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AMD CEO talks of long-term turnaround

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I remember wanting a 290x video card, but could not find one anywhere. They said because of the demand for cards was high for bitcoin collectors. AMD could not fulfill demand for months, if not years. They literally had nothing to sell. Though that is what happens when you outsource all your fabs, you can no longer hide bad forecasting or unpredictable fluctuations or shifts in demand. One thing having tons of inventory you cannot sell, but just as worse, missing opportunity to capture market share.
 
Regs said:
I remember wanting a 290x video card, but could not find one anywhere. They said because of the demand for cards was high for bitcoin collectors. AMD could not fulfill demand for months, if not years. They literally had nothing to sell. Though that is what happens when you outsource all your fabs, you can no longer hide bad forecasting or unpredictable fluctuations or shifts in demand. One thing having tons of inventory you cannot sell, but just as worse, missing opportunity to capture market share.
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One of many wrong assumptions due to mixed facts in this thread. Don't blame outsourcing AMD's fabs if TSMC was never part of them. 😉
 
rtsurfer said:
If only they hadn't sold Adreno.
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mrmt said:
They can develop it again. Cheaper and easier than a CPU core.
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rtsurfer said:
And sell it to whom.?
Almost all Android phones(popular ones) use Qualcomm.

If they can outdo Mali, then Apple could be a potential great customer, Samsung too; in some markets.

Then Intel is also competing in the Soc space, gotta deal with that "contra revenue'.
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Mediatek. Mediatek is upping their game by releasing flagship SoCs. All they need is a better GPU. AMD is rumored to deliver it.

http://www.extremetech.com/computin...-for-next-gen-smartphone-tablet-graphics-chip
 
Spinning off graphics (ATI, the best tech/IPs in the company) to alleviate the debt of the processor segment (AMD, the worst performing segment and outright uncompetitive) is a short term fool's errand IMO. AMD trashed ATIs position in the market so unless someone like Samsung, Intel, Apple, or MS are picking up ATI the spun off entity is doomed to decline. And AMD's processor offerings... uninspiring.

I don't think there is much hope for the company. I think their best market play is HBM with a midrange graphic performant APU. Basically a PS4 level PC with 8GB of high speed memory on an interposer. AMD would hit a number of check boxes cut out a lot of middle men.

# CPU. Solid, but not a world beater. NV and ARM still are not competitive in the massive x86 space so the goal would be to carve out solid margin segments from Intel. As AMD cannot best Intel in sheer x86 for a solid margin the CPU offering is only "price of entry" to support Windows. The compelling aspect has to come from...

# GPU. If given time Intel with eDRAM will blunt a major move by AMD with HBM. AMD needs to move. With a solid GPU on die AMD raises the bar for the non-discrete APU market. Offerings with NV require a discrete GPU which cannot be cost competitive compared to an APU and Intel isn't there (yet) in performance. OEMs are averse to pushing volume models with GPUs as it adds costs parents/students are rarely willing to splurge for as extras. But having a performant GPU "SOC" gives AMD a price advantage and "performance/features" win that Intel cannot match at this time. With 4K being the new "thing" AMD is in a great place to attack the must have feature with significant price😛erformance Intel and CPU+NV machines cannot match.

# Memory. By going with HBM AMD also captures some of the memory margin. The key is hitting 8GB of memory. If 4GB is too far off they should look at tiered memory (4GB HBM, 4-8GB of cheap system memory).

In total, if properly executed, AMD could offer system designers and builders a CPU+GPU+MEMORY bundle the competition cannot match in price/performance. AMD would capture the margins on the CPU+GPU+MEMORY and the 'package' would be a compelling product category. Pitched at the $600-$1000 desktop market and the $800-$1300 laptop market AMD could capture volume sales.

Being able to have an affordable solution that essentially has dGPU performance and best in class 4K experience would make a compelling sales point against the cheaper Desktop/Laptop offerings that cannot compete in performance. And against more expensive models with dGPU this offering has the advantage on price.

Cheap PCs << AMD HBM

AMD HBM >> CPU + dGPU

Big picture AMD has a compelling offering no one can match right now at their price. They can truly console level performance and best in class 4K at a great price. They are able to bundle/pitch the CPU/Memory/GPU and create buzz in a boring market segment.

If AMD cannot leverage ATI's technology for a compelling offering AMD has nothing of significance to be competitive long term. They are fabless. They have an x86 license that only allows them to compete for table scraps against Intel. Intel kills AMD in serve CPUs, big/fast CPUs, and small/power conscious x86. ARM has the low power segment covered.

The ATI IPs are their best option for a hail marry.

Selling them off pretty much tells me AMD is raising the flag and going to go silently into night without much of a struggle. A HBM APU, on the other hand, scratches a market itch and would offer something new and better not seen in the space for a long time.--for those reasons AMD will screw the pooch.

Maybe Intel will buy ATI ...
 
AMD spinning off the GPU division would be a really stupid idea.

Their uniqueness lies in being able to combine desktop/server x86 CPU + GPU + HBM.
 
Phynaz said:
I like the idea of spinning off graphics.
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They better do it fast. Their graphics value drops every day. And their only hope seems to be licensing GPU technology to others.

AMD is now a 1½B$ company. 53% loss last 52 weeks. And they are burning the candle in both ends.
 
AMD should be making an APU with HBM that is 4k capable in a NUC form factor not that abomination they are calling quantum whatever. And they need to do it now!
 
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They can't do it now. That kind of product is not ready yet. The "abomination" the are calling "quantum whatever" has an Intel CPU and 2x Fiji. It's a nice machine actually.
 
The CEO of AMD knows her stuff. Alas, it takes more than 1 person to run a company & to develop new tech. I'm quite bullish of AMD for the long term if their sales turn around toward 2016
 
hope the new ceo succeeds where pretty much all the others failed miserably. just once i wish amd would get a competent ceo that can turn the ship around.
 
NTMBK said:
Betting the future of AMD on cable companies moving rapidly seems like a bad idea. Have you looked at a cable box recently?
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Hi...missed your comments, I had to get off SemiAccurate for the reasons you commented on.

The FCC DSTAC is going to recommend a downloadable security system for CE platforms like TVs, game consoles including ARM and other STBs. For Vidipath capable Smart TVs which are also ATSC 2.0 ready, they are already DRM certified to support Common Encryption DRM which is the format that HTML <video> EME, 4K Digital bridge and likely the DSTAC will recommend and won't need a cable box or network tuner. All other STBs and game consoles will need a network tuner. When will it be implemented; 2016.

THE XB1 and PS4 will be 4K blu-ray players with digital bridge and Vidipath clients using WMDRM10 for DTCP-IP. As a digital bridge they will be hubs for the home and when they can be connected to a network tuner, will be DVRs and vidipath servers to other devices in the home. Besides supporting WMDRM10 which can't stream 4K media in the home, they will support Playready ND with Certificate Security Level of 3000 to allow streaming of 4K media and WMDRM10 to Playready ND conversion. Playready 3 (software porting kit 3 to TEE hardware like ARM trustzone) will no longer have WMDRM10 as a subset with Playready ND to replace it.

Because of the delay (from Dec 2012) in getting Vidipath started we are already looking at 4K media support from Cable TV. Vidipath DVRs (WMDRM10 for DTCP-IP) can't stream 4K but cable has plans to support a limited number of 4K channels late this year. No one is talking but Playready ND has this: Note that this model can also be applied to both live streams, video-on-demand and DVR content."

Back on topic: Zen CPUs are low power X-86 replacements for CAT CPUs and desktop CPUs. They are the higher efficiency replacements...more cores running at lower clocks are more efficient than one CPU at a higher clock. They are now possible with variable clocks/turbo modes, faster memory and VISC. Soft Machines Debuts VISC CPU Architecture With 3X Better IPC &#8211; AMD a Chief Investor

Zen CPUs come in blocks of 8, that is the same number in the PS4 and XB1. The following has 32MB L3 cache and the XB1's Jaguar CPUs have a special memory interface to the 32MB memory shared with the GPU. I think that allows them to use something like VISC for Xbox 360 cpu emulation.

AMD-x86-Zen-HBM-Greenland-GPU-APU-635x531.jpg
 
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Fjodor2001 said:
Sure, but I think the market will pay for an APU with 4-8 core Zen + latest GPU + HBM + 14 nm.
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AMD thought that the market would pay for 4 "Stars" cores + VLIW5 graphics (i.e. Llano). They didn't.
AMD thought that the market would pay for 2 Piledriver modules + VLIW4 graphics (i.e. Trinity/Richland). They didn't.
AMD thought that the market would pay for 2 Steamroller modules + GCN graphics (i.e. Kaveri/Godavari). They didn't.
AMD currently thinks that the mobile market will pay for 2 Excavator modules + GCN graphics (i.e. Carrizo). They likely won't, and it will probably only ever be used in 1024x768 Crapbooks.

Something tells me that their 5th attempt at market success with APUs will end like their first four.
 
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jeff_rigby said:
Hi...missed your comments, I had to get off SemiAccurate for the reasons you commented on.
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No worries! Good to see you posting again :thumbsup:

The FCC DSTAC is going to recommend a downloadable security system for CE platforms like TVs, game consoles including ARM and other STBs. For Vidipath capable Smart TVs which are also ATSC 2.0 ready, they are already DRM certified to support Common Encryption DRM which is the format that HTML <video> EME, 4K Digital bridge and likely the DSTAC will recommend and won't need a cable box or network tuner. All other STBs and game consoles will need a network tuner. When will it be implemented; 2016.

THE XB1 and PS4 will be 4K blu-ray players with digital bridge and Vidipath clients using WMDRM10 for DTCP-IP. As a digital bridge they will be hubs for the home and when they can be connected to a network tuner, will be DVRs and vidipath servers to other devices in the home. Besides supporting WMDRM10 which can't stream 4K media in the home, they will support Playready ND with Certificate Security Level of 3000 to allow streaming of 4K media and WMDRM10 to Playready ND conversion. Playready 3 (software porting kit 3 to TEE hardware like ARM trustzone) will no longer have WMDRM10 as a subset with Playready ND to replace it.

Because of the delay (from Dec 2012) in getting Vidipath started we are already looking at 4K media support from Cable TV. Vidipath DVRs (WMDRM10 for DTCP-IP) can't stream 4K but cable has plans to support a limited number of 4K channels late this year. No one is talking but Playready ND has this: Note that this model can also be applied to both live streams, video-on-demand and DVR content."
Click to expand...

I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see the PS4 and XBox One help push 4k- games consoles are the most popular streaming boxes, after all, and Sony are keen to sell some 4K televisions!

Back on topic: Zen CPUs are low power X-86 replacements for CAT CPUs and desktop CPUs. They are the higher efficiency replacements...more cores running at lower clocks are more efficient than one CPU at a higher clock. They are now possible with variable clocks/turbo modes, faster memory and VISC. Soft Machines Debuts VISC CPU Architecture With 3X Better IPC – AMD a Chief Investor

Zen CPUs come in blocks of 8, that is the same number in the PS4 and XB1.

AMD-x86-Zen-HBM-Greenland-GPU-APU-635x531.jpg
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Not sure where you are getting blocks of 8 from? That looks like blocks of 4, 4 separate clusters each sharing their own L3 slice. (Same setup in the PS4 and XBox One actually, two clusters of four, each with its own L2.)

I'm not sure what power range the Zen core will run over yet- the (seemingly fake) roadmap leaked a few months ago claimed that we might see 2-core Zen in tablet SoCs, similar to Intel's Core M, which seems feasible but hasn't shown up on any of officially released roadmaps.

I doubt we'll see VISC turn up in Zen- it's a very new technique, and Zen has been in development for a long time. Not to mention the last time AMD gambled on a revolutionary new architectural paradigm, they ended up with Bulldozer. I would expect something a little more conservative this time around, if only for psychological reasons!
 
jeff_rigby said:
Back on topic: Zen CPUs are low power X-86 replacements for CAT CPUs and desktop CPUs. They are the higher efficiency replacements...more cores running at lower clocks are more efficient than one CPU at a higher clock.
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How long until one designs an ARM or MIPS MPU with 4K custom hardware that will be much smaller, cheaper and efficient than any AMD product and take this set top box market away?
 
VISC is very unlikely. As is MorphCore (the multiplexers cost more than just 2.5% clock frequency). A 4 wide CISC with SMT, adaptive units and caches! and checkpointing plus some other neat things is what I do expect to see.
 
svenge said:
AMD thought that the market would pay for 4 "Stars" cores + VLIW5 graphics (i.e. Llano). They didn't.
AMD thought that the market would pay for 2 Piledriver modules + VLIW4 graphics (i.e. Trinity/Richland). They didn't.
AMD thought that the market would pay for 2 Steamroller modules + GCN graphics (i.e. Kaveri/Godavari). They didn't.
AMD currently thinks that the mobile market will pay for 2 Excavator modules + GCN graphics (i.e. Carrizo). They likely won't, and it will probably only ever be used in 1024x768 Crapbooks.

Something tells me that their 5th attempt at market success with APUs will end like their first four.
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In general I agree with this. If the 7850k launched with about 2x the IGP performance, AMD would have a monster seller. As it stands by the time they get to that level, Intel will also be there with similar IGP performance should they wish it.

If AMD had an actual APU that seamlessly leveraged GPGPU to offset the slower cores, they'd also have a more compelling argument. But Llano, Trinity, and Richland aren't APUs. Kaveri is close, but still really isn't one.
 
Jovec said:
If AMD had an actual APU that seamlessly leveraged GPGPU to offset the slower cores, they'd also have a more compelling argument. But Llano, Trinity, and Richland aren't APUs. Kaveri is close, but still really isn't one.
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Easier said than done. AMd would need a lot of software support for it to work, and we know how awful AMD devrel is.
 
It sure looks like consumers still aren't buying PCs, and aren't interested in Windows 10. Corporations might buy into Windows 10, but it probably won't be until 2017 and they don't buy AMD anyway.

I say 50-50 Zen even gets released. And if it does, they will find out very quickly that what they are pushing isn't what the market wants (ie: decent performance at as low power possible).
 
jpiniero said:
It sure looks like consumers still aren't buying PCs, and aren't interested in Windows 10. Corporations might buy into Windows 10, but it probably won't be until 2017 and they don't buy AMD anyway.

I say 50-50 Zen even gets released. And if it does, they will find out very quickly that what they are pushing isn't what the market wants (ie: decent performance at as low power possible).
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The market does not want only one thing. I'm pretty sure an APU such as the one I exemplified will appeal to a lot of consumers.

But they can of course make for example a "2 core Zen + fewer GPU cores + less HBM + 14 nm SKU" too, to cover the "low power and good enough" segment.

So the APU I exemplified doesn't have to be the only APU based on Zen of course. Just as AMD have lots of various versions of their APUs today.
 
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