News AMD 4Q25 Earnings

[Joe NYC]

This is absolute nonsense

It's just a projection based on revenue and profit margins from mostly OpenAI. If OpenAI has the money to pay for what they ordered, the numbers can't be too far out of the ballpark. Just by using revenue estimates and margin estimates.

The part of the graph that I found to be a head scratcher is that the rest of AMD business (outside of datacenter GPU, CPU) would be shrinking or losing profitability. From $2.17 in 2025 to $1.56 in 2027.

That's almost like @adroc_thurston talk of AMD neglecting everything outside of datacenter.

I don't think it is going to happen. I think AMD is going to course correct after receiving all the negative feedback about their 2026 client product offerings and criticism may subside after Zen 6 finally emerges.

 

[Kepler_L2]

It's just a projection based on revenue and profit margins from mostly OpenAI. If OpenAI has the money to pay for what they ordered, the numbers can't be too far out of the ballpark. Just by using revenue estimates and margin estimates.

The part of the graph that I found to be a head scratcher is that the rest of AMD business (outside of datacenter GPU, CPU) would be shrinking or losing profitability. From $2.17 in 2025 to $1.56 in 2027.

That's almost like @adroc_thurston talk of AMD neglecting everything outside of datacenter.

I don't think it is going to happen. I think AMD is going to course correct after receiving all the negative feedback about their 2026 client product offerings and criticism may subside after Zen 6 finally emerges.

$120 million gaming revenue is impossible, even on quarters where they basically stopped shipping consoles because Sony/MS had excess inventory they still did around $500 million.

 

[Joe NYC]

$120 million gaming revenue is impossible, even on quarters where they basically stopped shipping consoles because Sony/MS had excess inventory they still did around $500 million.

Those are not revenue figures, those are trailing 4 quarters of EPS combined. For example, $4.17 for Q4 2025 matches calendar year 2025.

The components are analyst's projection of how profitable the segments are, how much they contribute to the EPS. Some of it is given by AMD in its reporting.

So the analyst is expecting profitability of all non-datacenter segments to be down significantly from now to 2027.

 

[adroc_thurston]

That's almost like @adroc_thurston talk of AMD neglecting everything outside of datacenter.

Yes they're laser-focused on winning DC and have been such since like 2017 or earlier.

I think AMD is going to course correct after receiving all the negative feedback about their 2026 client product offerings and criticism may subside after Zen 6 finally emerges.

They course corrected 3 years ago when yearly mobile got KIA'd.
In any case, your idea of "vomit money at the market suffering constant margin pressure and pray TAM rebounds to 290m to carry volumes" is what got Intel down to 35% GM.

 

[dante455]

tbh a 5% QoQ drop for Q1 is whatever, that’s basically seasonal noise half the time. If the y/y is still that strong, I’m not panicking.

 

[Joe NYC]

Yes they're laser-focused on winning DC and have been such since like 2017 or earlier.

They course corrected 3 years ago when yearly mobile got KIA'd.
In any case, your idea of "vomit money at the market suffering constant margin pressure and pray TAM rebounds to 290m to carry volumes" is what got Intel down to 35% GM.

AMD can afford to do it now, and as of now, AMD has only ~28% of that TAM.

Growing by either growing TAM or growing market in theory achieves the same result. But growing market share also means the competitors have fewer resources to compete. It does not work against NVidia, but it works against Intel.

 

[adroc_thurston]

AMD can afford to do it now, and as of now, AMD has only ~28% of that TAM.

Who cares about TAM if it's being squeezed all outta margin.

Growing by either growing TAM or growing market in theory achieves the same result. But growing market share also means the competitors have fewer resources to compete.

Growing market share in PC means margin kaput.

 

[Joe NYC]

Who cares about TAM if it's being squeezed all outta margin.
Growing market share in PC means margin kaput.

You sound like a past Intel BoD member, which decided that Intel sells divisions (sometimes promising) that had lower margins.

On the other side of the globe at similar time frame, TSMC invested approximately $100 million in equipment and dedicated a team of over 400 engineers for R&D to develop CoWoS for Xilinx, even though Xilinx order was only 50 wafers per month. What was the margin on this one for TSMC, at the time?

It is quite possible that AMD underinvestment in client / notebook will come back to bite AMD in their ass(ets).

 

[adroc_thurston]

You sound like a past Intel BoD member, which decided that Intel sells divisions (sometimes promising) that had lower margins.

The only promising thing that Intel killed was Tofino.

It is quite possible that AMD underinvestment in client / notebook will come back to bit AMD in the their ass(ets).

Again, if you like 35% GMs, you can load on $INTC.

 

[Joe NYC]

Mercury numbers show AMD had a great Q4. Even gained share in mobile.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2021695106198163569