Unlikely IMHO. What's a low TGP (40-50W) 3050 in TS graphics? 3300-4300 points. Ti's not much higher than that either.
So not exactly earth shattering more performance over Rembrandt. Just 1 tier-ish higher.
Phoenix may be the same with AD107.
RTX 3050 50W is 3931-4503, so that's 57-80% higher performance than Rembrandt.
This is a significant difference which could allow you to play at higher details or playable frame rates. I certainly wouldn't dismiss It.
Not sure about mobile but in desktop RTX 4080(320W) managed ~60% higher perf/W against RTX 3080(320W).
So I wouldn't be surprised If AD107 managed at least 7000(+40% over 3050Ti) and that is 75% more performance than Phoenix.
If Phoenix manages 50% more performance than Rembrandt, then It will only compare to a cutdown 50W GA107 at best, It will be far behind ADA107.
I have to say for an IGP that would be a very good result and you also save on power draw, but there are also significant disadvantages.
Phoenix without dGPU will be put inside premium laptops, so It will likely cost more than a laptop with GA107 or even AD107. Then you also have to sacrifice a part of your main memory for IGP and the lower performance compared to dGPU.
Cut down N23 designs hover 7500-8500 points. I doubt lower stack N33 could only manage 9000.
But anyway, not sure why any of these matter. TGP is configurable for Radeon mGPUs. There's a bunch of laptops with 6600M configured for lower. AMD just doesn't advertise it and ODM don't seem to bother often either.
I have a hunch we won't see MX650 in nVidia's lineup next year.
I set It to a very conservative 9000, because I don't know how low TDP will go. Even with this conservative estimate, you have a big gap, which will Nvidia take.
I don't see why MX650 wouldn't be released.
MX570(GA107) already has similar performance to Phoenix, although It has a huge disadvantage in only 2GB Vram.
They could rebrand It to MX650 but with 4GB Vram and It will sell very well. The reason being Intel has by far the highest volume and a much weaker IGP.