News AMD 3Q24 Earnings Results

[linkgoron]

AMD's DC revenue has more than double compared to last year.

Unless Intel's DC revenue increases a lot, AMD will for the first time surpass Intel's DC revenue, another blow for Intel

That includes GPUs though.

It's not surprising but every time AMD has an earnings report, even if it was at the expectation, their stock drops after hours.

People keep expecting AMD to magically become Nvidia and they keep proving that they're not. Although their gains relatively to S&P 500 haven't been great YTD even before this ~-7% overreaction (still ~70% from a year ago, although they've been -20% since march).

 

[Joe NYC]

That includes GPUs though.

datacenter GPU ~1.5 billion
datacenter CPU ~2.0 billion

 

[Tigerick]

That includes GPUs though.


People keep expecting AMD to magically become Nvidia and they keep proving that they're not. Although their gains relatively to S&P 500 haven't been great YTD even before this ~-7% overreaction (still ~70% from a year ago, although they've been -20% since march).

I think Intel includes GPU revenue in the DC segment as well...

 

[yuri69]

Client segment revenue was $1.9 billion, up 29% year-over-year and 26% sequentially primarily driven by strong demand for “Zen 5” AMD Ryzen™ processors.

Either Lenovo bought all Strixes or AMD is lying by referencing Zen 5. Desktop Zen 5 has been nonexistent. Strix is not really available. So it is Zen <5 or some OEMs are hoarding.

The gaming segment is sad since both consoles suck and both Navi 3 and 4 seems to disappoint.

 

[rainy]

Either Lenovo bought all Strixes or AMD is lying by referencing Zen 5. Desktop Zen 5 has been nonexistent. Strix is not really available. So it is Zen <5 or some OEMs are hoarding.

The gaming segment is sad since both consoles suck and both Navi 3 and 4 seems to disappoint.

I really "love" your constant negativism toward AMD and I do not recall anything similar in relation to Intel, quite obviously you are biased.

 

[moinmoin]

That includes GPUs though.

Which is actually fine since the current AI craze is eating into traditional server budgets. By including GPUs the focus on total available server budgets remains, just the balance between CPUs and GPUs is likely going to change depending on what's deemed more important at a given time.

 

[Abwx]

Strix is not really available.

Lol...

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[yuri69]

Lol...

The context...

 

[linkgoron]

Which is actually fine since the current AI craze is eating into traditional server budgets. By including GPUs the focus on total available server budgets remains, just the balance between CPUs and GPUs is likely going to change depending on what's deemed more important at a given time.

Yes of course it is, just that the comparison was vs Intel

I think Intel includes GPU revenue in the DC segment as well...

Let's be serious now...

 

[jpiniero]

Neither console vendor has any games this year and AMD has no interesting dGFX offerings until N48 launch.

You would think there would be at least some bump from preparing for the Christmas shopping season though, not to mention the Pro dies should cost decently more.

 

[GTracing]

Either Lenovo bought all Strixes or AMD is lying by referencing Zen 5. Desktop Zen 5 has been nonexistent. Strix is not really available. So it is Zen <5 or some OEMs are hoarding.

The context...

1). If what you meant was Zen5 is still being outsold by older chips, then say that. Strix point has been "readily available" for a while.

2). AMD makes money when they sell chips to OEMs. And even if AMD is shipping older chips more than strix point, the quote says that the growth was driven by Zen5, which is totally believable.

 

[jpiniero]

2). AMD makes money when they sell chips to OEMs. And even if AMD is shipping older chips more than strix point, the quote says that the growth was driven by Zen5, which is totally believable.

Strix is too expensive to really sell much. That's where Phoenix/Hawk comes in.

IOW OEMs are desperate to show "Investors" they are selling more AI PCs. Can't do that with Raptor Lake.

 

[reaperrr3]

Strix is too expensive to really sell much. That's where Phoenix/Hawk comes in.

Depends on what you consider "too expensive" or "much".

Intel has no better Copilot+-compatible product and Qualcomm's Gen1 is a dud with consumers.
We also don't know what rebates AMD might be willing to give for large OEM orders.

IOW OEMs are desperate to show "Investors" they are selling more AI PCs. Can't do that with Raptor Lake.

Can't do that with any AMD product other than Strix either, if we go by Copilot+ requirements.

 

[Hitman928]

datacenter GPU ~1.5 billion
datacenter CPU ~2.0 billion

It's closer to a 50/50 split.

 

[Joe NYC]

It's closer to a 50/50 split.

I think that's what they predicted for Q4.

 

[Joe NYC]

Strix is too expensive to really sell much. That's where Phoenix/Hawk comes in.

IOW OEMs are desperate to show "Investors" they are selling more AI PCs. Can't do that with Raptor Lake.

Last time I looked, most of the Strix Point laptops had a NVidia dGPU. Also more RAM, bigger drive. All of which makes them expensive.

I did not notice too many basic models with iGPU only. Hard to know which models sell in which quantities.

 

[Hitman928]

I think that's what they predicted for Q4.

No, Lisa gave a little more insight in the call, it was nearly 50/50 in Q3.

 

[gdansk]

No, Lisa gave a little more insight in the call, it was nearly 50/50 in Q3.

Hmm, that implies Epyc is not making any gains

 

[Joe NYC]

No, Lisa gave a little more insight in the call, it was nearly 50/50 in Q3.

Hmm, interesting, maybe I misunderstood.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Hmm, that implies Epyc is not making any gains

It >implies CPU capex is flat or shrinking.

 

[Hitman928]

Hmm, interesting, maybe I misunderstood.

In her reply to Stacy Rasgon in the call, Lisa said that DC GPU revenue was greater than $1.5B and that there are some other non-CPU/GPU products in data center which contribute to the DC revenue. Rough estimate is probably something like $1.6B GPU and $1.7B - $1.8B CPU.

Edit: DC GPU revenue should eclipse DC CPU revenue next quarter, though not by much. I expect in 2025, though, DC GPU will start to become the dominate revenue source for AMD.

 

[Hitman928]

Hmm, that implies Epyc is not making any gains

Probably slight gains in terms of revenue, better gains in terms of share for the quarter.

 

[Hitman928]

It >implies CPU capex is flat or shrinking.

Yep, this was addressed in the earnings call too and Lisa seemed to acknowledge it but still showed confidence that AMD could continue to grow outside of DC GPUs. My impression was that AMD is looking to the following for growth in 2025, in order of % growth:

1. AI spend continuing like crazy and AMD's Data center GPU being able to capture a good piece of it (still lagging way behind NV, but strong growth for AMD).
2. Data center enterprise modernization cycle with Epyc gaining market share in this area.
3. Continued cloud market share gains for Epyc.
4. Windows 10 EOL forcing a client upgrade cycle.
5. FPGAs slowly recovering.
6. RDNA4 release.

3 and 4 might be flipped. Not much was said about 6 so maybe put it at 5, but with it being a limited SKU release, I'm putting it at 6.

 

[Joe NYC]

Probably slight gains in terms of revenue, better gains in terms of share for the quarter.

That would imply Intel not doing very well in datacenter this quarter.

 

[Hitman928]

That would imply Intel not doing very well in datacenter this quarter.

That’s the expectation, yes, they release results Thursday though. Intel is expecting some Gaudi 3 sales which may cover some of the CPU losses, or at least obfuscate things a bit.