AMD Kaveri OC On Planet Neptune

[ShintaiDK]

And remind me how much Intel has announced about Skylake? We have only a handful of leaks, for something which will arrive much sooner than any theoretical post-XV big core.

Not saying that necessarily XV isn't the final big core, but we don't have enough information yet.

Skylake has been known since 2010 or 2011.

 

[NaroonGTX]

Your point? Bulldozer and its successors were known about since around 2007~2008. Besides the fact that Skylake exists, not much is known about it.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Your point? Bulldozer and its successors were known about since around 2007~2008. Besides the fact that Skylake exists, not much is known about it.

PCIe4, DDR4, 512bit AVX3.2, 14nm. Not exactly unknown.

But what news can you find on the post Excavator from AMD. Nothing. Its the same amount of news we got since AM3+ died.

Big cores from AMD is a product that cant pay its ROI.

 

[inf64]

PCIe4, DDR4, 512bit AVX3.2, 14nm. Not exactly unknown.

But what news can you find on the post Excavator from AMD. Nothing. Its the same amount of news we got since AM3+ died.

Well we do have two brand new project codenames . Basilisk and Cipher(thanks to Hans!). One of these is based on big core, the other on ARM probably. Both are post-XV core designs.

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/curtis-rantz/9/432/b58
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/curtis-rantz/9/432/b58

August 2010- April 2012 Staff verification engineer/lead of Verification Methodology Team
Project: Judo(Komodo)/WANI(Basilisk)/Cipher(Kryptos)

• Worked in the APU Emulation group on the Single Emulation/Simulation Work Area and Build Flow project for the Kaveri, Carrizo and Basilisk APUs.

Basilisk is listed in the same group (and chronologically!) as Kaveri(SR) and Carrizo(XV). Logic says it's post-XV core. WANI looks like it might be 2016 2-4P server chip based on the same core as Basilisk while Cipher(Kryptos) might be 2016 ARM based product for low power segment.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Well we do have two brand new project codenames . Basilisk and Cipher(thanks to Hans!). One of these is based on big core, the other on ARM probably. Both are post-XV core designs.

Could you link me to the big core part?

Some linkedin from H1 2012 with a contract worker doesnt really count. Also rumours says basilisk is SoC only if we go that way.

 

[mrmt]

No wonder the big cores are dead for AMD.

There's a leak pointing out an APU called Basilisk that comes after Carrizo, so it seems that AMD has an design on the pipeline for their big core.

The death of the big core pointed by Charlie D seems to be related to the FX/Opteron parts, as they seem to have put money in there. All they got on the pipeline is Warsaw, which seems to be just errata fixing and by no means something that will be able to cope with Haswell/E and Broadwell/E.

In any case, I think they will push the brakes eventually, because with volumes falling below 350MM and their gross margins in the toilet, because once the WSA quota starts to being filled by the console, GPU and ARM parts, they won't have a reason to keep sinking money on their big core line.

 

[inf64]

Could you link me to the big core part?

Some linkedin from mid 2012 with a contract worker doesnt really count. Also rumours says basilisk is SoC only if we go that way.

Rumors are rumors. We know there is an APU coming after XV core that will land in the same x86 mainstream desktop segment. This cannot be ARM or Jaguar based. It only leaves big core family. Also who's to say AMD cannot make 8 or more cores based on SoC? Have you heard of a chip inside PS4 or Xbone? Yes, that is a custom 8C SoC based (in turn) on a 4C SoC known as Kabini . There you have AMD making a new 8C part from two independent QC parts, all on the same die. They will need a new server platform/socket for this but that is expected.

 

[AtenRa]

Big core is not the majority of AMD CPU sales.

We know that the only thing AMD acquires from Globalfoundries is their big core chips, and that's roughly 1.1 billion per year, if they were able to fulfill the commitment. Apply a 35% gross margins and then you'll reach 1.5 billion. Problem is that AMD is below the expected target to reach the WSA, so their big core business must be somewhat smaller than this optimal case, let's say 1.3/1.4 billion, or 325/350 million per quarter. With AMD CPU sales being around 800 million per quarter, that means that the cat cores are selling more than the big core family.

What the F....ck man, you dont even know how to calculate Revenue and you are talking about AMDs financials ???

Revenue = CoGs / (1-Margins%)

CoGs = 1.1Billion as you said from GloFo
Margins = 35% or 35/100 = 0.35

So

Revenue = 1.1Bil / (1-0.35)
= 1.1Bil / (0.65)
= 1.69Bil

AMD manufactures more than CPUs in GloFo, they also manufacture Motherboard Chipsets.

Also, BigCore CPUs (FX & Trinity) have more than double the ASP value of Bobcat/Jaguar APUs/SoCs. That means that is takes 2 or more Bobcat/Jaguar APUs to match 1 BigCore FX or Trinity/Richland APU in Revenue.

35% is the AVERAGE Gross Margins of all AMD products and not the Big Cores alone.

But we do know that overall BigCore quantity volume sold (Both in Desktop/Server and Mobile) is higher than Small Core(BobCat/Jaguar) volume.

So to sum up,
BigCore revenue is more than 50-60% of AMDs CPU products. And since the overall revenue per year is close to 5Billions for 2013, BigCore CPUs are close to 2 Billions worth of Revenue.

 

[ShintaiDK]

A product mix from Q3 2012? Remember how many times you dismissed that yourself?

If you want to reuse that old chart, its no wonder the FX line died with its horrible sales.

And if you want to look over 9 months as your chart shows. AMDs CPU division went from 3176m$ in 2012 to 2382m$ in 2013 in revenue.

ASP is also higher in the mobile space as you should know. A space where even by your old charts, the small core line already sits on 60% of all shipped mobile CPUs from AMD. And desktop small core percentage was rising fast. Note bobcat went from 772K to 1335K while desktop chips shipped felt from 9654K to 7418K. Thats big cores tanking hard.

 

[AtenRa]

ASP is also higher in the mobile space as you should know. A space where even by your old charts, the small core line already sits on 60% of all shipped mobile CPUs from AMD.

Big Cores from Server, Desktop and Mobile are 50-60% of Overall CPUs Revenue. Even if small cores has 60% of the Mobile quantity volume sold. Be careful, that 60% is Volume sold not Revenue.

Also, AMD sells Big Cores with Higher ASP in mobile with Trinity and Richland . Since the ASP is 2x higher with Big Cores they produce almost the same Revenue as Small Cores.

If you add all three segments (Server, Desktop and Mobile) BigCores produce more Revenue than Small Cores. And that is a motivation to continue design and manufacture BigCores as well.

 

[ShintaiDK]

You still base all your numbers on 2012....time have moved on. And so has the product mix.

The FX line obviously couldnt pay for itself anymore.

 

[mrmt]

You still base all your numbers on 2012....time have moved on. And so has the product mix.

The FX line obviously couldnt pay for itself anymore.

From Q312 to Q313 AMD CPU sales shrunk 15% (CPU revenue). Also a a relevant part of the desktop segment was comprised of very bottom end K10, which should now be replaced by Kabini. All in all we can see a trend of increased volumes of the cat chips.

We don't really know the exact mix, but we can verify a few things from their big core line:

- Revenue is shrinking

- Margins are depressed, below corporate average is almost a given (See K10 inventory write down)

- The cat family is growing its presence on desktops.

- From our Q3 numbers we can verify that WSA orders in Q4 wouldn't be enough to fulfill the WSA quota, and this year's quota is already far smaller than the quota of the previous year.

So, as you can see, there isn't a single positive sign from AMD big core line. This can't go on much longer.

 

[Ajay]

Well, we are getting way off topic. Again.

 

[erunion]

Seriously, where are the kaveri leaks? No previews. Nothing.

With all of AMD insistence that it would be shipping in 2013, I thought for sure we would have a soft launch in 2013. But here are the last days of 2013 and nothing. Is Kaveri even shipping, or is it just sampling still?

 

[rtsurfer]

Seriously, where are the kaveri leaks? No previews. Nothing.

With all of AMD insistence that it would be shipping in 2013, I thought for sure we would have a soft launch in 2013. But here are the last days of 2013 and nothing. Is Kaveri even shipping, or is it just sampling still?

Did you just get on the internet after being off for 2 months..???

AMD already announced Kaveri soft launch in January with expected retail avability at around February.

 

[erunion]

have an official link with dates?

 

[SiliconWars]

Nobody launches in December, if they have something ready by then they wait for CES anyway.

 

[Lonbjerg]

Nobody launches in December, if they have something ready by then they wait for CES anyway.

So AMD has never launched products in December..ever?
Think hard before you answer.

 

[Homeles]

You don't even have to think very hard, considering there's a prominent product that launched 2 years ago in December.

 

[9enesis]

mantle performance not sure if this had been posted ,but still funny

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHaYjVJaQqE


meanwhile

http://extremespec.net/amd-a10-7850k-a10-7700k-amazon/

 

[Lonbjerg]

mantle performance not sure if this had been posted ,but still funny

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHaYjVJaQqE

Carefull...some posters will eat this at face value :biggrin:

 

[bgt]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHaYjVJaQqE

Impressive if true

 

[Homeles]

Something's off there. Gameplay is far smoother in the first half of the video. Even if 400FPS was what you really got with Mantel, it's stuttery as hell.

 

[Lonbjerg]

Something's off there.*snip*

Really?
You think?

How people on a techforum cannot spot a troll video is beyond me

 

[Homeles]

Really?
You think?

How people on a techforum cannot spot a troll video is beyond me

I'm not really surprised that you look down on everyone. Regardless, I wasn't going to call fake because there are people around here that have sensitive feelings when it comes to AMD.