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AMD announces move to 32nm in 09

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Martimus

Diamond Member
Apr 24, 2007
4,490
157
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Originally posted by: Idontcare
Originally posted by: keysplayr2003
Well, at least we can maybe finally see some 3GHz or better parts from AMD (post X2).

And some nice low power too.

They've got to address the power consumption side of things if they ever think they are going to fit 12 cores (Magny-Cours) into a single socket and have the GHz remain at a respectable number while keeping the TDP below 140W.

32nm, particularly the HK/MG aspects, will help them nail that.

It does look like the 45nm shrink helped quite a bit with their power problems.
 

Hard Ball

Senior member
Jul 3, 2005
594
0
0
Originally posted by: Phynaz

And 48 hours later AMD announces 32nm in 2011.

At least the standard of reporting at the Inq. hasn't gotten any worse.

Actually neither is true;

AMD will be producing 32nm server products in 2H10, and move desktop parts to 32nm in early 2011. So nothing has really changed, AMD is still lagging behind Intel in terms of the manufacturing front by the same margin as since the 65nm transition in Q4 of 05; when Intel shortened their process node from 90->65 to about 20 months.
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
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I am steal reading it as 32nm. in 09. BUt it would seem that its the ATI chips . Which still has me confused as I believe it was stated that TSMC was going from 40nm. to 28nm .
 

Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
10,140
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Originally posted by: Hard Ball
Originally posted by: Phynaz

And 48 hours later AMD announces 32nm in 2011.

At least the standard of reporting at the Inq. hasn't gotten any worse.

Actually neither is true;

AMD will be producing 32nm server products in 2H10, and move desktop parts to 32nm in early 2011. So nothing has really changed, AMD is still lagging behind Intel in terms of the manufacturing front by the same margin as since the 65nm transition in Q4 of 05; when Intel shortened their process node from 90->65 to about 20 months.

Actually if you look at the slides, 32 nm bulk silicon is planned to be in production in 2H10, the Radeon GPU's. Although not in the slides, AMD stated today SOI 32nm cpu's are planned for sometime in 2011.

"Allen also described for the first time AMD's plans for 32 nm processors it will now deliver in 2011."

I'd post the link to the EETimes article, but it keeps putting my session id in it. You should be able to find it.

 

Viditor

Diamond Member
Oct 25, 1999
3,290
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Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Originally posted by: Phynaz

And 48 hours later AMD announces 32nm in 2011.

At least the standard of reporting at the Inq. hasn't gotten any worse.

I dont know why anyone links to that website.

As I was trying to say earlier, The Inq actually has it quite right...it's just being misinterpreted in this thread.

"these will come end of 2009, when the company begins the transition to 32nm"

As I said, it takes about 6 months for that transition, which puts production in H2 2010.
The Inq also said that it was to be bulk silicon first, followed by SOI.
The ATI chips are bulk, the CPUs are SOI (at least today).
 

Hard Ball

Senior member
Jul 3, 2005
594
0
0
Originally posted by: Phynaz
Originally posted by: Hard Ball
Originally posted by: Phynaz

And 48 hours later AMD announces 32nm in 2011.

At least the standard of reporting at the Inq. hasn't gotten any worse.

Actually neither is true;

AMD will be producing 32nm server products in 2H10, and move desktop parts to 32nm in early 2011. So nothing has really changed, AMD is still lagging behind Intel in terms of the manufacturing front by the same margin as since the 65nm transition in Q4 of 05; when Intel shortened their process node from 90->65 to about 20 months.

Actually if you look at the slides, 32 nm bulk silicon is planned to be in production in 2H10, the Radeon GPU's. Although not in the slides, AMD stated today SOI 32nm cpu's are planned for sometime in 2011.

"Allen also described for the first time AMD's plans for 32 nm processors it will now deliver in 2011."

I'd post the link to the EETimes article, but it keeps putting my session id in it. You should be able to find it.

Uhh, no;

There actually has been no definitive mention of the timing of the move to 32nm on MPUs overall today, that I am aware of. Today's information regarding the 32nm move centers around the arrival of the next-gen cores on 32nm for client platforms (orochi, llano, ontario); acutally said nothing about server MPUs at all, on when that would move to 32nm.

I have some preliminary information on bulldozer's microarchitecture from acquaintences in the industry, although it's a bit dated by now (about 12 months).


 

Hard Ball

Senior member
Jul 3, 2005
594
0
0
Originally posted by: Phynaz
Uhh..Yes

Third slide here.

Look under SOI - no dates.

Look under the bulk heading, "Ramp up on ATI Radeon GPUs planned"


Here's a better slide, 32nm cpus in 2011.

That is true; but quite irrelevant to the discussion here. No one is talking about that slide "tape outs accepted in late 2009 with early 2010 production ramp planned". But there is simply no mention of when MPU production on 32nm would begin, as far as I know.

 

classy

Lifer
Oct 12, 1999
15,219
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Originally posted by: Elias824
Looking at amd's past, I dont have a doubt intel will beat them to 32nm by at least a few months.

I agree. I like AMD but, to announce a move to 32nm and you can't even get product released on time and competitive at 45nm is a waste of time. They have no credibility.
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,110
64
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Originally posted by: Viditor
As I said, it takes about 6 months for that transition, which puts production in H2 2010.
The Inq also said that it was to be bulk silicon first, followed by SOI.
The ATI chips are bulk, the CPUs are SOI (at least today).

Does this put an end to the previously disclosed plan to release two variants of 45nm?

I haven't seen AMD discuss the move to 45nm HK/MG and ULK BEOL since those initial slides, and now it seems like all those plans have been pushed out to 32nm release.

edit: just came across this slide:
http://news.ati-forum.de/image...ski/News/2008/32nm.jpg

So that answers the question.

On a side note...anyone else look at the slide I linked and think it is kinda odd/sad that the technology highlight AMD has for their 45nm node is immersion litho? A tool and process you buy turnkey from a vendor, like the myriad of other tools purchased for the same?

Usually you try and highlight technology you actually invented yourself when you are assembling a slide titled "technology leadership roadmap". At least they showed they understand that desire given the process technology features highlighted for all the other nodes.

AMD: "the coolest thing about what we bring to the 45nm technology field is that we bought a commercially available scanner and we used it..."
 

Viditor

Diamond Member
Oct 25, 1999
3,290
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Originally posted by: Idontcare


On a side note...anyone else look at the slide I linked and think it is kinda odd/sad that the technology highlight AMD has for their 45nm node is immersion litho? A tool and process you buy turnkey from a vendor, like the myriad of other tools purchased for the same?

I'm not sure what you mean here...AMD was the one of the first to go with immersion litho. Intel chose to hold on immersion litho until 32nm, so they still have the "hard yards" ahead of them.
What vendor sells a turnkey 45nm immersion litho line for SOI that fits into APM 3.0 systems?
I would have thought those were custom designed tools...am I wrong?

I'd like to make another point here...
As I said, for 45nm AMD went to their first generation of immersion litho, while Intel used double patterning of their existing 65nm process while adding HKMG.
For 32nm, it will be reversed...
AMD will be going with double patterning and adding HKMG, while Intel will be working their first immersion litho chips.
All in all, 32nm will be much tougher for Intel than it will be for AMD, but that says nothing about results...
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,110
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Originally posted by: Viditor
Originally posted by: Idontcare
On a side note...anyone else look at the slide I linked and think it is kinda odd/sad that the technology highlight AMD has for their 45nm node is immersion litho? A tool and process you buy turnkey from a vendor, like the myriad of other tools purchased for the same?

I'm not sure what you mean here...AMD was the one of the first to go with immersion litho. Intel chose to hold on immersion litho until 32nm, so they still have the "hard yards" ahead of them.
What vendor sells a turnkey 45nm immersion litho line for SOI that fits into APM 3.0 systems?
I would have thought those were custom designed tools...am I wrong?

You have to understand what litho is and does, it is invariant to substrate type. Bulk Si and SOI do not get different litho approaches. You do have different implant, etch, and cleans.

But again it is rather unusual to put a particular piece of equipment forward as your best feature of an entire process node. As I stated, look at the other node assets that AMD highlights and you can see (even without being a process development engineer) which of those things doesn't belong there.

As for the "hard yards" comment...it is true AMD was first (of the two) to implement Cu and low-k, but it certainly wasn't to Intel's detriment that they held onto Al and SiO2 for an extra node.

We can speculate whether Intel or AMD has more or less experience with immersion litho at this point, but consider AMD is releasing their immersion supported 45nm node nearly (or at least) a full year after Intel.

Had they released immersion 45nm the same time as Intel released double-pattern dry 193nm litho then you could have some merit pressing on the issue as a point of distinguishment between the two.

At any rate it is laughable to me that any company in this business would highlight a tool they purchased (one that anyone else can purchase from the same supplier) as the key technology attribute of their 4yrs of process development effort. Immersion litho is not something that makes any difference to the device's performance, it is entirely for improving yields (or decreasing the yield loss from litho passes as it were).

The fact that the integrated device from Intel's 45nm node contains HK/MG is what improves it's performance, not that it uses a disposable gate (replacement gate) with the metal gate added post CMP and poly-si strip. When you cut open a Shanghai chip and analyze the process technology you are not going to find a layer in there with a label saying "hi, thanks to immersion litho this part of my in the xtor is performing waaayy better, thanks for asking".

Uhg, this is turning into a pointless rant. I just wanted to make a passing observation, if anything a tinge of disappointment. It might be too much of an inside joke that only the handful of process development engineers here would get because it takes a backdrop of the work experience to communicate the funniness of it I suppose.

I love immersion litho (we had it at TI too, for 45nm deployment), if optimized and leveraged to its full potential it will improve yields and reduce cycle time. But it won't make 3GHz chips run at 4GHz and it won't make 100W processors consume 50W. HK/MG does that, ULK helps with that. Basically all the features they promised for 45nm that are now being pushed off to 32nm.
 

Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
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Originally posted by: Viditor
Originally posted by: Idontcare


On a side note...anyone else look at the slide I linked and think it is kinda odd/sad that the technology highlight AMD has for their 45nm node is immersion litho? A tool and process you buy turnkey from a vendor, like the myriad of other tools purchased for the same?

I'm not sure what you mean here...AMD was the one of the first to go with immersion litho. Intel chose to hold on immersion litho until 32nm, so they still have the "hard yards" ahead of them.
What vendor sells a turnkey 45nm immersion litho line for SOI that fits into APM 3.0 systems?
I would have thought those were custom designed tools...am I wrong?

I'd like to make another point here...
As I said, for 45nm AMD went to their first generation of immersion litho, while Intel used double patterning of their existing 65nm process while adding HKMG.
For 32nm, it will be reversed...
AMD will be going with double patterning and adding HKMG, while Intel will be working their first immersion litho chips.
All in all, 32nm will be much tougher for Intel than it will be for AMD, but that says nothing about results...

You must not realize you don't use immersion lithography unless you have to.

Immersion lithography is a "have to do", not a "want to do". It's inherently more expensive.

The fact the Intel didn't have to use immersion at 45nm is a testament to their better process technology.
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
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I could have sworn that I read that with AMDs 45nm Immersion lithography. The move to 32nm is a easy move. I assume the same applies to Intel AT 32nm and 22nm.

 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,366
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Remember when INTEL announced the new metal gates. IBM said ya me and AMD have that also .. Now after this amount of time I call BS on IBM and AMD was a victom.

I am still confused on the 32nm AMD thing . Bare with me.

in O9 NV ati are going to 40nm . seems to me if TSMC has the 32nm ready in late 09. I can't see ATI letting NV get the jump on them. 6 months would be bad. bad .
 

CTho9305

Elite Member
Jul 26, 2000
9,214
1
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Originally posted by: Phynaz
Immersion lithography is a "have to do", not a "want to do". It's inherently more expensive.

The fact the Intel didn't have to use immersion at 45nm is a testament to their better process technology.

Intel does a double-exposure, don't they? Isn't that pretty costly? Does it result in any additional design rules that adversely affect area?
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,366
2
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Originally posted by: Viditor
Originally posted by: Idontcare


On a side note...anyone else look at the slide I linked and think it is kinda odd/sad that the technology highlight AMD has for their 45nm node is immersion litho? A tool and process you buy turnkey from a vendor, like the myriad of other tools purchased for the same?

I'm not sure what you mean here...AMD was the one of the first to go with immersion litho. Intel chose to hold on immersion litho until 32nm, so they still have the "hard yards" ahead of them.
What vendor sells a turnkey 45nm immersion litho line for SOI that fits into APM 3.0 systems?
I would have thought those were custom designed tools...am I wrong?

I'd like to make another point here...
As I said, for 45nm AMD went to their first generation of immersion litho, while Intel used double patterning of their existing 65nm process while adding HKMG.
For 32nm, it will be reversed...
AMD will be going with double patterning and adding HKMG, while Intel will be working their first immersion litho chips.
All in all, 32nm will be much tougher for Intel than it will be for AMD, but that says nothing about results...

Well Viditor thats the way I heard it also. But keep in mind Intel has already shown us 32nm sil. So maybe intel is ontop of this along time ago . Intel probably installed the equipment befor AMD. AT 45 intel choose to bring us 1 part of a 2 step plane. That being the easy part first HKMD. The second part being the harder to do . That being 3D gates . I am sure and will bet that AMDs 32nm HKMD will be better than Intels present HKMD. Pretty sure AMDs will be finfet that why intel will bring 3D gates at 32nm.

 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,110
64
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Originally posted by: CTho9305
Originally posted by: Phynaz
Immersion lithography is a "have to do", not a "want to do". It's inherently more expensive.

The fact the Intel didn't have to use immersion at 45nm is a testament to their better process technology.

Intel does a double-exposure, don't they? Isn't that pretty costly? Does it result in any additional design rules that adversely affect area?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_patterning

The downsides to double-patterning are cost - your wafers have inherently higher cycle time owing to the extra processing steps.

To my knowledge the only IC-level performance impacting factor that can come from double-pattern is dependent on your alignment spec and allowed reworks...all of which comes back to cost if you decide to not let it impact performance. Don't want to deal with a lot of reworks from wafers failing your alignment spec then you just loosen the design rules for accepted variation in spacing (higher leakage, more CV capacitance variance, TDDB impact) and/or you loosen your pitch a tad (say 5nm) and loose a little of your areal scaling and clock propagation to buffer against the variability.

Or you tighten your alignment spec and allow for more photo reworks (adds cycle time...which adds costs and decreases yield). All of this is identical by the way to how the fabs manage single-exposure litho loops too, this isn't a new invention of management infrastructure with all the associated overhead.

When it comes to cost though you really have to ask the question which is costlier - delaying a 45nm shrink by 12 months in order to get your single-pattern immersion litho (expensive in its own right) yielding to entitlement yields while shipping 65nm product for those 12 months, or shipping 45nm product for 12 months with each wafer bearing an incremental cost structure associated with a handful of double-pattern steps.

Of course it really (naturally) comes down to risk management. Years ago very early in the 45nm development cycle when each company was setting about spice model targets the decision was made as to which litho technology would be pursued to enable the process to meet the spice targets that the design groups were using in parallel.

For TI, and AMD, the decision came down to pursuing immersion. For Intel, prolly because they were pursuing a timeline about 6 months ahead of us, they chose double-pattern. 6 months is a big difference in terms of equipment maturity and process maturity. Had AMD decided 4 yrs ago that 45nm would ramp to volume in Q1'08 then they probably would have decided immersion was just too risky/aggressive an item to jeopardize missing such a release timeline over.
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,366
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I am tring to find recent info on AMDs finfet design . Not having much luck. I found this in my Word documents .Have know idea were it come from . I will keep looking for current FinFet for AMD.

Compared to today's planar transistors, tri-gate transistors use three gates instead of only one. According to Mike Mayberry, vice president and director of component research at Intel, the addition of two gates allows the company to increase the amount of current running through the transistor and decrease leakage since current can be routed into three different channels. First tri-gate transistors apparently have been manufactured and Mayberry claimed that 65 nm versions offer a 45% increase in speed or 50x reduction in "off"-current when compared to regular planar transistors.
 

OneOfTheseDays

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2000
7,052
0
0
It's funny how everyone ignores Nemesis's insane ramblings. The guy is so batshit insane he doesn't realize that nobody is paying any attention to his posts.
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,110
64
91
We are like a family here in the CPU forum, and every family has that one uncle who always seems like they are either over-medicated or need to be medicated.

But nonetheless you love them for who they are despite the crazy things they do and say.

It doesn't hurt to read the posts, although some times it does result in the reader screaming out "ohhh, mine eyez!".

It not that what gets posted is implausible, it's just that because what gets posted seems to be born from an ensemble of press release items it naturally tends to lack practicality when applied to the posited timeline...as with all marketing materials related to technology advancements; they usually (intentionally) lack the other half of the story which the engineers who work on such things already know about from their everyday experiences (but they can't publicly discuss for the obvious reasons).

I like reading the posts because it paints the corner condition of the absolute most aggressive technology cadence possible in the absence of fiscal responsibility as well as the absence of barriers that prove difficult to surmount once tackled. (think EUV, or projections of itanium revenue and market share)

To put it mildly, there are no rosier futures to contemplate than to read a Nemesis post, and who wants to crap on that by posting rebuttals? Tri-gates at 32nm? Sure, ok, bring it. Am I going to count on it? Not one iota, not anymore than I am counting on Finfet's coming at 22nm or CNT xtors at 16nm. We'll be on planar CMOS with HK/MG for the foreseeable future, but we can dream a little dream can't we? And in that dream Intel rolls 3D gates at 32nm, now then lets all drink some koolaid shall we? :)
 

Hard Ball

Senior member
Jul 3, 2005
594
0
0
Originally posted by: Hard Ball
Originally posted by: Phynaz
Uhh..Yes

Third slide here.

Look under SOI - no dates.

Look under the bulk heading, "Ramp up on ATI Radeon GPUs planned"


Here's a better slide, 32nm cpus in 2011.

That is true; but quite irrelevant to the discussion here. No one is talking about that slide "tape outs accepted in late 2009 with early 2010 production ramp planned". But there is simply no mention of when MPU production on 32nm would begin, as far as I know.

Here is some more clarification on the situations, this is a good article on the subject matter from THG:
TG Daily; AMD unlikely to gain ground on Intel at 32 nm. Does it matter?

Background

Let?s step back first and let me briefly explain some background on AMD?s process migration claims. Back in the Q3 2006 AMD conference call, then president and COO Dirk Meyer told analysts and press that AMD had accelerated its manufacturing roadmap and was planning on shipping 45 nm processors within 18 months, which translated to June or July 2008. The goal was to cut the distance to Intel?s manufacturing advantage (12 months at the time) in half. These days we often hear the company talking about the fact that Shanghai has been delivered early, which is about 50% true. The Shanghai chip itself was planned for a Q1 2009 rollout, according to AMD, but if we remember that mid-2008 45 nm promise, the CPU is about five or six months late. So there was not really any gain on Intel.

A couple months ago, I was talking to AMD senior vice president Randy Allen - after he claimed during a pre-IDF AMD briefing that Shanghai would be delivered early ? and asked him to clarify AMD?s ?early? statement. He told me that he would have to look back at Dirk Meyer?s claims. However, Allen admitted that AMD has not gained any ground on Intel, in terms of manufacturing technology, with 45 nm. But he mentioned that he would expect to decrease the distance with following product generations. 32 nm, 22 nm and so on.

Back then, I wrote that very few would care about the time when AMD is transitioning to a new process (exception: financial analysts). In the end I am not buying CPU nanometers when I am buying a new PC. And if AMD can squeeze more time out of 65/45 nm than Intel - especially through their immersion lithography advantage - good for them. But that is not what we hear.

The problem really is that AMD continues to make a big deal out of the whole manufacturing process message and, if you listen closely, that message tends to get screwed up and changed along the way. That was no different during today?s 32 nm news, which had some very interesting and surprising tidbits about the introduction and technology the company uses. And I was interested if AMD would actually be able to catch up with Intel, as indicated by Allen.

Allen with his usual bag of half-truths, especially in terms of the manufacturing side. As occurred before, there has been more promises of FUTURE shortening of process nodes that usually don't materialize as time progresses. In fact, the only time that timing has changed in last decade or so, where AMD process significantly shortened the gap was during the 250->180nm transition; and that they ceded back to Intel during the two successive transitions.


32 nm, take 1

Very early in the presentation (slide 16 for those who kept count and followed the presentations; you can see the slides including roadmap charts in our slideshow), a slide shown by president and CEO Dirk Meyer mentioned that 32 nm products will be finalized for a 2010 production. If you have followed AMD for some time, then you may have noticed that the company has kept a fairly consistent product introduction pattern in terms of server/desktop products. AMD server CPUs are often rolled out first during major technology refreshes (exception: 65 nm introduction), while the desktop chips follow 60 ? 90 days later. But the news here is that AMD 32 nm CPUs in fact are coming in 2010. Let?s see if other speakers spill more information.

Also as noted, by and large, AMD introduces server parts on a new architecture or process node significantly before client parts; with a couple of notable exceptions (65nm transitions, partly because of the decision to focus on low cost 512K L2 parts and barcelona development and validation). And the current transition is no exception. This can range from sever parts preceding by a few weeks (SC -> DC Opteron in April 2005) to 5/6 months (Original K8 introduction).

32 nm, take 2

Randy Allen was up next, but strangely enough, the server roadmap described by the executive did not highlight any nanometers and the 2010 timeframe did not include any 32 nm processors as far as we are aware of. The chart showed the Magny Cours and Sao Paulo 8- and 12-core CPUs, which are generally believed to be 45 nm parts. So, the obvious question was: Will AMD miss the 2010 timeframe with its server products? I continued to listen. Allen showed the desktop roadmap on slide 75. The audience was told that the 2011 Orochi processor will be the company?s first 32 nm client processor. Wait a second: 2011? More than 12 months behind Intel? And does that mean a server chip that was not mentioned on the server roadmap will precede Orochi?

Earlier in the day, a press release stated that the Deneb 45 nm (desktop) quad-core (Phenom X4 II) will be released in Q1 2009. That would mean that the 32 nm desktop chip will still be more than one year behind Intel, as it was the case with 65 nm and it is now with 45 nm. The good news, of course is, that if Orochi will be released in early 2011, a server product could make it into 2010, if the Barcelona and Shanghai product introduction strategy will repeat itself. Or, if we remember the 65 nm introduction (in which desktop CPUs preceded server CPUs), the server CPU could miss 2010. Allen had no further information on this topic, so I hoped for more information from the next speaker.

The only clear roadmap for 32nm parts from AMD are the client MPUs on the next-gen execution core, there just isn't any clear information or guidance given about other product lines on that node.

32 nm, take 3

Doug Grose, who will head up the recently introduced Foundry Company (as opposed to AMD, ?The Product Company?), which will primarily produce semiconductors for AMD, noted on slide 118 that the company will focus on developing a 32 nm process in 2009 and that 32 nm chips could be in production in the first half of 2010 (slide 122). He noted that a 32 nm SRAM chip was planned for a Q4 2008 production (which is usually the first test chip for a new manufacturing process). 32 nm tape-outs are scheduled for 2009 and a production ramp is planned for ?early 2010? ? which, however, referred to bulk processors and ATI graphics chips and not AMD CPUs. This reminded me of Meyer?s earlier slide statement of a 2010 32 nm production. Did Meyer refer to bulk (=GPU) or SOI/high-K production (=CPU)? He did not refer to anything as he skipped the 32 nm note entirely during his presentation (But I guess he meant CPUs since there was a 40 nm GPU note as well).

If everything goes to plan, The Foundry Company will be able to begin production of ?high-performance? processors in the Q1/Q2 2010 time frame. 32 nm bulk chip production capability will be achieved in Q4 2009 / Q1 2010 and low power high-K processors will follow in Q1/Q2 2010, Grose said.

So, when will we see AMD 32 nm processors and will AMD be able to cut down the distance to Intel? Obviously 32 nm was a big deal for AMD executives during the day, even if the information of a 32 nm server chip was completely left out of all presentations. During the following Q&A, Allen was asked when a ?completely new core? will be released by AMD. He referred that it would really depend on the point of view what a completely new core is and in AMD?s view, even the 45 nm Shanghai has been re-engineered and could be described as a new core. But he ended up noting that new (32 nm) CPUs (Bulldozer and Bobcat) with a ?new pipeline? and a ?radical change? would be released in 2011. Nathan Brookwood from Insight 64 also jumped on the new core and 32 nm question and asked whether we are talking about a 2010 or 2011 introduction date of 32 nm. He was told that 2010 would be the time and the fact that it appeared like 2011 in the presentations was because of the ?calendar breaks? in the presentation graphics.

It is pretty clear that they are specifically vague on the point of the next node transition, with the hope of shortening Intel's lead on this front; but not really confident about whether it can actually pull that off, and clearly does not want to repeat the same mistake in promises made about the 45nm node. The safest bet is really still during 2H10, but it is just to far off to know that with much certainty.

2010? 2011?

I?d be lying if I said I wasn?t confused at this point. 2010? 2011? And if 2010, when in 2010? And what will we see in 2011? When can we expect the server chip?

I decided it was a good idea to contact AMD?s Jon Carvill, who will head up PR for The Foundry Company, and ask him for help to clear up what we should expect from a 32 nm migration. Carvill got quickly back to me stating that the first 32 nm client product (Orochi) will ramp in the second half of 2010 and see a late 2010 or early 2011 introduction date. Volume production is planned for the first half of 2011, Carvill said. ?With these dates in mind, the 32 nm product transition is following a similar cadence of both 65 nm and 45 nm,? he said. Of course, that means that AMD expects to keep the two year update in place, which is in line with Intel, but it also means that AMD is unlikely to gain any ground on Intel.

Carvill said that AMD has ?not specified process technology in the next-gen server portfolio.?

So, is this good news or bad news? For financial analysts it might be considered bad news as a transition of process technologies also impacts the economy of scale. But what about the consumer? The fact is that it really does not matter. 2010 or 2011, who cares?

And even throwing more uncertainty into the equation, it is not really known at this time whether the final plan would be to introduce only the new microarchitecture on 32nm or would there be some server K10 derivatives that would be produced on the new node; that will make a significant difference if the new manufacturing node would actually be ready in earliest hoped timeframe.

Conclusion

I admit, I have been very picky with the 32 nm message in this article, but if AMD makes a big deal about 45 nm and the 32 nm transition, if it promises that it will catch up with its rival and three months later says it won?t, shouldn?t we make a big deal about it as well? If we hear that certain chips are early when in fact they are late, shouldn?t we expect a more consistent message? Somehow it appears that the message of 32 nm isn?t exactly aligned with every executive in the company and a possible introduction date of 32 nm processors is all over the 2010 plate, reaching even into 2011.

Or AMD simply got tired of being pinned down by journalists and questions that start with ?but back then you said ??. What we seem to know now, however, is that AMD will not be able to decrease the manufacturing distance to Intel with the 32 nm generation of products either, as indicated by Randy Allen a few months ago, at least if Intel can keep its current late 2009 introduction date. I wouldn?t go as far as saying that the 32 nm chips are slated for a late introduction already, and frankly, I don?t care whether it is 2010 and 2011. But as long as AMD puts such a great focus on it and pairs it with a relatively inconsistent message, I am sure that journalists and analysts will make a big deal out of it as well.

THG is correct in concluding this, that AMD is intentionally reticent about its future plans for 32nm, and really went out of its way to make sure that no commitment about the 32nm transition be on the record for this Analyst meeting.

It is really beyond me that anyone in this forum can draw definitive conclusions about when the 32nm introduction would be, from a few slides on which AMD intentionally tried to keep mum about its 32nm introduction of performance SOI parts; especially given that AMD itself does not want to publicly commit to anything, and may not even know the precise timeframe. The slides about the 32nm bulk process is completely irrelevant to the discussion, and bears no way on MPU manufacturing one way or the other.

Edit: added link