A major slip to Barcelona's schedule is the nail in the coffin. I'm affraid AMD is now in a death spiral.
apoppin
Lifer
yes ... long before you posted them let me quote this doozey from Barrons
could they do *worse* then their first quarter? ... $700,000,000.00 lost in the first 3 months of this year ... of course, they will beat expectations ... ANY earnings beat expectations.
and did Viditor tell you how AWLFUL the term of the loans were that AMD signed?
--they might as well have signed with the Devil in their own Blood
Sigh...
1. AMD has beed upgraded by 2 firms from sell to buy over the last 2 weeks
2. The day after the initial news (not the PR but the first news, April 24) of the bond sale occured, AMD jumped by 3% on triple normal volume...
3. Considering that Fidelity is the most successful Fund there is (and slightly conservative as well), what does that tell you about the smart investor's feelings on AMD?
Very Heavy Sigh...
The terms of the loan are what caused such optimism in the stock! Because Bob Rivet used derivatives on the deal, there is no dilution of shares expected at all!!!
Do I care if many investors turned down the offering? Of course not...there were many more where that came from and AMD has the money now.
apoppin
Lifer
they are deluded and dazzled by the CEO's spin?
or perhaps you might have noticed that many stocks are rising in this over-optimistic market over bits of "good news" regarding the possiblilty of further interest rates declines
the Dow is breaking records and the Tech markets are also experiencing a lift
so?
and what's with the 'heavy sigh' ? do you think you are talking down to me ?
i think not
and please show the 'details' of the loan repayments ... they are awful for AMD
or perhaps you might have noticed that many stocks are rising in this over-optimistic market over bits of "good news" regarding the possiblilty of further interest rates declines
the Dow is breaking records and the Tech markets are also experiencing a lift
so?
and what's with the 'heavy sigh' ? do you think you are talking down to me ?
i think not
and please show the 'details' of the loan repayments ... they are awful for AMD
Originally posted by: apoppin
Originally posted by: Viditor
Originally posted by: apoppin
Originally posted by: Griswold
Viditor, stop trying to beat common sense into fanboys and armchair CEOs - its futile.
he IS a fanboy ... just one with the "official AMD" PoV
--i also notice Viditor is *afraid* to give his PoV in Video ... where he WILL get a response
:Q
AMD\ATI Interview
i wish AMD luck ... or sense
AMD has never been in as desperate a position before ... dragging the carcass of another badly integrated company along as they try to "figure" what is wrong
if their CEO wasn't still lying to us and taking us for fools - i'd say there was hope
Sigh...let me address this in order:
1. I am not a fanboy, I'm an investor with a rather large current holding of AMD shares. I have an admitted AMD bias, but I have also had many posts that favour Intel...for example, just a year ago there were a whole slew of equally uninformed posters predicting that Intel was doomed and that AMD would have the entire market within 10 years. Obviously I contradicted this with equal fervor...
2. I don't post in the video section because I don't really care much about current video card issues...in fact, I use (professionally) almost all Nvidia at the moment (Quadro FX).
I also don't post on the Yahoo message boards where I'm sure I'd get a "response" as well...
3. If you think that "AMD has never been in as desperate a position before", then you really haven't studied the company.
a. As I stated, their cash position is now secure for years.
b. In 1999, AMD gambled all of their assets on Fab 30 (in other words, if Fab 30 had not been the huge success it was, AMD would have been bankrupt very fast). This was a FAR greater risk than purchasing ATI...
4. If you are going to call Ruiz a liar, you might think about citing your reasons...otherwise it's just slandering the man for no cause.
BTW, remember that the term FUD does NOT mean lying or BS...in fact it's the opposite. The term FUD came out of IBM marketing, and it's using partial truths and facts in the same way that politicians use a smear campaign. The facts are absolutely correct, but they are selected to promote a negative portrayal of the competition.
well, thank-you
and i am going to say the same thing to you that i said to Zstream ... i *want* AMD to succeed.
--that IS the position i am coming from ... i feel we "need" them or someone like them and it is better to have 'them' rather than 'someone else' i don't know
1. Good to know ... and you as an investor must be at least a little "worried", no?
Clearly you ARE an AMD fan ... but that is beside the point.
I am confident enough to have invested in the high 6 figures over the last 2 months...does that answer your question?
And as to "being a Fan"...I do indeed believe in the company and where they're going (which is why I invested), but if they dissapoint me or do something I disagree with then I will drop them like a shot. If that is your definition of "fanboy", then fine...
Then I very much thank you for the compliment! I just don't need to jump into another thread like that...it appeared to me to be a lot of accusations without substance (conclusions based on facts not in evidence) and more of an emotional argument. People who make these decisions based on their feelings rarely want to discuss the facts...
Sanders was probably the only CEO I can think of that could have gotten AMD started...he was tough and a real fighter. Unfortunately, those very same aspects are what prevented AMD from growing once Athlon came out and Fab 30 began. The reason is that nobody liked dealing with him...for example, AMD's largest shareholder (CALPERS) tried desperately to get him removed on several occasions, and the major OEMs didn't trust him enough to sign contracts.
Since Ruiz has taken over, AMD has gained:
1. Major contracts with every OEM
2. A major foothold in the server sector
3. A far greater production capacity (tripled over the last 18 months)
4. The largest marketshare in their history (and they didn't have to dump all of their chips at cost in asia to do it, which is what they did with the K6s)
4. i do and i am ... i stand by what i posted and i gave my reasons: a "lie" is a 'lie', never-mind the 'color' ...
and *my entire* point is instead of shutting your eyes to the gravity of the situation and saying "nothing is wrong" ... try to find a workable solution to HELP them
i am quite sure there were those arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic as it started to tilt
Please list Ruiz's "lies" then...I couldn't find one in your posts.
You think Fidelity and all of the others are deluded and dazzled? You know, De Nile isn't just a river in Egypt...
If that were true, then you would expect Intel to outperform AMD wouldn't you? Since the Bond issue, AMD is up 10% and Intel is up 2.24%...
Not all of the details are publicly available, but:
Yahoo article
"In connection with the offering, AMD entered into a capped call transaction which is intended to reduce the potential dilution to AMD's common stockholders upon any conversion of the notes. The capped call transaction will have a strike price that matches the conversion price of the convertible notes and the cap price in the capped call transaction will be $42.12 per share"
apoppin
Lifer
look harder
and why don't you *explain* the details of what IS known? ... simply ...
-for the less privileged among us who may not understand the convoluted and technical language of the loan
and why don't you *explain* the details of what IS known? ... simply ...
-for the less privileged among us who may not understand the convoluted and technical language of the loan
As I said, if you are going to call the man a liar, the very least you could do is to categorically state why...I really don't have the time to search through all of your posts and try to interpret what you're saying.
As to the details of the bond issue, that's a fair point (though I should mention that you are calling it "awful" without saying why...).
A convertible bond is one where you are paid interest on the amount and you have first call on any repayment of debt if the company goes under.
As a sweetener, if the price of the shares goes way up (in this case above $42) you can convert the bond directly into shares, thereby making a LOT more on your investment.
These shares are created by the company so the value of the existing shares is diluted (more slices of the pie).
What Bob Rivet did is to hedge the conversion by purchasing a kind of option known as a "capped call". This means that if the price does indeed hit $42, the source of the shares will be from the capped calls and not from the company (hence no dilution).
Because the price on the stock is so low right now, the price of the capped calls was very low (~$200 million to cover $2.2 Billion).
This is a classic example of "if life gives you lemons, make lemonade"...by making the hedge while AMD's share price is at it's lowest, they were able to keep the cost to an acceptable minimum.
Rivet is a genius at financing...another example is the $1 Billion rebate the state of NY is giving AMD for building a Fab there, or the rock bottom $multi-billion loans that Dresden gave AMD to build there...
apoppin
Lifer
so far so good ... now please explain what happens if AMD is unable to repay the loan on time ... you are assuming AMD starts to make a lot of cash - right now - and their launches are all successful
as to 'lies' ... Ruiz is saying AMD has to keep secrets ... of course ... but he is saying the reason they *won't* show Barcelona is because they don't want intel to "know" ... BS ...
intel "knows" Barcelona stepping B-0 is a 'dud' if i can figure it out
Ruiz is promising to be more "open" but i am saying it is a ploy ... it the same old FUD, spin and lies about the new delay ... nothing has changed about barcelona's launch that was not pre-patterned in r600's fiasco.
as to 'lies' ... Ruiz is saying AMD has to keep secrets ... of course ... but he is saying the reason they *won't* show Barcelona is because they don't want intel to "know" ... BS ...
intel "knows" Barcelona stepping B-0 is a 'dud' if i can figure it out
Ruiz is promising to be more "open" but i am saying it is a ploy ... it the same old FUD, spin and lies about the new delay ... nothing has changed about barcelona's launch that was not pre-patterned in r600's fiasco.
Are you really saying that you don't think AMD can repay $132 Million/year with over $2 Billion in cash and their most expensive debt already paid off???
Remember that repayment of the principal isn't due until 2015 (in either cash or shares) and that servicing the debt is only 6%PA of that principal...
So what your accusation is based on is:
1. A conspiracy theory that Barcelona is a dud, though you have nothing to back that up
2. Intel knows everything about Barcelona already, even though you have nothing to back that up
3. Barcelona is somehow related to r600 (for which most of the design work was done before AMD took over and isn't even being made at an AMD Fab), even though you have nothing to back that up
I think I'll stick with my slander label for your claims...of course I don't believe in the Rapture either, so maybe it's just me.
apoppin
Lifer
your 1,2,3 is dead wrong ... please don't stuff words in my mouth ...nor do you read my posts with any understanding
and i see that you also oversimplify everything and ignore my questions
what happens IF AMD is late or cannot repay ?
and i see that you also oversimplify everything and ignore my questions
what happens IF AMD is late or cannot repay ?
OK...then this is the part of the story where you can explain the basis of your posts.
You might as well ask what happens if all C2D chips must be recalled...the odds on that happening are higher than AMD not being able to service the loan (mainly because that type of recall has happened to Intel before).
The odds on both of those scenarios are so remote as to be inconsiderable...
Let me be clear, the bond issue has vastly reduced AMD's repayments (by a multiple of 3 at least), not increased them.
apoppin
Lifer
i thought so, you are a true amd fan
... and i wish AMD all the luck in the world as they will need it
... and i wish AMD all the luck in the world as they will need it
Nemesis 1
Lifer
- Dec 30, 2006
- 11,366
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Viditor I have a real hard time understanding your logic. For A guy that made Trillions in the stock Market . Your logic should lose money not make it.
You stated that the 2 billion AMD raised recently will hold them over for years to come. not true.
Amd lost 1 billion in 2 qt.
Amd didn't get 2 billion free dollars . It a loan that has to be payed back. AMD added to there debt they did not reduce it.
2nd qt results AMD will lose another 1/2 billion. 3rd qt. AMD will lose another 1/2 billion as R600 will not save AMD . and K10 still won't be available.
Qt.4 amd will lose another 1/2 billion as K10 more than likely still won't be shipping if we go by AMD recent history.
So When K10 finelly does arrive way to late and not enough to help.
Intel can pull Nehalem into the 2nd qt of 08. Just going by Intels recent history of pulling things forward logic would say Intel can pull Nehalem forward . End of game Check MATE.
You stated that the 2 billion AMD raised recently will hold them over for years to come. not true.
Amd lost 1 billion in 2 qt.
Amd didn't get 2 billion free dollars . It a loan that has to be payed back. AMD added to there debt they did not reduce it.
2nd qt results AMD will lose another 1/2 billion. 3rd qt. AMD will lose another 1/2 billion as R600 will not save AMD . and K10 still won't be available.
Qt.4 amd will lose another 1/2 billion as K10 more than likely still won't be shipping if we go by AMD recent history.
So When K10 finelly does arrive way to late and not enough to help.
Intel can pull Nehalem into the 2nd qt of 08. Just going by Intels recent history of pulling things forward logic would say Intel can pull Nehalem forward . End of game Check MATE.
I think where you're confused is that AMD did NOT lose $1 Billion in cash over 2 Qtrs (nowhere near that)...the majority of that reported loss is on paper only. Depreciation accounts for $314 Million of Q1's loss, and there are many other paper losses.
Yes, they did add to their debt...but they greatly reduced the payments required for that debt as well as the cost of the debt.
These kind of fantasy based crystal ball readings are where you lose me completely...
OooooK...(walking away quickly). I do miss the old days in NY where you ran into so many other messengers from other planets like your good self...
Please let me get you a :beer: to wash those pills down with...
Nemesis 1
Lifer
- Dec 30, 2006
- 11,366
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Viditor whats wrong with you man . Those were not Paper losses They were real . Look at the Cash AMD had on hand . They lost 1 billion of that in 2 qts. Thats not a paper loss. It was real money .
If you have a link to prove differantly lets have it. But than I will go get the links that prove your paper loss theory is just spin put out by yourself an AMD investor trying to do damage control in the Forums . I to invested in amd . I shorted it at $39 . And I am still hanging onto it . Even with the recent run up in the stock I am not nervious at all. I know it will go below $10. Why? Because AMD hasn't got anything to go against Intel period . Not till 08 and that will be short lived till nehalem arrrives earilier than exspected.
Maybe they didn't lose 1B, but they still USED 1B. It's still money they no longer have for their warchest.
Nemesis 1
Lifer
- Dec 30, 2006
- 11,366
- 2
- 0
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker...S:AMD&Feed=BW&Date=20070419&ID=6772411
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker...S:AMD&Feed=BW&Date=20070123&ID=6377989
Spin it anyway you want these are real losses . not paper and the 2nd 3rd and 4th qt. Of 07 will be more of the same.
@nemesis1-Why do u sound so eager to see AMD go down?
If anything we shud hope AMD comes back stronger then ever,its after thanks to them we have core based processors and even nehalem at the end of the tunnel,and if they go down,intel and nvidia won't have competitors and we'll get crap(overpriced anyway) like the 8800 ultra and its CPU equivalent
And we wont see stuff like the $266 quad core and its future equivalent either
But the signs aren't good,AMD shud really get their act together and release products on time or earlier,if they dont want to go down
If anything we shud hope AMD comes back stronger then ever,its after thanks to them we have core based processors and even nehalem at the end of the tunnel,and if they go down,intel and nvidia won't have competitors and we'll get crap(overpriced anyway) like the 8800 ultra and its CPU equivalent
And we wont see stuff like the $266 quad core and its future equivalent either
But the signs aren't good,AMD shud really get their act together and release products on time or earlier,if they dont want to go down
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