You are right, but I have little doubt that Kepler will be impressive. For starters, NV likely revamped the way their teams are managed. If you remember, JHH sighted that one of the main issues on the Fermi project was that 2 teams were working separately on Fermi and there was little communication between them which resulted in a design flaw that needed 6 months to fix. Secondly, NV has a better DX11 base to start with. Even if they increased SPs and TMUs inside GTX580 by 50%, and increased clocks by 10-15% and made 0 changes to Tessellation, that already would be a very fast GPU. But from comments of
NV's GPU engineers, they are hinting at introducing virtual memory, pre-emption, etc.
Ok and this is where we take the AnandTech Forum Opinion and put it against facts. Winning is relative since it automatically implies 2 sides: (1) business side and (2) consumer side.
From the business side, HD5000 and HD6000 series didn't win anything outside of fanboi noise on forums.
- Without going into detail on a per card basis, just look at the discrete GPU market share where NV
stands at 59%. There probably isn't even a point of comparing NV's vs. AMD's profitability.
AMD has not been able to make a dent in desktop discrete GPU market share since Q2 2010 despite the 6 months Fermi slip. Although this time because Bulldozer is such a f8ck8n flop, if there is not a clear winner between NV and AMD, it may be best for us to give our $$ to AMD if we want them to survive.
HD7000 series is going to need to be spectacular imho to have any chance against Kepler. Let's hope it is since GCN is a brand new architecture. Imho "Winning" doesn't mean squat unless it translates into more market shares, which then translates into more profits - and so far NV has been killing AMD on both of those fronts.
Sure, it's very easy to please enthusiasts when you sell a $350 GPU for $270, or a $450 GPU for $300 because it won't sell for $450. I am not complaining about a $199 HD4850 or a $299 HD4870 or a $269 HD5850 or a $230 HD6950 2GB, etc. as a consumer. But from a corporate perspective, AMD's GPU division has been losing the war since 2008 pretty badly. Care to guess how much $$ NV makes off a $450-500 GTX580?
What if BMW was selling its cars for 20-30% less than Audi or Mercedes. Apparently, NV is in the business of making $$ and keeping market share, while AMD struggles to gain market share by undercutting each and new generation just to appeal to the consumer. I remember when X850XT cost $499. That's the winning ATI I remember.