Suppose for a moment we assume:
- that Osama bin Laden exists
- that he founded and runs Al Qaeda
- that Al Qaeda was responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks
- that Osama was in Afghanistan when the U.S. invaded originally
Here are the two thought experiments:
1) How is it that he has not yet been found or killed?
2) How can Al Qaeda still have any power left when it has been forced into hiding?
To address 1), we can assume that Osama is not completely alone. He must have some people supporting him locally to bring him food and information.
There is a $25 million reward for information leading to his capture. Even if we assume that Osama's "helpers" don't know about the bounty, they would surely know that their knowledge is priceless to the U.S. government.
Why hasn't one of them turned him in yet?
On top of that, U.S. troops have searched Afghanistan top to bottom, the CIA monitors all kinds of communications, and EVERYONE knows what Osama looks like; there's no way he could move around using public routes, much less anything like airplanes.
If he's alive, then he's in or near Afghanistan... and he must leave SOME kind of a footprint. The whole planet is looking for the man. Can we really _not_ find him?
To address 2), if he is still alive and is indeed living so covertly that he has almost no footprint, how on earth is he still a threat to anyone, anywhere?
People talk of Al Qaeda as though it is a major military organization. Yet such organizations clearly cannot be run by a man in a cave who must do everything he can to avoid being caught.
And if Al Qaeda operates via small cells here and there, then bin Laden must exert very little control over each one; in this case, we'd be dealing with many small terrorist organizations, not one large one.
Your thoughts on this commentary?
EDITED for clarity
- that Osama bin Laden exists
- that he founded and runs Al Qaeda
- that Al Qaeda was responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks
- that Osama was in Afghanistan when the U.S. invaded originally
Here are the two thought experiments:
1) How is it that he has not yet been found or killed?
2) How can Al Qaeda still have any power left when it has been forced into hiding?
To address 1), we can assume that Osama is not completely alone. He must have some people supporting him locally to bring him food and information.
There is a $25 million reward for information leading to his capture. Even if we assume that Osama's "helpers" don't know about the bounty, they would surely know that their knowledge is priceless to the U.S. government.
Why hasn't one of them turned him in yet?
On top of that, U.S. troops have searched Afghanistan top to bottom, the CIA monitors all kinds of communications, and EVERYONE knows what Osama looks like; there's no way he could move around using public routes, much less anything like airplanes.
If he's alive, then he's in or near Afghanistan... and he must leave SOME kind of a footprint. The whole planet is looking for the man. Can we really _not_ find him?
To address 2), if he is still alive and is indeed living so covertly that he has almost no footprint, how on earth is he still a threat to anyone, anywhere?
People talk of Al Qaeda as though it is a major military organization. Yet such organizations clearly cannot be run by a man in a cave who must do everything he can to avoid being caught.
And if Al Qaeda operates via small cells here and there, then bin Laden must exert very little control over each one; in this case, we'd be dealing with many small terrorist organizations, not one large one.
Your thoughts on this commentary?
EDITED for clarity
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