Here's the data on the max temps for the current Palominos from AMD's web site:
1500+ 1.75V 60W
1600+ 1.75V 62.8W
1700+ 1.75V 64W
1800+ 1.75V 66W
1900+ 1.75V 68W
2000+ 1.75V 70W
2100+ 1.75V 72W (projected)
2200+ 1.75V 74W (projected)
That given, the numbers listed for Thoroughbred seem reasonable:
1900+ 1.65V 61.8W
2000+ 1.65V 63.8W
2100+ 1.65V 65.9W
2200+ 1.65V 67.9W
2300+ 1.65V 70.0W
2400+ 1.65V 72.0W
2500+ 1.65V 74.1W
The temperatures are about what most of us expected, I think, given AMD's existing use of an advanced process with copper interconnects. The Thoroughbred 2100+ dissipates about the same amount of heat as the Palomino 1800+, the Thoroughbred 2400+ dissipates about as much heat as the new Palomino 2100+, etc.
In a whitepaper, AMD quoted 70W for a 2GHz (2500+) XP with SOI (Barton). Thus, at identical speed, it looks like Thoroughbred will reduce heat by 6W to 7W, and Barton will reduce heat another 4W. Clearly, that's how AMD expects to reach 2600+ and 2800+ on the .13um process. The figures, which PC Magazine says are from AMD (and we have no reason to doubt them), pretty much eliminate the possibility of the Athlon ever exceeding the 3000+ rating on the .13um process, even with SOI. Of course...that's why they have Clawhammer.
As far as overclocking goes, the current Palomino AGOGA core will run stable aircooled at up to ~73W (1.76GHz). The new AIOGA core used in the 2100+ looks like it should run stable with air cooling at up to 75W. The Thoroughbred 2500+ @ 2.0GHz dissipates 74.1W over a much smaller 80mm^2 surface area. Personally, I doubt Thoroughbred will go higher than 2.1GHz with air cooling and perhaps 2.2GHz with water cooling.
One thing is for sure, though, assuming these numbers from PC Magazine are correct; there is no way in hell the Thoroughbred is going to overclock to 2500MHz. At 2500MHz, the Thoroughbred would dissipate 90W of heat over the space of an 80mm^2 core. I haven't done the math, but I think it may be theoretically impossible to dissipate that much heat over that sized space.