This is a paper I wrote on the subject. You guys might be interested. I can't paste images or graphs or MS Word citations. Comments and corrections are appreciated:
Global Warming
Does it result from human activity?
The earth consists of many systems that all involve each other in one way or another. Changes in one system can affect many others, sometimes in ways scientists may not be aware about. Today, following ages of industrial and scientific advancement, mankind?s influence on the environment is greater than ever. With this in mind, scientists began questioning how much influence we exerted on the environment so far and in what ways has our historical lack of concern for this influence affected the environment. In the last 25 years the issue of mankind?s influence on global climate change has surfaced due to its potentially disastrous consequences. The concern came about when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment program (UNEP), reported that the average surface temperature will increase during the 20th century by about 0.6° ± 0.2°C. Regional temperatures do fluctuate over time, but the average surface temperature on earth has always been relatively stable. When taken into consideration that the earths average temperature was only 5C cooler during the drastic conditions of the ice age than it is today, a 0.6°C fluctuation in just the 20th century alone raises concern of how much the average surface temperature will increase over the next 50 years and the affects that this increase will have. With high economical and environmental issues at stake, the cause of this increase has also come into question.
The earth?s atmosphere has an insulating ability. Gases in the atmosphere including water vapor, methane, ozone, carbon dioxide, as well as aerosols, produce a greenhouse effect that keeps the earth?s average temperature at a habitable 15°C.When the industrial revolution gained momentum the early 1800s factories began massively releasing one of these greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, which is responsible for 60% of the atmospheres greenhouse properties. The amount of carbon dioxide being released continues to grow at a 4.3% annual increase. From 1870 to 1990 the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere has climbed from 290ppm to 350ppm and is estimated to be at 450ppm by the year 2050. Prior to the industrial revolution the carbon dioxide concentration has been at a constant of 280ppm for at least 700 years. According to further data from air bubbles trapped in Antarctic ice sheets, the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has varied from 200ppm to 300ppm over the last 160,000 years, and was at its highest 125,000 years ago during the warmer interglacial periods of the ice age. This sudden fluctuation in the earth?s average temperature over the last 20 years was initially believed to be the result of the increase in carbon dioxide output due to the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. However, not all scientists agree on the causes of this global warming.
It is clear that more carbon dioxide is being released into the atmosphere as a result of human activity. However, the carbon cycle is very complex and scientists do not have a full understanding of the flow of carbon dioxide throughout the natural cycles. For example, if all the carbon dioxide produced by humans remained in the atmosphere the concentration today would be much higher. This suggests the existence of natural carbon dioxide reservoirs on earth that scientist are not certain about. It is still unknown how the carbon dioxide concentration has historically remained stable in the atmosphere even through the output, from random natural activities such as volcanic eruptions, has not. The controversy on the cause of global warming, or if it even exists, is founded on similar inconsistencies and conflicting evidence within historic climate change. When the atmospheric temperatures predicted by the IPCC using computer models were compared with actually observed temperatures during the past 19 years (fig. 6 and 7), when carbon dioxide emissions increased, scientists began questioning the accuracy of these computer models.
Two separate sources confirmed that temperatures actually decreased, contrary to what the IPCC computer models predicted (fig 11), and regardless of the increase in carbon dioxide emission. What the IPPC computer models also fail to explain is why the surface temperature increased the most between 1910 to 1945, and 1976 to 2000 even though carbon dioxide emissions have steadily gone up.
Also in question is whether or not the climate can be accurately simulated on a computer when scientists have limited knowledge of earth?s hidden reservoirs and its cycles - some of which cannot be accurately observed because they take tens of thousands of years to complete. The IPPC computer climate model has been criticized for not taking into account albedo from clouds and water vapor feedback that contributes significantly to the greenhouse effect. The available data today does not show that climate change is occurring due to deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels, even though those acts increase carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. But scientists do not only hold the earth?s cycles solely responsible for its climate. Solar activity can also contribute greatly to climate change.
The sun?s energy output is generally constant and only changes 0.1% during its 11-year solar cycle. At a point in this solar cycle the amount of sunspots on the photosphere increase in what is known as the solar max. These sunspots are darker regions that produce strong electromagnetic fields and increase the suns energy output ? both of which can affect whether on earth. Data has shown a correlation between the increase in the amount of sunspots every solar cycle and rising temperatures on earth (R.Willson).
This data from the NASA study fits in with other historical data that shows a correlation between solar activity and earth?s temperature. The data (S. Baliunas) based on examination of ancient tree rings and deposits in ice suggest that the solar output played a significant role in the northern hemispheres land temperature. Evidence of a spotless photosphere between 1645 and 1715, a time of a mild ice age, further suggests the influence of sunspots. Also, an unusually warmer period knows as the ?medieval maximum? is also believed to be correlated with an increase in the sun?s output.
The reason governments and environmentalist groups are greatly concerned with global warming is because of the impact it can have on the entire planet. Like with a lot of the science behind global warming, the extremity and affect of a warmer climate, is uncertain. Increased temperature can melt polar ice caps and raise sea level, flooding coast lines, decreasing habitable land and displacing populations. This increase in the oceans surface area can mean an increase in the photosynthetic algae that is responsible for producing most of earth?s oxygen ? which can compensate for the loss due to deforestation. On the other hand increased carbon dioxide levels can make the ocean waters more acidic and decrease this algae population. The increase in carbon dioxide levels can also result is better growing conditions for plants and increased food production which would be important to third world nations. But increased vegetation grown can also mean an increase in insect populations which can hurt these third world countries by spreading diseases such as malaria, causing epidemics. Worse, the warmer climate increases the population of certain species which can decrease populations of others and result in an overall decrease in biodiversity. Entire species can become extinct.
The Kyoto protocol serves as a potential solution to the global warming problem, assuming it is man made or even exists. It serves as a legal agreement between international governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The treaty has been ratified by 104 countries so far, representing 43.9% of emissions. One of the consequences of the treaty is that emission limits can be costly. The ban of CFC use in refrigerators has made them more expensive and less efficient. Although the U.S. has voluntarily passed stringent laws protecting the environment it has not ratified the Kyoto protocol whose emission guidelines would double the cost of manufacturing steel. Also, the U.S. feels it is unfair that China, the world?s second largest greenhouse emitter, does not have to comply.
A sudden increase in the earth?s average surface temperature can have drastic long term economic and environmental affects. In the last 25 years scientists have become more concerned about how much human activity affects the planet, especially our greenhouse emissions. However, inconsistencies and contradictions in modern day evidence suggest that we know less about the environment than we think. The scientific community cannot be sure what is causing an increase in the average surface temperature; some even believe the earth is entering a period of global cooling. It is difficult to factor in albedo, reservoir time, solar, geothermal, and volcanic activity as well as many other factors, and come up with an accurate model of the environment. Environmental change that has spanned thousands of years will be difficult to understand because of the many cycles at work at many different times.
Citations:
Global Climate Change
http://www.exploratorium.edu/climate/primer/index.html
Global Warming Facts
http://www.fact-index.com/g/gl/global_warming.html
SALLIE L. BALIUNAS et al Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm
JIM WILSON GLOBAL WARMING WILDCARD
http://popularmechanics.com/sc...g_wildcard/index.phtml
Robert Roy Britt Sun's Output Increasing in Possible Trend Fueling Global Warming
http://www.space.com/scienceas...sun_output_030320.html
Kyoto Protocol
http://www.fact-index.com/k/ky/kyoto_protocol_1.html
Global Warming
Does it result from human activity?
The earth consists of many systems that all involve each other in one way or another. Changes in one system can affect many others, sometimes in ways scientists may not be aware about. Today, following ages of industrial and scientific advancement, mankind?s influence on the environment is greater than ever. With this in mind, scientists began questioning how much influence we exerted on the environment so far and in what ways has our historical lack of concern for this influence affected the environment. In the last 25 years the issue of mankind?s influence on global climate change has surfaced due to its potentially disastrous consequences. The concern came about when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment program (UNEP), reported that the average surface temperature will increase during the 20th century by about 0.6° ± 0.2°C. Regional temperatures do fluctuate over time, but the average surface temperature on earth has always been relatively stable. When taken into consideration that the earths average temperature was only 5C cooler during the drastic conditions of the ice age than it is today, a 0.6°C fluctuation in just the 20th century alone raises concern of how much the average surface temperature will increase over the next 50 years and the affects that this increase will have. With high economical and environmental issues at stake, the cause of this increase has also come into question.
The earth?s atmosphere has an insulating ability. Gases in the atmosphere including water vapor, methane, ozone, carbon dioxide, as well as aerosols, produce a greenhouse effect that keeps the earth?s average temperature at a habitable 15°C.When the industrial revolution gained momentum the early 1800s factories began massively releasing one of these greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, which is responsible for 60% of the atmospheres greenhouse properties. The amount of carbon dioxide being released continues to grow at a 4.3% annual increase. From 1870 to 1990 the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere has climbed from 290ppm to 350ppm and is estimated to be at 450ppm by the year 2050. Prior to the industrial revolution the carbon dioxide concentration has been at a constant of 280ppm for at least 700 years. According to further data from air bubbles trapped in Antarctic ice sheets, the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has varied from 200ppm to 300ppm over the last 160,000 years, and was at its highest 125,000 years ago during the warmer interglacial periods of the ice age. This sudden fluctuation in the earth?s average temperature over the last 20 years was initially believed to be the result of the increase in carbon dioxide output due to the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. However, not all scientists agree on the causes of this global warming.
It is clear that more carbon dioxide is being released into the atmosphere as a result of human activity. However, the carbon cycle is very complex and scientists do not have a full understanding of the flow of carbon dioxide throughout the natural cycles. For example, if all the carbon dioxide produced by humans remained in the atmosphere the concentration today would be much higher. This suggests the existence of natural carbon dioxide reservoirs on earth that scientist are not certain about. It is still unknown how the carbon dioxide concentration has historically remained stable in the atmosphere even through the output, from random natural activities such as volcanic eruptions, has not. The controversy on the cause of global warming, or if it even exists, is founded on similar inconsistencies and conflicting evidence within historic climate change. When the atmospheric temperatures predicted by the IPCC using computer models were compared with actually observed temperatures during the past 19 years (fig. 6 and 7), when carbon dioxide emissions increased, scientists began questioning the accuracy of these computer models.
Two separate sources confirmed that temperatures actually decreased, contrary to what the IPCC computer models predicted (fig 11), and regardless of the increase in carbon dioxide emission. What the IPPC computer models also fail to explain is why the surface temperature increased the most between 1910 to 1945, and 1976 to 2000 even though carbon dioxide emissions have steadily gone up.
Also in question is whether or not the climate can be accurately simulated on a computer when scientists have limited knowledge of earth?s hidden reservoirs and its cycles - some of which cannot be accurately observed because they take tens of thousands of years to complete. The IPPC computer climate model has been criticized for not taking into account albedo from clouds and water vapor feedback that contributes significantly to the greenhouse effect. The available data today does not show that climate change is occurring due to deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels, even though those acts increase carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. But scientists do not only hold the earth?s cycles solely responsible for its climate. Solar activity can also contribute greatly to climate change.
The sun?s energy output is generally constant and only changes 0.1% during its 11-year solar cycle. At a point in this solar cycle the amount of sunspots on the photosphere increase in what is known as the solar max. These sunspots are darker regions that produce strong electromagnetic fields and increase the suns energy output ? both of which can affect whether on earth. Data has shown a correlation between the increase in the amount of sunspots every solar cycle and rising temperatures on earth (R.Willson).
This data from the NASA study fits in with other historical data that shows a correlation between solar activity and earth?s temperature. The data (S. Baliunas) based on examination of ancient tree rings and deposits in ice suggest that the solar output played a significant role in the northern hemispheres land temperature. Evidence of a spotless photosphere between 1645 and 1715, a time of a mild ice age, further suggests the influence of sunspots. Also, an unusually warmer period knows as the ?medieval maximum? is also believed to be correlated with an increase in the sun?s output.
The reason governments and environmentalist groups are greatly concerned with global warming is because of the impact it can have on the entire planet. Like with a lot of the science behind global warming, the extremity and affect of a warmer climate, is uncertain. Increased temperature can melt polar ice caps and raise sea level, flooding coast lines, decreasing habitable land and displacing populations. This increase in the oceans surface area can mean an increase in the photosynthetic algae that is responsible for producing most of earth?s oxygen ? which can compensate for the loss due to deforestation. On the other hand increased carbon dioxide levels can make the ocean waters more acidic and decrease this algae population. The increase in carbon dioxide levels can also result is better growing conditions for plants and increased food production which would be important to third world nations. But increased vegetation grown can also mean an increase in insect populations which can hurt these third world countries by spreading diseases such as malaria, causing epidemics. Worse, the warmer climate increases the population of certain species which can decrease populations of others and result in an overall decrease in biodiversity. Entire species can become extinct.
The Kyoto protocol serves as a potential solution to the global warming problem, assuming it is man made or even exists. It serves as a legal agreement between international governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The treaty has been ratified by 104 countries so far, representing 43.9% of emissions. One of the consequences of the treaty is that emission limits can be costly. The ban of CFC use in refrigerators has made them more expensive and less efficient. Although the U.S. has voluntarily passed stringent laws protecting the environment it has not ratified the Kyoto protocol whose emission guidelines would double the cost of manufacturing steel. Also, the U.S. feels it is unfair that China, the world?s second largest greenhouse emitter, does not have to comply.
A sudden increase in the earth?s average surface temperature can have drastic long term economic and environmental affects. In the last 25 years scientists have become more concerned about how much human activity affects the planet, especially our greenhouse emissions. However, inconsistencies and contradictions in modern day evidence suggest that we know less about the environment than we think. The scientific community cannot be sure what is causing an increase in the average surface temperature; some even believe the earth is entering a period of global cooling. It is difficult to factor in albedo, reservoir time, solar, geothermal, and volcanic activity as well as many other factors, and come up with an accurate model of the environment. Environmental change that has spanned thousands of years will be difficult to understand because of the many cycles at work at many different times.
Citations:
Global Climate Change
http://www.exploratorium.edu/climate/primer/index.html
Global Warming Facts
http://www.fact-index.com/g/gl/global_warming.html
SALLIE L. BALIUNAS et al Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm
JIM WILSON GLOBAL WARMING WILDCARD
http://popularmechanics.com/sc...g_wildcard/index.phtml
Robert Roy Britt Sun's Output Increasing in Possible Trend Fueling Global Warming
http://www.space.com/scienceas...sun_output_030320.html
Kyoto Protocol
http://www.fact-index.com/k/ky/kyoto_protocol_1.html
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