adios netbooks?

[TheWart]

Thought some folks would find it interesting to see the latest data out of Forrester on this topic.

Looks like everyone in this thread who laughed at the idea of tablets replacing netbooks might end up looking pretty silly themselves:

The tablet era has just begun, but Forrester Research is already predicting tablet sales in the U.S. will overtake netbook sales by 2012, and desktop sales by 2015. At the Untethered conference today in New York City, Forrester analyst Sarah Rotman Epps laid out her projections comparing tablet sales to netbooks, laptops, and desktops. She expects 3.5 million tablets (including the iPad and other tablets) to be sold this year, growing to 20.4 million in 2015. Meanwhile, she expects desktop sales to drop from 18.7 million units in 2010 to 15.7 million units in 2015.

As a percentage of overall PC sales, tablets will grow from 6 percent this year to 18 percent in 2012 (when netbooks are estimated to account for 17 percent of sales. The next year, in 2013, tablet sales are projected to outstrip desktop unit sales, 21 percent to 20 percent. By 2015, tablets will make up 23 percent of PC sales in the U.S., while desktops will be 18 percent and netbooks will be 17 percent. Only laptops will sell more in the U.S., with a 42 percent market share.

http://techcrunch.com/2010/06/17/fo..._campaign=Feed%3A+Techcrunch+(TechCrunch)








Original Post:
Doesn't look too good for the little guys...

As her chart (above) shows, sales growth of these low-cost, low-powered computing devices peaked last summer at an astonishing 641% year-over-year growth rate. It fell off a cliff in January and shrank again in April — collateral damage, according to Huberty, from the January introduction and April launch of the iPad.

But in support of her theory, she offers a Morgan Stanley/Alphawise survey conducted in March that found that 44% of U.S. consumers who were planning to buy an iPad said that they were buying it instead of a netbook or notebook computer.

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/05/06/how-the-ipad-gobbles-up-netbook-sales/

 

[SunnyD]

Fads come and go.

Really though, who wants to carry around something roughly the size of a small laptop with roughly the power of a current smartphone that costs in between the two? (/glares at the iPad)

Let's face it, you can get a full fledged LAPTOP for the cost of a moderately equipped netbook that can do more (better performance, screen, application support, etc). You can get a smartphone for the cost of a moderately equipped netbook that can do more (especially including the fact it's a PHONE, and it's far more portable fitting in your pocket).

I have this distinct feeling the 5" slate/tablet format will be the one that rules the roost for the next few years. Fits in your pocket, but has the performance and flexibility of the lower-end laptops.

 

[TheWart]

Fads come and go.

Really though, who wants to carry around something roughly the size of a small laptop with roughly the power of a current smartphone that costs in between the two? (/glares at the iPad)

Let's face it, you can get a full fledged LAPTOP for the cost of a moderately equipped netbook that can do more (better performance, screen, application support, etc). You can get a smartphone for the cost of a moderately equipped netbook that can do more (especially including the fact it's a PHONE, and it's far more portable fitting in your pocket).

I have this distinct feeling the 5" slate/tablet format will be the one that rules the roost for the next few years. Fits in your pocket, but has the performance and flexibility of the lower-end laptops.

I don't think that size is the sweet spot for a tablet/slate device. I think they need to be at least 8-10" to really differentiate themselves to consumers. I mean how much more powerful would a 5" device be over say, the latest smartphone? I doubt it would be enough to justify the bulkier size. And 5" doesn't really fit in your pocket unless you have cargo pants with massive pockets or something.

 

[GaryJohnson]

I don't think that size is the sweet spot for a tablet/slate device. I think they need to be at least 8-10" to really differentiate themselves to consumers. I mean how much more powerful would a 5" device be over say, the latest smartphone? I doubt it would be enough to justify the bulkier size. And 5" doesn't really fit in your pocket unless you have cargo pants with massive pockets or something.

pff cargo pants

http://www.scottevest.com/company/ipad.shtml

 

[jpeyton]

Adios?

The netbook market will be around 40 million units in 2010. Just because the rapid growth phase has stopped doesn't mean they are gone by any means.

 

[TheWart]

Adios?

The netbook market will be around 40 million units in 2010. Just because the rapid growth phase has stopped doesn't mean they are gone by any means.

But it looks like it will hit 0% growth by this summer, and it is not hard to see that growth rate turning negative in the medium term.

 

[SunnyD]

I don't think that size is the sweet spot for a tablet/slate device. I think they need to be at least 8-10" to really differentiate themselves to consumers. I mean how much more powerful would a 5" device be over say, the latest smartphone? I doubt it would be enough to justify the bulkier size. And 5" doesn't really fit in your pocket unless you have cargo pants with massive pockets or something.

Most people that have tested the 4.8" prototypes of things like the Mini/Slate 5 said it fits comfortably in one's pocket.

The added size means a larger battery which in turn means longer battery life and/or the potential to power better electronics. The larger format will also make for better resolution and/or easier to read screens. It will also allow for more connectivity and/or storage options. The larger format also makes input easier. Put all those together, and you have the perfect portable device (so to speak). Replace your phone, ipod, netbook, laptop all in one fell swoop.

Again, it will still be niche, but no more so than netbooks are. Possibly less once telephony is mixed in.

And I don't know about you, but it's 5" LONG, not wide. My tightest pair of jeans has more than enough room in the pocket for that to fit comfortably. Something in the 3x5 variety shouldn't have a problem finding a home on a person.

 

[Narmer]

But it looks like it will hit 0% growth by this summer, and it is not hard to see that growth rate turning negative in the medium term.

I doubt it's just the iPad. Think about it, a netbook does two things very well: email and web browsing. As smartphones become more capable and their screens get larger, they're eating into that space as well. They are also more portable. When my laptop dies, I will never buy another one. I think I'll just get/build a desktop and have a powerful smartphone. Anything else is just redundant.

 

[AstroManLuca]

Better smartphones are eating up the low end of the market and smaller laptops are eating up the high end.

Look at how netbooks have changed over the years. Originally they were meant to be as cheap as possible, running barebones Linux distros that were much more limited than the full OSes they run now. Remember the old 7" netbooks with the huge bezels? These days, netbooks are all 9" or 10", with some larger ones thrown in too. At some point, they're simply going to merge with portable notebooks.

Netbooks were created as a response to a gap in the notebook segment. Namely, that most notebooks before netbooks came along were intended as cheap, luggable desktop replacements. People wanted subnotebook portability without subnotebook price. Now that decent power is available in small packages for cheap, I think there will be a lot more 10-12" low end notebooks pushing out netbooks.

 

[DivideBYZero]

I think it's more related to the steady price-creep in the sector. Netbooks were cheap, at around the £200 mark. Now to get anything similar now you're looking at £300-£350 for pretty much just a basic refresh to what you could once buy for the £200 price point.

 

[tatteredpotato]

I had a netbook at one point, and while good for awhile, it just gets annoying fast. I ended up giving it to my mom (Dell Mini 9) since its the one computer she can use without my dad getting on it (he doesn't have a great track record with electronics care). After my brief stint with a netbook I've decided 13" laptops and smart phones leave small enough of a gap for me. I initially wanted a laptop that was light enough to carry around everywhere, but I've decided my 13" MBP fits the bill good enough.

 

[Deeko]

They're still selling though. Clearly, they saw an explosion of sales last year, and that sales level has leveled off this year. The introduction of the iPad and other tablets-to-be will surely impact netbook sales, but the conclusion from this graph is being grossly exagerated.

Not exactly a 1:1 comparison, but the growth of the iPhone leveled off from Q4 09 to Q1 10, and we certainly aren't saying "adios" to that, are we?

 

[jpeyton]

But it looks like it will hit 0% growth by this summer, and it is not hard to see that growth rate turning negative in the medium term.

And yet, year over year, total netbook sales in 2010 are projected to be millions higher than in 2009.

Did anyone really expect the 600% growth levels to be sustained? No.

Netbooks will be around for the near future. Manufacturers aren't going to ignore a market that sells 30-40 million units per year.

 

[OBLAMA2009]

netbooks sales havent slowed because of ipad, theyve slowed because everyone who wants one already has 3 of them. they havent improved them very much so people dont really have a reason to go out and buy a new one. if they bumped the chip speeds to 2 ghz everyone would go out and get a new one

also the z450 netbooks are a little more expensive and you now have $450 culv laptops to compete with them

 

[EarthwormJim]

That's a growth chart, not a sales chart...

If growth is at 0%, that just means sales will be at the same level as they were from the previous date they're comparing. That's still a huge amount of sales.

A market can only grow so big, there's only so many people who can or will buy a laptop/netbook before you start saturating the market.

There's no mention or accounting of major sales (i.e. hot deals/lower than usual prices) which did occur during the summer 2009. There weren't that many huge sales in 2010 as of yet.

 

[zerocool84]

Netbooks aren't going anywhere. The iPad is just the newest thing out but saying it's going to replace something that does almost everything better and is cheaper is ridiculous.

 

[finbarqs]

As far as productivity, the iPad isn't second to netbooks. Performance wise, I'd give the edge to the iPad, because everything on the ipad just "works fast". netbooks still feel sluggish, but that's because they have more to do.

So I guess apple's philosophy is: if it doesn't perform well, get rid of it. They want the user experience to be notch, bar none. Plus, If Apple made a netbook, it would be the netbook to get!

Heil Apple!

 

[Deeko]

As far as productivity, the iPad isn't second to netbooks. Performance wise, I'd give the edge to the iPad, because everything on the ipad just "works fast". netbooks still feel sluggish, but that's because they have more to do.

So I guess apple's philosophy is: if it doesn't perform well, get rid of it. They want the user experience to be notch, bar none. Plus, If Apple made a netbook, it would be the netbook to get!

Heil Apple!

This is the kind of post that adds nothing useful or relevant to the thread, and is going to lead to a cadre of anti-Apple retorts, which will attract more members of "Team Apple" to the discussion, and turn this thread into a flame war.

I would advise against this kind of post.

 

[jpeyton]

As far as productivity, the iPad isn't second to netbooks.

Sure it is. Before you can do anything on the iPad, you have to ask yourself "is there an app for that?" Netbooks can run, open, edit, copy, and view anything.

Performance wise, I'd give the edge to the iPad, because everything on the ipad just "works fast". netbooks still feel sluggish, but that's because they have more to do.

A similarly configured netbook (e.g. one with 16-32GB of solid state storage) is just as fast as the iPad. Buy a $250 netbook, stick a budget SSD inside, and things are snappy.

So I guess apple's philosophy is: if it doesn't perform well, get rid of it. They want the user experience to be notch, bar none. Plus, If Apple made a netbook, it would be the netbook to get!

Apple's philosophy is: if we can't take a cut of the profit from it, get rid of it.

 

[QueBert]

Sure it is. Before you can do anything on the iPad, you have to ask yourself "is there an app for that?" Netbooks can run, open, edit, copy, and view anything.

Can they run iPad/iPhone apps?? *anything* is a bit broad. There are plenty of people like myself who have more money invested in the App store than actual PC software.

 

[M0oG0oGaiPan]

but can it run crysis?

 

[Fingolfin269]

Can they run iPad/iPhone apps?? *anything* is a bit broad. There are plenty of people like myself who have more money invested in the App store than actual PC software.

And that is how Apple hooked you. Your purchasing decisions are based more on what you have invested in the app store than other factors. It's kind of like how I won't buy another ipod because I love the zune pass. I wish apple would do something like that so I could consider the ipod again.

 

[JD50]

Can they run iPad/iPhone apps?? *anything* is a bit broad. There are plenty of people like myself who have more money invested in the App store than actual PC software.

You have got to be kidding me.

 

[TheWart]

And that is how Apple hooked you. Your purchasing decisions are based more on what you have invested in the app store than other factors. It's kind of like how I won't buy another ipod because I love the zune pass. I wish apple would do something like that so I could consider the ipod again.

They might if they ever decide to leverage their Lala purchase...

In other news, I am glad that my hyperbolic thread title generated a lot of interesting responses lol.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Yep, that's a growth chart, netbooks will continue to sell well, because even a low end notebook is more than the average consumer needs.

Netbooks fill a void, where the average Joe doesn't need to crunch corporate spreadsheets, they want a functional computer that will run Office or some suite in a pinch, and get them on Facebook or the net to do bills & the million other things that have shifted to the interwebs.

The other day, I signed up for water & power over my smartphone, it was a PITA, but I did it.

The iPad is pretty limited as far as productivity, you can do things on it, but as far as printing a receipt for the bill you just paid or the million other things you do with a computer, they just don't quite cut it, it really is a 3rd device, it'll get you on the web and let you read the paper, etc and whatever apps are available are pretty slick, but it will be years before you can use a tablet as your main PC.

I really enjoy my iPad, and my employer just fired up their WiFi & I'm psyched, they have pretty draconian internet usage rules for work PC's, not I can do stuff on my break(s) and lunch with the iPad, woot...