJ

 

[Volkspeed]

I really do hope that this is not true. In the beginning I was skeptical about using AMD, but now I love them. Best bang for the buck.

 

[DT4K]

Some of you have referred to AMD processors as "cheap".
Have you checked the prices recently?
Their low-end cpu's are considerably cheaper than Intel's, but their mid and high-end cpu's are priced almost the same as Intel. In the last couple of year's AMD has basically had two markets. The value market and the enthusiast market. People on a budget bought AMD systems because they were cheaper. And enthusiasts bought AMD systems because they are smart enough to know that just because AMD cpu's were cheaper did NOT mean they were inferior. The mass market has not embraced AMD because they are not on a tight budget and they assumed that Intel was better because they were more expensive.

AMD's biggest problem is it's image as a "value" chip maker by the majority of computer buyers. This is the image they will have to change if they want to be successful. I believe this is the reason they are pricing their chips similarly to Intel. I don't think you will see AMD chips being substantially cheaper than Intel in the future. IMO, in addition to generating profit, raising prices will actually increase AMD's market share in the long term because people will begin to see them as being equivalent to Intel chips instead of inferior.

The question in my mind is how long will it take to change their image. If the Hammer performs well, this could help drive this change in image and AMD could become an even stronger competitor to Intel. If not, they may be in serious trouble.

 

[PreDatoR]

Ice9 why don't you go crawl back into your hole and piss off you half twit... You have posted no link no nothing to back up the sewage thats spewed out of your lips in this whole thread... For someone who hasn't posted much in the 2.5 yrs you've been regged here you sure do think you jsut know what every person who owns a computer does with it... Since when have you been god?

 

[buleyb]

Originally posted by: Shanti
Some of you have referred to AMD processors as "cheap".
Have you checked the prices recently?
Their low-end cpu's are considerably cheaper than Intel's, but their mid and high-end cpu's are priced almost the same as Intel.

I'm in full agreement here, and although I want the best price I can get, i'm glad to see them doing this. It always amazed us they played this ghz/rating war with intel, but didn't price that close. I think closely matching there prices to intel is benificial to them, and its interesting to price up systems now and find very little price difference between the CPUs/memory/MB...and

Originally posted by: PreDatoR
ce9 why don't you go crawl back into your hole and piss off you half twit... You have posted no link no nothing to back up the sewage thats spewed out of your lips in this whole thread... For someone who hasn't posted much in the 2.5 yrs you've been regged here you sure do think you jsut know what every person who owns a computer does with it... Since when have you been god?

PreDatoR, I'm not an Ice9 supporter by any means, but posts like this are reasons he might not have posted for so long...this really doesn't reflect well on the regulars here...tone it down a bit next time? (oh, and Ice9, you brought the flaming across yourself...post positive, receive positive...)

 

[Goose77]

i couldnt help my self. i know i said i wouldnt post any more, but this argument has become addictive!! and i got nothing else better to do any hoo.

In 5 years time, if AMD survives, I'll be surprised.

just to let you in on something, AMD could always receive help from the government to keep on going. All they have to do is file chapter 11 and claim Precedents from the airline company cases which kept them alive. There are also government grants and other types of funding. Trust me if AMD really wanted to stay around they could indefinitly! Whats really funnie is that you seem to be a business major, but its puzzling how you dont know about the aforementioned items! With this in mind, you seem of a typical Intel FanBoy! and you cant say the same for me, for i have not taken any sides other than to say that AMD will not be gone in 5 year and even longer then that!

As far as the Itanium or Itanium 2 goes, I don't think the opteron is in direct competition with it. If it *IS*, then the average schlep's desktop will never see it anyway.

and for your info, Opteron is in direct competition with the Itaniums, just for the fact that if AMD's Opteron does take off, Intel has made a backup plan of Yamhill !! !! And if i can remember correctly from a past article, i believe that Yamhill is the lisenced architecture of AMD's 64bit hammer! (might be wrong here, but hell, i have forgotten more crap then you'll ever know)


also, sorry to say but the average schlep's desktop will have the desktop version of opteron due out in september!! dood you really need to read more!

 

[nick1985]

NOT!