News AMD 1Q2024 Earnings

[Abwx]

My question is, is that 57% in current sales vs Intel ? or installed base .

That s current sales since Intel made 3bn while AMD is at 2.3bn, and still, the latter number include some MI300 sales, so the number for servers CPUs is undoubtly lower than 57% marketshare.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Why are AMD op margins so low (1% this Q?).

Use non-GAAP.

 

[Hitman928]

Why are AMD op margins so low (1% this Q?).


Right, this checks with Sony having reduced the forecast last quarter from 25M FY24 to 21M FY24 (And I'm not even sure if they'll hit them). Xbox sales are basically a non-factor at this point.

It’s basically just for tax purposes as they are including amortized costs related to their recent acquisitions. As @adroc_thurston said, the non-GAAP numbers give a better idea of their actual profits and margins.

 

[HurleyBird]

if a technical advantage yield a negative result it means that there s anti competitive practices as only explanations.

There are innumerable other explanations.

 

[Abwx]

There are innumerable other explanations.

There s no other explanation, Intel s bottom line being a testimony, or rather a testimoney and there s a lot of viral marketing that cant be explained otherwise than being covertly paid for the purpose.

Want an exemple of paid review with tricked numbers by Hardware Canucks..?.

One AMD laptop at 41W allegedly beaten by a MTL at 34W, but curiously the battery life at full load of the AMD is 15% longer, wich mean that the numbers are heavily forged, to the point that they state that MTL is better in games, yet we all know from the MSI/Asus handhelds that MTL is subpar in this register.

Another one from another shill state that AMD DT SKUs use more than 50W idling, and there are a lot of views, at the end it doesnt matter if you have better products, purpotedly created viral urban legends have the upper hand.

 

[jpiniero]

Since then they released Phoenix wich is unrivaled till this day and yet they lost 5 pts of marketshare, there s something at play here that has nothing to do with the quality of the products, and this should be adressed by AMD because if a technical advantage yield a negative result it means that there s anti competitive practices as only explanations.

It's a TSMC cost problem. Only way to fix it is to slash the die size.

AI Hype isn't helping.

 

[Abwx]

It's a TSMC cost problem. Only way to fix it is to slash the die size.

AI Hype isn't helping.

2 x the sales would yield the same result, that is, lower cost for waffers given the quantities, and that s a better path for consumers as well as for AMD competitivity.

TSMC is not capacity constrained since they had lower than expected N3 sales,
and N3 production lines can produce N4 in no time, that s just a matter of getting back
to the previous softwares.

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

Q - " I noted you guided it up sequentially (The client side). Any sort of magnitude for that in the Q2 and perhaps more importantly when you talk about the whole AI PC side of things. You believe that's more of a units driver, asp driver or it will be both? "

Lisa Su - "Yeah, I think I'm excited about the AI PC. More oportunities in the near term and the medium term. I think client business is performing well, both on the channel and on the msp. We expect to be up sequentially in the Q2 and as we go into H2 24, your question of units x asp, we expect an increase on both. AI PCs products, when we look at Strix products, they're well suited for the premium segments of the market and I think you're going to see some of the AI PC content strongest in the beginning. And as we into 2025, you'll see it more across the rest of the portfolio"

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

"We expect Turin to give us access to a broader set of workloads, so our tam actually expands with Turin across enterprise and cloud. And from our experience, I think you'll see a faster transition than, for example, when we went from Milan to Genoa"

 

[branch_suggestion]

"We expect Turin to give us access to a broader set of workloads, so our tam actually expands with Turin across enterprise and cloud. And from our experience, I think you'll see a faster transition than, for example, when we went from Milan to Genoa"

Turin-AI bros, we keep winning.

 

[Joe NYC]

it's an overall embedded industry slump.

Both Altera and Xilinx seem to be at the bottom. Intel is forecasting 46% increase in revenue rate exiting 2024 (342m -> 500m).

Anything similar to that, and embedded (Xilinx) would be back to printing money.

 

[Joe NYC]

Stock is down about 5% after hours though. Kind of surprising since to my untrained eye the earnings didnt seem that bad. Maybe the weakness in AI relative to nVidia is hurting them.

Relatively weak uplift for annual forecast (3.5 billion -> 4 billion) is probably the primary reason. I think investors expected something closer to 5 billion.

The second reason is lack of transparency on AMD part as far as its roadmap for the AI related Mi300 line of products. There were number of questions, and AMD did not answer any of them, other than saying: Yes, we have a roadmap.

 

[Joe NYC]

There are several concerns here when adding Intel s numbers to these ones.

First is that Intel still hold 57% of the server market despite notably inferior products, it means that Intel manage to lure customers with whatever mean they use, and methink that it s surely not by branding technical advantages.

How did you get 57%? You need to subtract Instict GPU sales to arrive at CPU sales, which is around $600m for the quarter.

I get Intel 3.0 billion + AMD 1.7 billion = 4.7 billion in server CPU revenue.

Market share ratio: 64% Intel vs. 36% AMD

Second, and that s the worse, is that AMD was holding 20% of the client market in Q1
2023 and for Q1 2024 it s only 15%, yet their product portfolio as never been as strong since in early 2023 all they had in the mobile market, that account for 60% of PC sales, was RMB.

Since then they released Phoenix wich is unrivaled till this day and yet they lost 5 pts of marketshare, there s something at play here that has nothing to do with the quality of the products, and this should be adressed by AMD because if a technical advantage yield a negative result it means that there s anti competitive practices as only explanations.

One thing to keep in mind is that RMB did not amount to much in market share. Most of it came from Cezanne etc.

Phoenix mobile really only started shipping in mid 2023 (started the ramp), Hawk Point January.

And what is new, where AMD has never competed before is corporate desktop. Phoenix dice (big and small) are a good fit for this market, and they were only released at the end of January.

So, AMD is still in early stages of Zen 4 ramp. Strix Point (Zen 5) is going into category above Phoenix / Hawk, so it will be addition, not replacement (later this year).

 

[Joe NYC]

Xbox was already a small % of gaming revenue, the drop has to be mostly PS5 sales slump.

AMD guided further down for H2 2024 for gaming segment. I wonder if that means no PS5 Pro in Q4, or maybe very modest expectations for PS5 Pro.

 

[Joe NYC]

Why are AMD op margins so low (1% this Q?).

You need to be looking at Non-GAAP numbers. That number is 21%.

 

[Joe NYC]

Turin-AI bros, we keep winning.

Is that thing still real? Turin with AI chiplet?

Or are they just contemplating Turin with enhanced AVX-512 will be able to run certain AI workloads that were not possible before?

 

[branch_suggestion]

Is that thing still real? Turin with AI chiplet?

Or are they just contemplating Turin with enhanced AVX-512 will be able to run certain AI workloads that were not possible before?

Mostly the former. Swap out some Z5 CCD's for XDNA2 tiles and laugh all the way to the inference bank. Xilinx was always going to pay off big time.

 

[Abwx]

How did you get 57%? You need to subtract Instict GPU sales to arrive at CPU sales, which is around $600m for the quarter.

I get Intel 3.0 billion + AMD 1.7 billion = 4.7 billion in server CPU revenue.

Market share ratio: 64% Intel vs. 36% AMD

I pointed that it was including MI300 and that the number is lower than 57% for CPUs, that being said 36% is really weak given the obvious technical superiority of Genoa, and with Siena they have adressed the low cost servers market, so they now have a better offering across the board.

One thing to keep in mind is that RMB did not amount to much in market share. Most of it came from Cezanne etc.

Phoenix mobile really only started shipping in mid 2023 (started the ramp), Hawk Point January.

And what is new, where AMD has never competed before is corporate desktop. Phoenix dice (big and small) are a good fit for this market, and they were only released at the end of January.

So, AMD is still in early stages of Zen 4 ramp. Strix Point (Zen 5) is going into category above Phoenix / Hawk, so it will be addition, not replacement (later this year).

When we look in percentage the number is not bad but when we look in revenue
that s not much since Intel increased their sales by 1.7bn while AMD only captured 0.6bn out of a 2.3bn total growth of the client CPU market on a Q1/23 vs Q1/24 basis.

Hope that Strix Point and later Halo will truly deliver because they need apparently
almost 2 gen advance to really shake the market.

 

[Markfw]

How did you get 57%? You need to subtract Instict GPU sales to arrive at CPU sales, which is around $600m for the quarter.

I get Intel 3.0 billion + AMD 1.7 billion = 4.7 billion in server CPU revenue.

Market share ratio: 64% Intel vs. 36% AMD

The problem with that is we KNOW that Intel has deeply discounted its processors to try and stay in the game with AMD in the server area. That would actually reduce the 36% to something less. A count of physical processors would be a better indicator, but I doubt we can get that number.

 

[jpiniero]

AMD guided further down for H2 2024 for gaming segment. I wonder if that means no PS5 Pro in Q4, or maybe very modest expectations for PS5 Pro.

I've mentioned this before... but the third year (this is the fourth) is typically the peak of a console generation. This is worse than you would expect though.

 

[adroc_thurston]

This is worse than you would expect though.

Neither console has any games.

 

[gdansk]

Neither console has any games.

And it only took 3.5 years for people to realize!

 

[Hitman928]

Relatively weak uplift for annual forecast (3.5 billion -> 4 billion) is probably the primary reason. I think investors expected something closer to 5 billion.

The second reason is lack of transparency on AMD part as far as its roadmap for the AI related Mi300 line of products. There were number of questions, and AMD did not answer any of them, other than saying: Yes, we have a roadmap.

Lisa Su gave commentary on their roadmap but didn't talk any specifics, but they're not going to comment on unannounced products during an earnings call.

I've mentioned this before... but the third year (this is the fourth) is typically the peak of a console generation. This is worse than you would expect though.

The current gen lifetime console sales were front loaded even more than usual due to the pandemic.

 

[adroc_thurston]

And it only took 3.5 years for people to realize!

Both vendors coasted off crossgen stuff for a while.
Then it ran out.
More acute for MS, see having no Fallout games in the pipeline despite the IP being back with vengeance etc.

Xilinx was always going to pay off big time.

Yeah gotta give Lisa the credit, she earns her paycheck fair and square.

 

[yuri69]

I pointed that it was including MI300 and that the number is lower than 57% for CPUs, that being said 36% is really weak given the obvious technical superiority of Genoa, and with Siena they have adressed the low cost servers market, so they now have a better offering across the board.

When we look in percentage the number is not bad but when we look in revenue
that s not much since Intel increased their sales by 1.7bn while AMD only captured 0.6bn out of a 2.3bn total growth of the client CPU market on a Q1/23 vs Q1/24 basis.

Hope that Strix Point and later Halo will truly deliver because they need apparently
almost 2 gen advance to really shake the market.

Technical superiority vs Emerald Rapids? They are more or less the same, unless you aim for those super premiums - 96-128c. Also there are non-technical aspects like - Intel price war or AMD's OEM relations have always been bad.

Strix won't shake anything if they can't push it to the OEMs. Besides, Strix are aimed at premium and top-premium $$$ segments. These are not going to shake the market.