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Discussion in 'CPUs and Overclocking' started by Phynaz, Nov 13, 2012.
What if this is all a master plan by AMD that precedes their roaring comeback?
One can only dream...
Exclusive: AMD hires bank to explore options - sources
Not sure if I follow everything you wrote (you clearly know more about finance than I do). However, you usually can't sell "goodwill" on your balance sheet, but you do have to deal with long term debt in such a case, unless I'm mistaken. A liquidation sale will get you pennies on the dollar at best. Actually, an orderly liquidation will mean most of the money will go to the bondholders, so if that's what we're talking about he'll lose nearly everything!
I'm not sure you can bring up the stock price of any company November of 2008 as a valid comparison. You do remember what was happening back then? The current price is much more telling of reality than it was then.
I'm pretty sure their IP and other assets, like what's left of ATI, are already included in their assets. Cash reserves about half of what you say they are, if I'm reading it right. Not saying AMD can't be worth 1.5 billion, but that would be the market deciding that. There's nothing inside of AMD that suggests it's worth that much. Best case scenario for stock holders right now would be AMD or a part of it getting bought out by someone who's willing to deal with AMD's IP headaches and will overpay for it.
Really? They drop below their optimal cash target and respond by lowering the bar? That's as bad as the US Govt raising the debt ceiling every time they run out of money.
Not a chance. Intel has never been amicable with anything to my knowledge. The only way Intel would do so was if they were forced via government intervention.
Got a source for this? My memory is fuzzy when it comes to the revised AMD/Intel settlement agreement.
When their new agreement was brokered, there was of course a lot of discussion about this and copies of parts of the agreement were floating around, but when I looked for it the other day, I couldn't find much.
Consider me corrected then.
They still have too much debt on books though. I stand by my claim that their shares are overpriced still.
This is from the FTC agreement with Intel regarding the AMD/Intel settlement. I've highlighted the pertinent information. http://www.ftc.gov/os/adjpro/d9341/100804inteldo.pdf
If AMD is bought out, they must enter into negotiations regarding future cross license agreements and they are prevented from suing for one year.
Well you did say this quite emphatically:
You can read some of the new agreement here and here (PDF file)
Skimming over that info, what I get out of it is either AMD or Intel can cancel the cross patent agreement providing they give 60 days notice. If either company changes ownership beyond a certain criteria, the agreement is null. I don't know what happens if AMD goes under for good, but whatever happens to AMD they will be bought up by someone, and at that point the cross licensing agreement will have to be renegotiated. Either way it does not appear to be correct to say that Intel automatically has all rights to anything AMD64 related.
...then again I could be wrong because I don't speak legal babble.
ATI is not worthless. Their tech is sound. It's AMD and it's management that is ruining all of the potential ATI has.
That first link is the old cross license dated 2001. The new agreement is confidential and not available publicly. Your second link is the settlement agreement, not the cross license agreement.
They got beat by NVIDIA's smaller midrange chip. That may be even wose than Bulldozer.
You are correct. Can't seem to find the new agreement, I know some of it was released I remember reading it. Doesn't matter either way because AMD doesn't have much if any future in x86. And if anyone purchases AMD, the agreement will be renegotiated anyway. Which probably means Intel will become the only provider of x86 processors.
The only hope for consumers not being bent over by the Intel monopoly is ARM.
Yeah, they are so bad they now have a good 10% average lead on Nvidia. You must be immune to recent news.
The 7970 Ghz is faster than the GTX 680 in gaming and the entire 600 series GPUs are under powered when it comes to GPGPU thanks to their new architecture.
Add into that Nvidia's memory controller isn't even good enough for the GTX 670 & GTX 680 to fully use 4GB of memory. And of course the 660 TI's memory buss issues.
Nvidia is not beating AMD. It's always amusing to see the fan boy delusions in these situations.
A lot of companies leverage debt from operations in the hopes that the investments would payoff more than the interest bearing long term debt. So no matter how much debt any company has, if you don't have the cash flow to pay off your debts, than you run the risk of bankruptcy.
I think I speak for everyone when I say "Aww crap".
Nvidia was smart to make a gaming-focused chip to keep die sizes small, power consumption low, and gross-margins high.
The compute-oriented beast Kepler is selling for $3K+
There are more than a few people that would like to see AMD go out of business even though they would never admit it.
Valuation for a continued operation isn't the same of valuation for liquidation /asset sale. Do you think that the stock is overpriced for the former case, the later case or both?
Excellent news on the day I received my 7970! Fu(n)k my life.
At this point it would be both. A liquidation sale would be after AMD declares bankruptcy, which would imply that they continue to burn money until there's nothing left. Which means AMD would be worth next to nothing at that point. Problem is, the way things are going that would be inevitable anyways. Perhaps even as early as late 2013.
As of right now, the only real value AMD has is a bet that they'll manage to come up with something special and save themselves (ARM related for the most part). That's the only thing justifying even the $2 stock price. However no one would pay money to buy the company purely for that reason. Even worse the IP tangle AMD is in makes that even harder. So unless someone, like perhaps a Chinese company, who is willing to pay extra for access to certain markets and previously unaccessible IPs, and is willing to deal with the headache of buying AMD, then the stock for all intent and purposes is worth very little.
A sale for liquidation means that they can tap value they usually can't such as their patent portfolio, so unless you are implying that their entire patent portfolio is worth less than 1.4 billion, I don't see the stock overpriced for liquidation, but I agree that for a continued operation the stock is.
Not good.I for one do not want to see Intel without a competitor.