AMD will die within five years

[EndGame]

Hold on now! Don't shoot the messenger here. I just found this and thought it was laughable! I like both equally and have both in my systems at home!

• Only room for two players at the high-end
  
  By Arron Rouse: Thursday 06 February 2003, 13:54
  
  
  IBM MIGHT NOT BE THE BEST choice of friends for AMD if the attitude of Bill Zeitler is anything to go by. He is predicting IBM and Intel will be the only players at the high-end of the chip market in five years time.
  In a gaffe that can only sour relations with AMD, Zeitler - Senior Vice President & Group Executive, Server Group - let slip to Fortune that he thinks the rest of the 64bit competition will fall by the wayside.
  
  AMD is pinning its hopes on its x86-64 technology, all of its new products over the next few years are offshoots from Opteron. If Opteron and its successors are dead in five years, it would leave AMD with nothing. The obvious inference is that Zeitler doesn't expect AMD to be around in five years time.
  
  AMD has worked hard to make its new 64bit processor a success and has gained enormous support within the industry, including from IBM. It is sure to come as a nasty shock that while IBM has been helping AMD along it has also been sharpening the knives behind its back. µ
  

 

[Stunt]

i hate this crap...
amd is pinning their future on hammer....wow! what a discovery!
hey and guess what intel is pinning their future on p4 and prescott...oh no!
of course they are, its their next product, if a company's products flop of course they will die...
however in the case of hammer how can this be?
it runs 32bit and 64bit simultaniously...
therefore, if 64bit software flops, big deal, it can run 32bits crazy fast anyways.
i imagine that the 3400+ rating or whatever they are proposing is the speed of hammer in 32bits against p4 (or tbird athlon if you believe the rating excuse)...
but honestly amd has temporary support from HP, dell, sun, ibm (i hope....)
two players at the high end?
remember intel sun ibm etc
i count 3 there
oh well
if ibm actually felt this way, they wouldnt have formed an alliance with amd.
opteron will do fine, this guy is shooting his mouth off like an idiot
end of story

 

[Random Variable]

I wouldnt' be surprised if AMD merged with IBM Microelectronics.

 

[buleyb]

Not that I'm anti-AMD, but they do need to come up with a longer term goal of 64bit computing. They have said several times themselves that it is what the industry needs now, to fill the in the gap left between 32bit and 64bit environments. I would find it rather humorous if AMD made a 64bit chip using IA-64, and made it outperform the Itaniums

And Sun has their own problems trying to get their UltraSPARC IIIs out the door, I don't know what they plan on doing, but they better start talking about it quick...

but HP/Compaq has moved it Itanium, IBM has the Power4, Sun is pushing UltraSPARCIII, AMD with the Opteron, and Intel with the Itaniums. The chips are consolidating now, I agree we'll see more within 5 years...

Will the Opteron kick ass when it comes out though? No doubts here

 

[Pocatello]

Gates talked IBM into letting Microsoft retain the rights, to market MS DOS separate from the IBM PC project, Gates proceeded to make a fortune from the licensing of MS-DOS. So it's not like IBM head honchos are the most sagely men out there.

 

[techfuzz]

Originally posted by: Vespasian
I wouldnt' be surprised if AMD merged with IBM Microelectronics.

I seriously doubt that will happen. IBM has been jumping ship in recent years trying to get out of the manufacturing side of business. Look at their hard drive unit as a recent example.

techfuzz

 

[gregor7777]

Originally posted by: Pocatello
Gates talked IBM into letting Microsoft retain the rights, to market MS DOS separate from the IBM PC project, Gates proceeded to make a fortune from the licensing of MS-DOS. So it's not like IBM head honchos are the most sagely men out there.

 

[buleyb]

Originally posted by: Pocatello
Gates talked IBM into letting Microsoft retain the rights, to market MS DOS separate from the IBM PC project, Gates proceeded to make a fortune from the licensing of MS-DOS. So it's not like IBM head honchos are the most sagely men out there.

Haha, good point...

I'm more annoyed by the 5 year prediction idea...."I see a lot of changes and turmoil now, in 5 years, I'll place my bet with it being settled by the 2 most stable companies of the group!", wicked tough prediction Nostra-dumba**

 

[Rainsford]

I love stupid statements with no backing at all. AMD will not "die" because they are still extremely competitive with Intel. They may not have the upper hand like they did during the good old days, but I don't think they are exactly going to die in 5 years unless they start being very stupid.

 

[ScrewFace]

I think AMD'll be around for alot longer than a measly 5 years. Right now AMD is rocking with it's 2400+, 2600+ and 2700+ and are very reasonably priced. Couple that with the fact that you can use much cheaper DDR-SDRAM to get the full potential of it Athlon XP CPU instead of expensive PC1066/1200 RDRAM which MUST be used for the Pentium 4 to get its full potential. I've been using Intel since January 28th, 1998 but I'm gonna go with AMD next time.

 

[SuperSix]

WOuldn't surprise me, they won't go out of business, they will be aquired. nVidia? ATI? IBM? Time will tell, but these paper releases aren't wearing well with investors and the general population.

 

[Random Variable]

I think we're all forgetting that IBM and AMD are going to co-develop next-generation processors.

 

[Eug]

IBM PPC970, where are you???

I want one in my laptop...

 

[SickBeast]

i don't think there's much stopping "chipzilla" (intel). even if amd were to merge with ibm, i don't think it would have much impact. look at what happened to cyrix. as soon as they messed up one product (6x86), they were bought out and have very little market share now.

i'm very worried about amd with the hammer. if it had come out at the end of last year it might have been another story entirely, but as it stands now the 64-bit athlon xp will come out late this year with inferior technology compared to the pentium 4. i can't see much support for their 64-bit technology either, aside from in the server market. add to this that there is no dual-channel ddr support, and things start getting worse.

from the preliminary benchmarks that i've seen, the p4 mops the floor with the opteron. amd had better ramp up the clock speeds FAST or they're in real trouble.

 

[Bluga]

Hopefully not.

 

[magomago]

I've used AMD since the k-5 days and it would kinda of be weird to see them "dissapear" but I wouldn't care as much as I used to because I realized that I don't care WHO makes it - as long as its quality, preforms well, and is priced pefectly (and the athlon xps fit this perfectly)

but I will always be wary of one company dominating an arena, IE- Intel because its thanks to all the pressure that AMD put on Intel that we are this advanced.


Its like those Nintendo Fans who hate Sega but there is no denying that Nintendo was willing to milk the NES for a few more years and that great games would NOT have come without competition from the Genesis.

 

[buleyb]

Well, I don't see AMD going out of business, but if they do, or at least leave the desktop processor market, Intel will be looking at another anti-trust investigation when they have no competition...

 

[Novgrod]

i don't think there's much stopping "chipzilla" (intel). even if amd were to merge with ibm, i don't think it would have much impact. look at what happened to cyrix. as soon as they messed up one product (6x86), they were bought out and have very little market share now.

i'm very worried about amd with the hammer. if it had come out at the end of last year it might have been another story entirely, but as it stands now the 64-bit athlon xp will come out late this year with inferior technology compared to the pentium 4. i can't see much support for their 64-bit technology either, aside from in the server market. add to this that there is no dual-channel ddr support, and things start getting worse.

from the preliminary benchmarks that i've seen, the p4 mops the floor with the opteron. amd had better ramp up the clock speeds FAST or they're in real trouble.

It's always problematic to predict the future, and you'll always be questioned when you don't provide any proof for it.

AMD was in a much worse situation before the release of the athlon; compared to then the world is filled with hope.

 

[Bovinicus]

I sure hope not, because I don't want Intel to start jacking up the prices to ludicrous levels. We need you AMD!

 

[bigshooter]

Why is hammer inferior to the p4?

 

[bgeh]

AMD won't die in a long time.
Even if their processors have extremely bad sales, they'll still have their flash memory business which is profitable to rely on.

 

[buleyb]

Originally posted by: bgeh
AMD won't die in a long time.
Even if their processors have extremely bad sales, they'll still have their flash memory business which is profitable to rely on.

Agreed...assuming that market doesn't go to sh*t on them

 

[frogster220]

the lack of a 64 bit processor isn't as big of a deal as it's made out to be.
no softare currently exists to take advantage of it so there's no real benefit to it.

 

[thorin]

behind its back. µ

hoooo hum another rumour from the sleeze shack. uInquirer is and has never exactly been a reputable source of info.

Thorin

 

[Ice9]

It should come as no surprise to anyone that AMD is in the crapper and won't be around in 5 years.

In the past year alone, they've blown through nearly every dime of profit they've made in the past 15 years. Seems like most AMD fans always say "AMD isn't going anywhere", but times have changed. Gone are the days where financial analysts can lie through their teeth about a company and in flies the dough. Companies now live and die by their own merits, not how their stock did during the .com era.

AMD has consistently hung around the 18-20% market share mark, and has NEVER had a year where they've been profitable competing directly with Intel. Fanboys take heart, since your opinion doesn't matter and simply doesn't change this little fact. They are at the point now where they can't even keep up with Intel, and to add insult to injury they can't sell their cpu's profitably. Quarter after quarter, AMD loses hundreds of millions. Intel? Hundreds of millions to a billion in PROFITS per quarter.

Some will argue the typical BS of intel being more than just CPU's. Well, if you think that .01% of the market is bolstering those kind of numbers, think again. I don't think Intel is selling enough phone line networking kits to rake in a cool billion per quarter.

And now, AMD's gone and done something even more stupid. They put all their eggs in one basket with x86-64. They're betting the farm on a cpu that the average Joe Sixpack won't understand, much less care enough to buy. The average geek-site reading fanboy? Sure. They'll come in droves. Shame they only account for a scant 1% of the CPU-buying market. There's a reason Intel constantly trounces AMD despite their superiority clock-for-clock.

2 other picks for companies that won't be around in 5 years out of gross stupidity:
Micron/Crucial (losing $3 million per day for the past 2 years, thanks to everyone's favorite memory type: DDR)
Hynix Semiconductor (Same, only reason they're alive now is because the korean government keeps bailing them out.)