Speculation is half the fun!
I thought it was "Anticipation is half the fun"
Ballpark estimates:
8500 (August 14, 2001) (new gen)
no refresh
9700 Pro (June 18, 2002) =
+70-100% the performance :thumbsup: (new gen)
9800 Pro (April 2, 2003) = +15-20% :thumbsdown: (refresh)
9800 XT (September 30, 2003) = +15-20% :thumbsdown: (refresh)
X800XT (May 4, 2004) =
+70-100% the performance :thumbsup: (new gen)
X850XT (Feb 28, 2005) = + 10-15% :thumbsdown: (refresh)
X1800XT (Oct 5, 2005) =
+70-100% the performance :thumbsup: (new gen)
X1900XTX (Jan 24, 2006) = +15-25% (refresh)
X1950XTX (August 23, 2006) = +10% :thumbsdown
🙁 refresh)
HD2900XT (May 14, 2007) = inconsistent performance all over the place vs. X1950XT from
+30% to +80% but still decent (new gen) :thumbsup:
HD3870 (Nov 15, 2007) = +10-15% (refresh) :thumbsdown:
HD4870 (June 25, 2008) =
+70-100% the performance (new gen) :thumbsup:
HD4890 (April 1, 2009) = +15% (refresh)
HD5870 (September 23, 2009) =
+70-100% the performance (new gen)
HD6970 (December ? 2010) = speculated to be
Half-gen (so ~ 35-50%???)
You see a pattern? (the same will apply for NV).
We are always excited about next videocard releases. But when you look back at history, every single refresh sucked! True innovation happens with
new generations. You already saw GTX580 only squeeze 15-20% from 480, which is nothing more nothing less than what is expected based on the definition of a "refresh". Sure it fixes a lot of GTX480's flaws, but when we revisit its place in history in 5 years, it will be just another
weak "refresh".
Even if HD6970 is 40-50% faster than the 6870, that still only gets us around GTX580's performance. I expect
real fireworks when HD7000 and Kepler launch because they will be the real deal
new generations on 28nm, not refreshes or half-gen refreshes. I am sure you are also more excited about them.
P.S. A little fairy told me you bought your HD6850 as a 'stop-gap' until 28nm monsters!