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AMD Slashes Pricing AGAIN

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ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
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Obviously he means quarter over quarter or some other metric. I don't have the data nor will I go search due to time constraints but 40.3% of the quarters shipments is probably up from the previous quarter so AMD most likely did better as in for that quarter. AMD doesn't ship more units then NV but the market share fluctuates.

If AMD is increasing in market share it means NV is decreasing. Who is doing better? That is the point most likely. I'm sure he will be in here to spell it out at some point.

Back on topic, price cuts are great. This generation has been quite overpriced.

One should always look at the bigger picture, in this sense year to year. We basicly hear something equal with AMD and Intel. AMD tends to dump alot of inventory in1 Q and get good quarter share results. But loses it all again the next 3.
 

SirPauly

Diamond Member
Apr 28, 2009
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Obviously he means quarter over quarter or some other metric. I don't have the data nor will I go search due to time constraints but 40.3% of the quarters shipments is probably up from the previous quarter so AMD most likely did better as in for that quarter. AMD doesn't ship more units then NV but the market share fluctuates.

If AMD is increasing in market share it means NV is decreasing. Who is doing better? That is the point most likely. I'm sure he will be in here to spell it out at some point.

Back on topic, price cuts are great. This generation has been quite overpriced.


The one that is doing better obviously is the one that holds the market share lead - and it's not even close, never mind offer AMD is doing better.

Amd has improved, garnered some share, which is great BTW, but to use this as AMD is doing better than nVidia is ridiculous.
 

RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
19,458
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One should always look at the bigger picture, in this sense year to year.

Not when a person in this thread claims that AMD graphics are failing and does not provide a financial justification that supports this view. For this claim to be true, the performance of the graphics division has to be deteriorating and continue to do so. Alternatively, one could claim that even if AMD's market share grew last quarter, it grew in a shrinking market segment (i.e., current PC market has seen declines, which have resulted in decline overall decline in discrete GPU shipments for the entire industry). No such details were provided in the claim.

When we analyze the recent performance in the last quarter, the claims that HD7000 series is failing [is failing is a present progressive tense, implying it continues to fail quarter after quarter] are not justified. In fact, AMD's discrete GPU division did better last quarter than in the previous quarter, which means it has improved its standing. Therefore, AMD as a company is struggling primarily not because of the desktop HD7000 series but due to some other deeper reasons (I outlined many of them already). Correlating the stock price to the cash flow generated from desktop discrete HD7000 product segment is a discussion that is too technical for the majority of members in this sub-forum. Instead, many of such members continue to spew opinions as facts, while lacking basic understanding of accounting and finance to be able to properly correlate the performance of any product segment of a firm to that of the firm's stock price. As such, they shouldn't make comments that they will be later called upon by people who work in the field. I am not a professional in the field of medicine and thus I do not infer the primary reason for why the patient's health is failing when there is a doctor in the same room.

How did AMD do better in graphics last quarter -- the link you offered shows 40.3 share for AMD? [Wonderful way to word it with a blanket term that AMD did better last quarter than nVidia, when nVidia holds a 59.3 edge over 40.3 for AMD.

There is no irony. That's how people in finance compare companies' performance when looking at QoQ market share / shipments charts. AMD gained market share last quarter, NV lost market share for discrete GPUs. I never said that overall AMD is doing better in graphics last quarter. It was stated that AMD's graphics division is failing and that is responsible for the stock tanking. That's a ludicrous statement and I rebutted it by showing that AMD gained market share last quarter in the discrete GPU segment, and briefly outlined alternative reasons for why the stock value declined. Clearly, the problems stem from 90%+ of the cash flows coming in (or rather lack thereof) from other product segments of the firm, its dire balance sheet/debt obligation position, the company's lack of future growth prospects in other markets, ongoing management instability which does not provide confidence in a stable management team to investors, the overall negative sentiment associated with the PC sector of the economy.

When you look at performance change in the last quarter, you compare AMD's performance to itself QoQ and can also look at how other players did such as NV. It can clearly been seen that NV continues to have an overall lead in the discrete GPU segment but has suffered from a decline in shipments of approximately 10%, subsequently losing market share. That's not me misleading facts, but you are not reading the chart correctly and not understanding the terminology. "Did better last quarter" is not the same as "Has an overall lead after last quarter's numbers". AMD performed better during the last quarter than it did in Q2 2012, which exactly contradicts the statement made that AMD graphics are failing.

Based on AMD's profitability factor, AMD is first and foremost a CPU company, not a GPU company. Less than 10% of the stock price is related to the future cash flow projections being generated by the desktop discrete GPU division. Therefore, it cannot be inferred that AMD's stock price has declined by 60-70% as a result of HD7000 series failing.

The one that is doing better obviously is the one that holds the market share lead - and it's not even close, never mind offer AMD is doing better.

Amd has improved, garnered some share, which is great BTW, but to use this as AMD is doing better than nVidia is ridiculous.

No, you just have missed the context entirely and read the statement that "AMD is doing better [overall] than NV" when no such claim was made by me. I have used the common terminology in finance "Did better last quarter [as in Q3 2012]" as synonymous with "improved its standing last quarter". There is nothing in this terminology that infers that AMD has an overall better standing, that AMD's graphics division is outperforming NV's graphics division overall, etc. I can't help you when you try to argue semantics and not understand what is being stated using basic finance terminology. You seem to want to correlate the performance change from Q2 to Q3 to mean "overall" or "on the whole" or "in the grand scheme." When we look at AMD's graphics performance in Q3 from Q2, it has improved. This rebutted the statement being made that "AMD graphics is/are failing." Is failing is a present continuous term and recent trends are contrary to this statement. I can't make this more clearer.

You sound mad.

Interesting how the spin never stops. Even when AMD improved its standing in terms of market share and shipments last quarter, it's still not being admitted as "AMD graphics has improved its performance." Instead, overall graphics market share are being brought into the discussion which missed the entire context that AMD's GPU performance is improving, not deteriorating.

What do you guys think about the $179.99 Sapphire 6950?
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...82E16814102954

Good deal, or silly to buy at this point?

I'd rather get an 7850 2GB and overclock it or spend $15 more for an HD7870 1.1ghz.
 
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f1sherman

Platinum Member
Apr 5, 2011
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AMD is first and foremost a CPU company, not a GPU company. Less than 10% of the stock price is related to the cash being generated by the desktop discrete GPU division. Therefore, it cannot be inferred that AMD's stock price has declined by 60-70% as a result of HD7000 series failing.

You do this all the time :)

Focus on narrower than discussion relevant market, and then draw conclusion from that.
Why did you exclude notebook discrete and pro graphics $ share, from this AMD GPU stock analysis like they have nothing to do with HD7000?

It's pretty funny the same people criticized AMD for charging high prices when NV was selling 580 for $430-440 and then when AMD finally lowered prices, they label the firm desperate.

Terming it desperate, would be putting AMD current situation mildly.
 

SirPauly

Diamond Member
Apr 28, 2009
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There is no irony. AMD gained market share last quarter, NV lost market share for discrete GPUs. I never said overall AMD is doing better in graphics, but when you look at performance in the last quarter, you compare it to how NV did and NV lost 10% of shipments and subsequently lost market share. That's not me misleading facts, but you are not reading the chart correctly. :p

imho,

No, to determine how one does better; it is usually in an over-all context -- instead of a cherry picking context where one ignores data.

Obviously, without a shadow-of-a-doubt, nVidia did better than AMD but AMD did garner some market share growth, (2.5 percent) which is great, BTW, rewarded for their execution prowess, delivering a more complete 28nm family. However, the difference in market share is stark -- 59.3 for nVidia and 40.3 for AMD.

Why did nVidia lose share and lose units sold sequentially?

nVidia may of been constrained and simply didn't have enough 28nm wafers. They didn't execute as quickly as AMD and didn't have a complete family yet -- considering they were constrained they placed their 28nm resources where it made the most sense in an unideal situation.

Congratulations for AMD garnering some share -- Fantastic, wonderful -- ideally, would like to see discrete share be 50/50 --like in mid 2010 --but why? Because, with both companies fighting hard, innovating differences and strengths, gamers may have improved gaming experiences, performance and value. More compelling choices for gamers' subjective tastes and tolerances.
 

RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
19,458
765
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You do this all the time :)

Focus on narrower than discussion relevant market, and then draw conclusion from that.
Why did you exclude notebook discrete and pro graphics $ share, from this AMD GPU stock analysis like they have nothing to do with HD7000?

Last time I checked HD7770 / 7850 are desktop parts and this thread is related to their price drops. This sub-forum is primarily interested in desktop discrete GPUs. I am not aware of official public price announcements that were made for HD7000 mobile products this week (or this entire year). Based on all of these points, the discussion primarily revolves around desktop 7000 parts. Therefore, the statement that HD7000 series is failing due to constant price cuts (i.e., when did AMD announce constant price cuts for mobile parts since January?) was made specifically in regard to desktop discrete GPU products. You can pretend the context is different but everyone in this thread knows what the real discussion is about - price cuts on desktop HD7000 series cards and AMD being desperate and failing as a result of these price cuts.

Here is a summary:

1) When AMD releases more expensive cards, but they perform faster (HD7950/7970 vs. 580), people cry AMD is ripping them off because they expected AMD to be their price/performance savior (fair enough);

2) When AMD drops prices to offer better price/performance, people cry that AMD is failing/desperate (You can't claim point #1 and point #2 simultaneously unless you are biased);

3) When AMD improves drivers, people cry that it took them months to improve drivers, while when Fermi launched, it was expected that NV will improve drivers by up to 10% since Fermi was a brand new architecture like GCN was (which means we should have expected driver issues and subsequent fixes and performance improvements). Talk about a double standard.

4) When AMD priced the HD7000 series high, even I complained, and I recognized that GTX670/680 offered superior price performance for 1 full quarter. Since then NV has done little to improve its driver performance in the games where their cards were losing to HD7000 series, while AMD closed most of the major gaps in performance against GTX600 series (Batman AC, SKYRIM, Dirt 3, BF3, Crysis 2). Subsequent price drops put AMD back into the driver's seat. People are still stuck discussing what happened in March-May 2012 while since at least June to October 2012 AMD has offered superior single-GPU performance and superior price/performance in every category on the desktop below $550ish. In fact, it wasn't until August 16th that NV even shipped its first sub-$400 GTX600 card.

5) When previous NV cards were monster overclockers, GTX460/470, many of us respected these qualities despite their higher power consumption in overclocked states. Now, when AMD's cards offer free overvoltage and overclock better than NV cards and outperform overclocked NV cards, people are throwing hissy fits over 30-40W of power consumption differences and defending NV locking down voltage control.

Color me amused.

What I also find amusing is certain same people also made the claim that NV's GK104 is just a mid-range product but then self-pawned themselves because they later went out and dropped $400-500 on what is really a $250 GPU then that was maybe a real GTX660Ti/670Ti. If you claim that AMD is ripping us off this generation, then you have to claim that NV is doing the same. At least Balla The Feared was consistent in this message. Perhaps you skip this generation entirely then if you truly believe GTX680 was a real GTX660Ti.

Terming it desperate, would be putting AMD current situation mildly.

This is this why it's so difficult to have a discussion in this forum related to strategy, finance or operations. Even the basic concepts such as First Mover Advantage strategy sound foreign to 99% of people here.

If you launch first with newer technology, you can dictate higher prices and lower prices overall later on as competition increases. AMD did exactly this with HD7000 series. I am sorry people still don't get this approach.

HD7850 2GB launched at $249 and has now dropped in price to $189 after about 10 months on the market. Why was AMD able to launch HD7850 for $249? Because NV offered no competition at this price level for 8 months. As I said before ATI and NV have used this strategy in the past many times. Maybe you forgot though since you've been used to seeing NV keep prices mostly flat for 12 months of the year and think it's now the norm in the graphics card business. The norm for technology is the opposite -- technology gets cheaper and / or faster over time. AMD could have launched HD4850 for $189 but then they would have lost all the profits selling the card for $250 for 8 months with little to no competition from NV. GTX570 was going for $270-280 when 7850 launched for $250. That's a joke.


Even GTX670 has fallen in price by $50-80 with rebates and coupons. I guess NV "must be desperately failing" since it sells GTX670 for way less than HD7970 is going for on Newegg. No, NV is not desperate, but that's how the world of graphics has generally worked for the last 10-15 years: GPUs drop in price over time in a market with strong competition.

Here is a quick fact:

GTX280 launched on June 16, 2008 for $649
By early Spring 2009, GTX285 has fallen to $360.
ATI HD4890 launched on April 1, 2009 for $250 ($259 MSRP I believe) with similar performance to the $650 GTX280 less than 11 months later.

I guess NV was "desperately failing" that they released GTX285 and dropped the price from $650 to $360 in less than 11 months and then HD4890 owned GTX280 again at $250. That's $400 loss of value for GTX280 in 11 months.

Amusing how people forgot that GPUs get cheaper over time and that's not a sign of any desperation but a healthy state of technology industry in a competitive marketplace. Oh noes, company A is desperate to drop prices to make it cheaper for me to buy their products....what a shame! :rolleyes:
 
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SirPauly

Diamond Member
Apr 28, 2009
5,187
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Instead, overall graphics market share are being brought into the discussion which missed the entire context that AMD's GPU performance is improving, not deteriorating.

This is odd -- why would you have a problem with over-all? Why would bringing in over-all be actual spinning? You're actually defending cherry picking data and stating something very unclear by offering this:

AMD graphics did better last quarter than NV's

So you meant to say this now?

AMD's GPU performance is improving, not deteriorating.
 

An00bis

Member
Oct 6, 2012
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holy sweet baby jesus holy fucking hell I paid 300$ for my 7850 god damn it! fuck you VAT tax...

I wouldn't mind the world ending in 2012 now to be honest...

Well, my american friends, guess I'll be moving to your country in the near future. I just can't stand this shithole, 2x prices on anything and salaries like this: https://www.google.com/search?q=rom...pw.r_qf.&fp=d59ca6cf55c46e29&biw=1920&bih=912
 
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f1sherman

Platinum Member
Apr 5, 2011
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Amusing how people forgot that GPUs get cheaper over time and that's not a sign of any desperation but a healthy state of technology industry in a competitive marketplace. Oh noes, company A is desperate to drop prices to make it cheaper for me to buy their products....what a shame! :rolleyes:

Price slashing is combination of lack of cash, getting rid of swollen inventory and manufacturing improvements.


But "healthy state of technology industry"

Are you serious? AMD lost more than 50% of company value in last 6 months.
What's even worse is there are not signs of relief on the horizont.
 

RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
19,458
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This is odd -- why would you have a problem with over-all? Why would bringing in over-all be actual spinning? You're actually defending cherry picking data and stating something very unclear by offering this:

I can't help you Pauly if you don't understand finance terminology. QoQ is not the same as Overall standing QoQ. You know exactly what I meant and I clearly explained the context. A claim was made by Siberian that AMD graphics are failing. How can that be if AMD graphics gained market share last quarter? How can AMD stock be tanking because of HD7000 series if the GPU division performed better last quarter than in the previous quarter?

You guys have no arguments, just grasping for straws as usual and dismissing actual financial data.
 

RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
19,458
765
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Price slashing is combination of lack of cash, getting rid of swollen inventory and manufacturing improvements.

But "healthy state of technology industry"

Oh boy, I guess we should be praising NV for keeping prices high for us consumers. Excellent.

Are you serious? AMD lost more than 50% of company value in last 6 months.
What's even worse is there are not signs of relief on the horizont.

Like I said, people in this thread have no finance or accounting education and yet continue to make mind-boggling and completely incorrect correlations as if they know what they are talking about. I cannot continue to have a discussion on a technical level when you do not understand the basics of cash flows, or how to value a stand-alone segment of AMD (i.e., its graphics division) relative to its stock price, the contribution of different AMD product segments to AMD's bottom line or understand why AMD stock has fallen.

It's clear not a single person making these claims has read a single professionally published equity research report on either AMD or NV. At best, some of you listened to earnings conference calls and glanced at a BS and IS and now you are all experts in understanding stock prices in relation to individual product lines of a firm. :rolleyes:

Even if you did read any research reports, you would have seen divergent price targets from professional firms such as JMP Securities, FBR Capital, Wedbush Securities, MKM Partners.

You and many others here have failed to realize that if a firm prices its products higher, even if it sells less units, it can still have positive net cash flow, higher than using the old price/performance strategy. Without having access to AMD's internal financials, implying that AMD is doing worse in graphics this generation than it did during HD4000-6000 generations is pure conjecture.

The present value of total discounted future cash flows of the entire AMD Graphics division (including both mobile and desktop segments) accounts for less than 25% of the stock price. Claiming that AMD's stock value has fallen 50% in the last 6 months due to poor performance of HD7000 series is laughable. It's pretty pointless for me to even try to explain it since it's clear it'll be ignored or not understood due to lack of knowledge on the subject matter at hand.
 
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SirPauly

Diamond Member
Apr 28, 2009
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I can't help you Pauly if you don't understand finance terminology.

Personally never offered, "AMD's graphics were failing" and never offered, "AMD graphics did better last quarter than NV's"

Personally understand what sequentially means! Loathe cherry picking data.
 

RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
19,458
765
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It's not cherry-picking data. AMD discrete GPU graphics division did perform better than NV's last quarter since the former has gained market share while NV's division lost market share due to supply constraints. NV's graphics division still has superior market share standing in the discrete GPU market after the results of the 3rd quarter 2012.

Both of these statements are true if you work in the industry. There is no cherry-picking but simply your lack of understanding of the terminology. Performing better QoQ is not the same as having overall market share in a quarter. These two statements are not related. AMD graphics division cannot be failing if it has improved both its graphics cash flows and market share QoQ. You can say that AMD's graphics division continues to trail NV in the overall market share as of Q3 2012. That would be true. No claim was made to the contrary that NV is the discrete GPU market leader. My context from the beginning was to address the incorrect claim that AMD's graphics division was failing.

You can go ahead and keep linking Steam numbers as you love doing because it's more accurate than real world professional data (sarcasm).

HD5750 and GTX470 have the same overall market share on Steam as they did last quarter despite neither product selling in volume in the retail market channels for months now. Makes perfect sense. I guess we should use Steam and ignore real world market share data from now on because clearly real world professional data is made up!! Funny how you hate cherry-picking but yourself link Steam data at an opportunity, data which is not even recognized by any finance firm as accurate.

Even in the past when GTX470/480 had lower Steam market share, NV's GPU division gained market share and did extremely well. Since then I knew Steam #s are bullocks as their sample size does not help to accurately represent the entire market of GPUs. Not to mention with so many NV and AMD GPUs used for things outside of gaming such as distributed computing and bitcoin mining projects, that many of them don't even register on Steam as they are not used for games.
 
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SirPauly

Diamond Member
Apr 28, 2009
5,187
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Without having access to AMD's internal financials, implying that AMD is doing worse in graphics this generation than it did during HD4000-6000 generations is pure conjecture.

Is it? Can offer many quarters during that span, where AMD had more revenue, profit and share.
 

SirPauly

Diamond Member
Apr 28, 2009
5,187
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It's not cherry-picking data. AMD discrete GPU graphics division did perform better than NV's last quarter since the former has gained market share while NV's division lost market share due to supply constraints. NV's graphics division still has overall superior standing in the discrete GPU market after the results of the 3rd quarter 2012.

Both of these statements are true if you work in the industry. There is no cherry-picking but simply your lack of understanding of the terminology or not reading the chart.

AMD did improve sequentially but did not perform better than nVidia - it's clear as day.