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AMD 2013 Q1 Earnings on Thursday - lets see how the numbers are going to be...

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And btw. The numbers looked good and as forecast by RR - even to the good side.

Probably richland and kabini are doing well, because the rest of the portfolio, outside bobcat, is extremely uncompetitive.

There looks to be some posibility to trim especially non R&D cost, as well as R&D cost to get into profitability if they have to scale further down.
 
The whole lineup is doing bad. Revenue is down $500 millions from last year. At end of 1H 2013 it could be around $750 millions.
 
krumme said:
And btw. The numbers looked good and as forecast by RR - even to the good side.

Probably richland and kabini are doing well, because the rest of the portfolio, outside bobcat, is extremely uncompetitive.

There looks to be some posibility to trim especially non R&D cost, as well as R&D cost to get into profitability if they have to scale further down.
Click to expand...

A net loss is "looking good"?? All depends on your point of view I guess. I could see how a small loss or at least smaller than expected loss could be tolerated as an isolated incident, but either a loss or very minimal profit seems to be the consistent pattern for AMD. Honestly, I dont see how the company keeps surviving.
 
frozentundra123456 said:
A net loss is "looking good"?? All depends on your point of view I guess. I could see how a small loss or at least smaller than expected loss could be tolerated as an isolated incident, but either a loss or very minimal profit seems to be the consistent pattern for AMD. Honestly, I dont see how the company keeps surviving.
Click to expand...

They kept surviving this long by selling off their parts. Fabs gone, employees laid off, they just sold & leased back their HQ...

Eventually they'll run out of those little "liquidity levers" and the company will have to start generating some damn positive free cash flow, otherwise they will go bankrupt.

The major problem is that Intel has been accelerating its GPU development since 2010, meaning that AMD's sole value proposition is about to go out the window. Intel will have cheaper, faster, and cooler running chips than anything AMD could hope to produce since it will soon be 2 process nodes behind.

AMD is a trainwreck waiting to happen, and anybody who thinks that a friggin PS4 deal is going to save them, kill Nvidia's GPU, etc. is probably long too many shares at too high of a cost basis to face reality.
 
frozentundra123456 said:
A net loss is "looking good"?? All depends on your point of view I guess. I could see how a small loss or at least smaller than expected loss could be tolerated as an isolated incident, but either a loss or very minimal profit seems to be the consistent pattern for AMD. Honestly, I dont see how the company keeps surviving.
Click to expand...

Haha. Yeaa, i know it sound stupid. But when i or investors look at the numbers our perspective is what the result is, in relation to what is expected, and in relation to the managements own predictions.

In fact this looks like the best result for AMD in my opinion i have seen for years, and under the most difficult situations. As you say there were some years with very slim profit - just so slim a profit - but a profit. I really never trusted those results, they just pushed the bad results to later years. Excepts for a few years AMD have effectively been burning money their entire life imho.
 
Intel17 said:
AMD is a trainwreck waiting to happen
Click to expand...
Been hearing this for years. When AMD bought ATI, that was going to be the end of AMD for sure according to some, not to mention AMD was going to stop developing discrete GPUs altogether. 😉

I'm constantly amazed how much people talk about AMD, a company that supposedly doesn't matter and offers no competition for Intel.
 
Intel17 said:
They kept surviving this long by selling off their parts. Fabs gone, employees laid off, they just sold & leased back their HQ...

Eventually they'll run out of those little "liquidity levers" and the company will have to start generating some damn positive free cash flow, otherwise they will go bankrupt.

The major problem is that Intel has been accelerating its GPU development since 2010, meaning that AMD's sole value proposition is about to go out the window. Intel will have cheaper, faster, and cooler running chips than anything AMD could hope to produce since it will soon be 2 process nodes behind.

AMD is a trainwreck waiting to happen, and anybody who thinks that a friggin PS4 deal is going to save them, kill Nvidia's GPU, etc. is probably long too many shares at too high of a cost basis to face reality.
Click to expand...

Nonsense. They have to pay for their assets like everyone else. They continue to survive because people pour money into them.
 
Gikaseixas said:
They just won't go away right? ...and with consoles on board, re-hiring guys that helped Apple these last 3/4 years i think you and some others will have to deal with them for a few more decades hehe.
Click to expand...

I honestly do not wish AMD to go bankrupt. I am currently using an AMD graphics card, and have used computers with AMD cpus when they offered better performance for my needs than Intel.

Perhaps they will turn things around. If so, good for them. I am simply saying that it has been a long time since they consistently, quarter after quarter, turned a significant profit. Basically, what, since the ATI acquisition?

And I do agree with you that somehow they manage to stick around, somewhat surprisingly in light of the financial results.
 
No, they survive because they reduce their opex - RnD and S&G. nVidia is investing the same money into RnD like AMD.
 
Intel17 said:
They kept surviving this long by selling off their parts. Fabs gone, employees laid off, they just sold & leased back their HQ...

Eventually they'll run out of those little "liquidity levers" and the company will have to start generating some damn positive free cash flow, otherwise they will go bankrupt.
Click to expand...

Those "levers" as Mr. Kumar likes to say are nothing more than asset sales, and once you are in need of money, the value of your assets tends to drop, sharply.

As I said, the break even target for Q3 is gone from the financial statements, and so is the 1.3 billion target. It will be interesting to see whether positive FCF will stand for Q4.
 
mrmt said:
Intel 14nm will become a problem for AMD next year already
Click to expand...

Basing your assumptions in wishfull thoughts will render
your theories worthless...

There will be no 14nm in 2014 , so much for the rest of your
wild speculations.

IMG0041009.jpg


http://www.hardware.fr/news/13079/haswell-refresh-haswell-e-2014.html
 
Abwx said:
Basing your assumptions in wishfull thoughts will render
your theories worthless...

There will be no 14nm in 2014 , so much for the rest of your
wild speculations.

IMG0041009.jpg


http://www.hardware.fr/news/13079/haswell-refresh-haswell-e-2014.html
Click to expand...

Well, even if they will keep Haswell for 12 months the earliest they would release Broadwell at 14nm will be in June 2014. And even if they will launch in June they will only bring the Core i5 and Core i7 models first($180.00 and above) which will not affect AMD Kaveri (sub $180.00) at all.
 
Abwx said:
Basing your assumptions in wishfull thoughts will render
your theories worthless...

There will be no 14nm in 2014 , so much for the rest of your
wild speculations.
Click to expand...

I'll bet you $100,000 that I will be able to buy a system with 14nm Intel silicon during 2014. Are you unfamiliar with the "tick-tock" model?

2012 - 22nm "Tick" (Ivy Bridge)
2013 - 22nm "Tock"(Haswell)
2014 - 14nm "Tick" (Broadwell)

Now it may very well be the case that Intel isn't bothering with Broadwell LGA on the desktop and is releasing it solely on notebooks, but that doesn't mean that Intel won't have 14nm chips killing AMD's best efforts in the highest volume segments of the market. Burying your head in the sand won't change reality.
 
AtenRa said:
Well, even if they will keep Haswell for 12 months the earliest they would release Broadwell at 14nm will be in June 2014. And even if they will launch in June they will only bring the Core i5 and Core i7 models first($180.00 and above) which will not affect AMD Kaveri (sub $180.00) at all.
Click to expand...

No, no, you don't get it. There's a reason AMD's "Kaveri" will be <$180...it is precisely because its chip will be so uncompetitive with the top Haswell/Broadwell that they have to price it down.

You don't honestly think AMD likes selling its larger-than-Intel-dies for much cheaper, do you? Of course, I would hope that they are trying to get every last buck that they can!
 
Intel17 said:
No, no, you don't get it. There's a reason AMD's "Kaveri" will be <$180...it is precisely because its chip will be so uncompetitive with the top Haswell/Broadwell that they have to price it down.

You don't honestly think AMD likes selling its larger-than-Intel-dies for much cheaper, do you? Of course, I would hope that they are trying to get every last buck that they can!
Click to expand...

Kaveri will launch before Broadwell, and the reason why it will be at sub 180.00 USD has nothing to do with Broadwell becoming a problem for AMD in 2014.

Again, even if Intel will launch 14nm Broadwell in 2014 it will not affect the Kaveri APUs.
 
Intel17 said:
They kept surviving this long by selling off their parts. Fabs gone, employees laid off, they just sold & leased back their HQ...

Eventually they'll run out of those little "liquidity levers" and the company will have to start generating some damn positive free cash flow, otherwise they will go bankrupt.

The major problem is that Intel has been accelerating its GPU development since 2010, meaning that AMD's sole value proposition is about to go out the window. Intel will have cheaper, faster, and cooler running chips than anything AMD could hope to produce since it will soon be 2 process nodes behind.

AMD is a trainwreck waiting to happen, and anybody who thinks that a friggin PS4 deal is going to save them, kill Nvidia's GPU, etc. is probably long too many shares at too high of a cost basis to face reality.
Click to expand...

AMD is a trainwreck happening. And has since 2006.
 
Another qtr, another loss of marketshare, crappy margins compared to their competitors, and more assets sold. Outlook doesnt look good either as their competitors will be 1-2 nodes ahead of them. Good luck competing with Intel when they can ship smaller, faster, more power efficient chips just by process technology alone. Forget they are trying to compete with ARM and optimizing designs for low power.

AMD is the player in monopoly that built up a decent enough portfolio of land but couldnt build houses or hotels. Now their competitors were able to and each round around the board more of their assets are flipped for cheap cash to survive landing on the wrong land.
 
Idontcare said:
Why then will Kaveri be at sub 180.00 USD?
Click to expand...

Kaveri will replace Trinity/Richland. I dont expect AMD to put them above the 150.00 USD mark because it would canibalize its FX line. Also, even a 3 Module 6 Core Kaveri will have hard time to beat IvyBridge Core i5 Quad Core in CPU performance and AMD would like to generate revenue and gain market share.

Idontcare said:
If Broadwell will not affect Kaveri APUs, then what will?
Click to expand...

Core i5 and Core i7 BroadWell will not affect Kaveri, Core i3 and bellow it will but those will not be released within 2014. Kaveri will stay for the entire year (2014) with out any serious competition except from Ivy Core i3. Broadwell Core i3 will be a serious threat against Kaveri but in 2015 AMD will have an answer to that as well.
 
Cloudfire777 said:
Question is, how long will it take for the AMD train to derail completely.
Click to expand...

Many feel the worst has already happened. I am starting to believe the worst is yet to come. Once their competition in CPU(intel) is 2 process nodes ahead of them and in GPU(Nvidia) is 1. The train may finally come to a rest at the bottom of a canyon. Its carcass picked apart by looters in bankruptcy.
 
Intel17 said:
I'll bet you $100,000 that I will be able to buy a system with 14nm Intel silicon during 2014. Are you unfamiliar with the "tick-tock" model?

2012 - 22nm "Tick" (Ivy Bridge)
2013 - 22nm "Tock"(Haswell)
2014 - 14nm "Tick" (Broadwell)
Click to expand...
July 27, 2006 Tock
November 11, 2007 Tick
November 17, 2008 Tock
January 4, 2010 Tick
January 9, 2011 Tock
April 29, 2012 Tick
June 2nd 2013 Tock
Their Tocks were almost on 12 month cycle, but their Tick schedule has already slipped 9 months. I don't doubt that Broadwell 2014 is possible, I wouldn't bet on it though. Doesn't take much to slip several months, as other foundries have shown time and again. And then there may be other reasons for Intel to delay the Tick.
 
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