Question AMD 2Q25 Earnings

[adroc_thurston]

I mean crazy, parabolic stock breakout NV style.

Oh no, AMD is not a bubble driver.

NV OTOH, has 2.5x'ed its valuation in the same time period and is still touching all time highs right now

I know right? Cisco of the era.

 

[Joe NYC]

Its just not going to happen unless AMD can not just merely compete well with NV, but chew them up, swallow them, and sh!t them out from a technical standpoint. I just dont see that happening.

It did not happened quite like that against Intel either. There was Naples, Rome, Milan, when AMD reached unquestioned superiority in datacenter, but the market share just started to move and was still in the 20% range.

In datacenter GPU, Mi400 will be the Rome equivalent.

The big difference between datacenter CPU, which was to most extent a zero sum game, and GPU, which is continuing to grow fast, is that just holding a meager share still results in growing revenue.

Slow and steady gains are still better than 3rd place...

There may not even be a 3rd place in datacenter GPU. LBT did not mention once Intel's Jaguar Shores.

Old Intel could just continue to fund it. But the new Intel has a considerable constraints on resources. With extremely dim prospects for success, LBT may just as well pull the plug on it.

 

[lucasworais]

What the heck happened to their DC margin!?

 

[adroc_thurston]

What the heck happened to their DC margin!?

800m of inventory write-offs.

 

[Joe NYC]

What the heck happened to their DC margin!?

View attachment 128383

First, these charts are useless for AMD because they are based on GAAP accounting, which, due to Xilinx acquisition, for AMD it is so skewed it is useless. Non-GAAP is what everyone is looking at.

Second, there was a $800m charge due to ban of selling Mi308 to China. Which was already reversed, but the accounting charge is still applied to Q2 results.

 

[Saylick]

What the heck happened to their DC margin!?

View attachment 128383

Because of this man and his silly policies about a particular country.

 

[Joe NYC]

Because of this man and his silly policies about a particular country.
View attachment 128385

The silliness in relation to China is universal in Washington DC. There were artificial limit's placed on products, to which then AMD and NVidia would redesign their products and then still be banned.

Examples: A800, H800.

 

[Win2012R2]

They made the order before the delay was announced?

They would not made order before Rockstar is sure of ship date, Sony 99.999% got their people on site to help optimise the game.

Now having said that plans for PS5 Pro could not have been adjusted to delay longer, but they will sell it like hotcakes when the game it out.

 

[Saylick]

LOL, I have to imagine Trump calling for LBT to resign has to do with it, but AMD’s stock price just basically fully recovered from the post-earnings dip. It’s up 7% as of now. None of this makes sense at all.

 

[adroc_thurston]

LOL, I have to imagine Trump calling for LBT to resign has to do with it, but AMD’s stock price just basically fully recovered from the post-earnings dip. It’s up 7% as of now. None of this makes sense at all.

US is an honorary Eastern Euro country now.
It's not supposed to make sense. Just enjoy the ride (till it crashes and burns).

 

[Joe NYC]

LOL, I have to imagine Trump calling for LBT to resign has to do with it, but AMD’s stock price just basically fully recovered from the post-earnings dip. It’s up 7% as of now. None of this makes sense at all.

It may also be related to some clarity emerging on the issue of semiconductor tariffs. Which is, no semiconductor tariff if the company is either producing or building production capacity in the US.

With TSMC doing that, and AMD buying some of the TSMC Arizona output, tariff risk to AMD has been reduced.

 

[The Hardcard]

The results kind of reinforce that AMD is only going to be a bit player in AI. Still a lot of money but not hype train money. And that's what WS cares about.



The China mention seems more like AMD trying to sell that it's not that bad.

I don’t think that is reinforced at all. AMD software stack is still not complete and seamless. Also, they don’t yet have large scale distributed systems yet, however that is incoming with the MI400 series hardware.

They still have time since AI agents don’t yet have the mainstream engagement capabilities that is going to drive the next explosive scramble for hardware. They are extremely unlikely to catch Nvidia in revenue, but it’ll be far less lopsided by the end of 2027. And like Nvidia, Instinct will be the overwhelming majority of their revenue and nearly all the profit.

 

[The Hardcard]

Why is Mi400 the thing that puts it all together for AMD?

MI400 will be the first systems that can go large scale. AMD currently doesn’t have an answer for NVLink which can scale to more than 100 GPUs. AMDs high speed connection is still limited to 8 GPUs. The data paths above 8 are significantly slower. MI400 will have competitive scaling.