IDC, based on what you posted I have some speculation of my own.
This is assuming that Bulldozer will be shown at the July 15th HardOCP event. I doubt H would be advertising that unless they were 99.9% sure they'd have something to show, as their reputation would take a hit if Bulldozer didn't make an appearance.
Ok, continuing on, here's what I gathered from your post.
(A) enthusiasts are a non-factor in decisions for launch dates and releasing information
(B) for AMD, the consequences of releasing information on Bulldozer then missing launch dates are much worse (basically lost sales) than saying nothing at all (temporary fluctuations in stock prices)
(C) they do need to keep motherboard makers involved, but wouldn't a simple NDA solve that?
Anyways, if AMD is willing to show Bulldozer at the H event, they're on track for the updated August release...if they weren't, then showing Bulldozer would just cannibalize sales. Is this a decent conclusion? I can think of two alternative explanations.
First, maybe the showing will yield little useful information (i.e. play some games running on our Bulldozer processor).
Or second, maybe they're targeting the event towards enthusiasts, thinking businesses wont pay attention to the results. (I don't believe this, but I suppose it's possible).
Just having some fun with this, I'm sure there are a bunch of holes in my argument.
To (A) I would say we have to accept that there are no absolutes, its a matter of balancing the pro's and con's of all the various cause and effects summed up. Enthusiasts are a factor, just not to the extent that we'd like to apportion ourselves as being IMO.
To (B) I would say yes.
To (C) I would say the distinction needs to be made between leaked info (coming from necessary ES seeding for platform development) versus officially sanctioned information released to the public domain.
Assuming BD makes a showing, and I see no reason why it would not, we can be reasonably assured it will be showcased in the absolute best light possible in a very controlled situation. As such I'm not sure what value will come of it for the everyday enthusiast.
It will boost confidence in BD, if this wasn't assured beforehand then AMD simply wouldn't organize the showcasing. And for the small percentage of the market that is already intentionally sitting on their hands waiting for BD to arrive before upgrading to either SB or BD this showcasing will go some distance towards justifying that hand sitting.
[note: I am in this situation, a member of the "sitting on my hands" club waiting for BD to either justify me buying SB or compelling me to buy BD]
To be sure the [H] event does involve some risk as it will result in some consumers choosing to postpone July/Aug CPU purchases in lieu of the BD launch that is in the offing.
On the other hand the obvious intended upside is the prospect of garnering more visibility for Bulldozer amongst the consumers that currently associate AMD with second-best in CPU's. When the competition sells 5 cpus for your every 1 cpu, that's a lot of sales going to the competition that could be converted into the "sitting on their hands" club in a way that undermines the competition and not yourself.
Its a double-edged sword, but the edges are not equally sharp. One is slightly more dull compared to the other. (in a 5:1 ratio) So the key is to do your best to only cut yourself with the duller blade while wielding the thing.
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