AMD what will happen in 2015?

[gammaray]

Your thoughts?

Right now AMD shares are at a meaningless 2.65$, shouldn't they backsplit it to 26.50$ in a reverse 10 to 1 share? Or they're afraid the stock would be dragged down to 3$ again?

-Are they gonna make profits this year? Which is what matters most for them i think.
-Any words from their new CEO on new directions AMD might get into?
-Does AMD have a future competing with Intel in the cpu desktop market?

 

[ShintaiDK]

1. Loss it seems. The Q4 cuts and 13% loss of revenue forecast isnt giving any impression of a profit in the near future.
2. Semicustom.
3. Never, that train left in 2006.

 

[NTMBK]

2015 is going to be a long, boring year for AMD watchers. Any excitement is saved for 2016 when new CPU architectures arrive, and 14nm becomes viable. 2015 is 28nm and placeholder products, with the one interesting part being the arrival of stacked memory.

 

[el etro]

-Are they gonna make profits this year? Which is what matters most for them i think.

I think AMD will pay its bills with the revenue, thanks to the semicustom market. The semicustom design wins is all merit of the APU approach;


-Any words from their new CEO on new directions AMD might get into?

APUs, semicustom, graphics and embedded;


-Does AMD have a future competing with Intel in the cpu desktop market?

Can have, it depends on the success or not of the future CPU architectures.

 

[turtile]

They will stay at breakeven for the year. The estimates for Q1 are +/- 1 cent.

Who really cares about the desktop market? There's barely any money in it. Servers are where money is made.

Zen won't compete with Intel's high end CPUs with raw power per core. In 2016, they will be developing the next generation with little cash which usually takes four years. So while it's possible, it won't be for a long time... They can't afford to run three different CPU design teams.

Zen will save a lot of money for the company. Right now, AMD has cat cores, construction cores, ARM cores. Zen will merge the first two and eliminate the need to keep teams improving the two.

 

[Idontcare]

2015 will pretty much showcase whatever mark of leadership brilliance Rory imparted on AMD.

For better or worse, Lisa will have to manage the company with a product portfolio and employee morale that was essentially 100% created by her predecessor.

Given his ungraceful exit from the building, it is difficult to imagine 2015 will be a great year for AMD or Lisa.

That said, with the unquestionably delayed 14nm situation at Intel, plus the equally delayed rollout of anything post-28nm that isn't a mobile phone part, it isn't clear to me that 2015 will be all that exciting for customers in general, be they AMD's or some other business.

We might see some low-clocking or otherwise unremarkable CPUs from Intel, and possibly some expensive 20nm GPUs, and that is about all I'm expecting from 2015 to be completely frank and honest. Not going to defend that unqualified statement though.

 

[tential]

Your thoughts?

Right now AMD shares are at a meaningless 2.65$, shouldn't they backsplit it to 26.50$ in a reverse 10 to 1 share? Or they're afraid the stock would be dragged down to 3$ again

This is not how the stock market works with these 2 questions.
If this was to happen, it would mean they lost a MASSIVE amount of value in their company.

Why they don't do a reverse stock split is because usually a reverse stock split is done when a company is in trouble. AMD is in trouble, but they don't want to further send those signs to their investors. I believe the Nasdaq's minimum stock price listing value is $1. If you're below that, you get delisted. AMD doing a reverse stock split right now might suggest to investors that they're worried about their stock being valued at below $1.00 which may mean to investors that AMD is expecting to take heavy losses in the future.

Doing a reverse stock split now would do more harm than good, but not because it would just magically go down to $3 again but because of what it signals to investors about AMD's own belief in their financial success (or lack thereof).

 

[AtenRa]

Personally im waiting for next gen GPUs and Carrizo for 2015. I really like to see Carrizo at 28nm compete against 14nm FF both in desktop and mobile.

 

[Shehriazad]

I'm just hoping that Carrizo releases as Desktop product so I can try to overclock it until it breaks.

But 2015 is hella boring for AMD...nothing will happen.


It can not compete with Intel in the CPU sector. (Don't get your hopes up 2016)It can however further work on their APUs and Semicustoms which are also more or less a byproduct of their VERY decent GPUs.

And stock stuff? No idea about that stuff...Ill leave that to them.

 

[monstercameron]

Personally im waiting for next gen GPUs and Carrizo for 2015. I really like to see Carrizo at 28nm compete against 14nm FF both in desktop and mobile.

Sounds like you like seeing the lamb go to slaughter. The only interesting piece from amd for me would be hbm -assuming we get it this year.

 

[redzo]

Nothing interesting about next year, but 2016 I think it is going to be judgement day. If they screw the next x86 architecture up they will probably go bankrupt. They are being dominated by intel at anything x86. I'm pretty sure that if they screw it up this time it is going to be their last. It's sad, but VIA is waiting for a fellow x86'er.
If they go down, it will be so sad if they don't at least spare the gpu side of things. AMD gpus don't deserve such a fate.

 

[NostaSeronx]

AMD's success is dependent on FD-SOI.

 

[gammaray]

This is not how the stock market works with these 2 questions.
If this was to happen, it would mean they lost a MASSIVE amount of value in their company.

Why they don't do a reverse stock split is because usually a reverse stock split is done when a company is in trouble. AMD is in trouble, but they don't want to further send those signs to their investors. I believe the Nasdaq's minimum stock price listing value is $1. If you're below that, you get delisted. AMD doing a reverse stock split right now might suggest to investors that they're worried about their stock being valued at below $1.00 which may mean to investors that AMD is expecting to take heavy losses in the future.

Doing a reverse stock split now would do more harm than good, but not because it would just magically go down to $3 again but because of what it signals to investors about AMD's own belief in their financial success (or lack thereof).

I agree with what you said, so in other words, you're also saying that right now, investors are scared to invest into AMD? (i am too, even tho i own 200 shares...)

 

[mrmt]

-Are they gonna make profits this year? Which is what matters most for them i think.
-Any words from their new CEO on new directions AMD might get into?
-Does AMD have a future competing with Intel in the cpu desktop market?

AMD is certain to have a very rough year in 2015:

- Carrizo will be a non-product

- The cat cores will be under attack by the 14nm chips.

- The zombie FX line will be under heavier pressure

- Their ARM servers aren't really getting a lukewarm reception on the market.

- Lisa Su is certain to make additional personnel cuts.

I think the only interesting thing to happen for AMD will be the adjustments on the R&D pipeline Lisa will have to do. I'm really interested in seeing what she will be doing with the product pipeline, meaning killing some money-losing product lines or if she will keep spreading thin their paltry R&D resources. I'm also interested in seeing what the impact of cutting down so deep on sales and marketing teams will have on the company business, especially when dealing with the channel.

 

[tential]

I agree with what you said, so in other words, you're also saying that right now, investors are scared to invest into AMD? (i am too, even tho i own 200 shares...)

I'm not also saying that as well.
What I state is in my post, nothing more nothing less.

If you want to ask me are investors scared to invest in AMD? I don't know.

My own opinion? I wouldn't invest in AMD. There are too many better risk to reward areas to put money to consider AMD.
But that's my own opinion. You could certainly take the risk that Lisu Su will turn the company around. I'm sure many people have.

 

[DrMrLordX]

AMD's success is dependent on FD-SOI.

Maybe so on the hardware side.

2015 has at least one other significant development coming on the software front:

Oracle JDK 9/1.9

Assuming Oracle comes through on schedule, sometime in 2015, we'll see the fruits of Project Sumatra wrapped into the standard JDK. That means out-of-the-box support for OpenCL/HSA (more or less). It should be easier to use than stuff like Aparapi. Or so one would hope.

 

[Sequences]

Maybe so on the hardware side.

2015 has at least one other significant development coming on the software front:

Oracle JDK 9/1.9

Assuming Oracle comes through on schedule, sometime in 2015, we'll see the fruits of Project Sumatra wrapped into the standard JDK. That means out-of-the-box support for OpenCL/HSA (more or less). It should be easier to use than stuff like Aparapi. Or so one would hope.

Companies are still migrating from 6 to 7. Few are on 8, and even fewer will be moving to 9 immediately. It will take a few years for this stuff to settle in even if Oracle is on time.

I hope AMD takes the time to improve their software in 2015. That is one aspect of their products that they can own completely. I expect them to continue their current strategy with drivers.

 

[Shehriazad]

AMD's success is dependent on FD-SOI.

You and your FD-SOI...why don't you go and marry FD-SOI xD

 

[witeken]

Carrizo will be he "inspiring" in 1H15: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6zX2IqBI7A.

 

[nemesismk2]

AMD should give AMD Regor 32nm technology because not everyone uses games so dual core is great and if Regor had 32nm then it would use even less Power. Well that is what i think anyway a loyal AMD Regor user since AMD Athlon ii X2 240.

 

[mrmt]

Carrizo will be he "inspiring" in 1H15: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6zX2IqBI7A.

Somethings never change:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_n3wvsfq4Y

 

[AtenRa]

Somethings never change:

Yeap and that is the AMD iGPU superiority.

 

[mrmt]

Zen will save a lot of money for the company. Right now, AMD has cat cores, construction cores, ARM cores. Zen will merge the first two and eliminate the need to keep teams improving the two.

Actually Zen might be even worse for AMD if this the scope is as broad as encompassing the current two product lines. It would be the AMD equivalent of the Core line, that scales from tablets to mission critical servers. There is a reason on why AMD split the two lines in the first place, and the reason is that it is cheaper to develop a specific product for a specific market than to beef up the complexity of your single product and burden it with the requirement of multiple market segments.

If anything, for the sake of costs, Zen should have a thiner market scope than the previous two lines combined, meaning that some markets will be left in the cold by AMD.

 

[cbn]

Yeap and that is the AMD iGPU superiority.

With respect to the big core APUs, I can see that being an advantage for gaming laptops.

But for desktops, I think that extra die allocated for the very large iGPU on Kaveri is just too much of a cost adder.

For desktop, I would rather see AMD scale back their integrated graphics dramatically to help them better compete with Intel.

 

[witeken]

Yeap and that is the AMD iGPU superiority.

Intel's IGP already has superior media, graphics will be next.