ABC News blog: "Democrats are Dropping Like Flies"

[ProfJohn]

Got this off the front page of Realclearpolitics.

The Democrats are having an awful week with one candidate after another dropping out or retiring or deciding not to run.

The latest news is coming out that Chris Dodd is not going to run for re-election, strangely this news might help the Democrats keep his seat.

But many of the other retirements are hurting them.

ABC news story
http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2010/01/democrats-are-dropping-like-flies.html
Chris Dodd story via WaPo
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/senate/chris-dodd-to-step-aside.html

It is going to be a very tough election night for Democrats. They will be lucky to keep the house if the bad news keeps rolling in.

 

[UberNeuman]

PJ, your simply not as good as the other PJ....

Huff, huff, derp, derp, derp.......

 

[ProfJohn]

PJ, your simply not as good as the other PJ....

Huff, huff, derp, derp, derp.......

Quit trolling.

 

[Craig234]

One of PJ's standard modes is FUD. Ths post is classic for that. It's not a bad thread in isolation, but I'm noting his very consistent pattern.

It's one of those 'we can't stand the bad guys, out with them and i with thw worse guys!' situations.

We need more progressives, not more RepublicANS.

 

[UberNeuman]

Quit trolling.

If I asked the same you, then you'd never post....

\get used to being wrong, or accept you can't shape reality as your mind sees it...

 

[Zebo]

I can't see how Republicans can win without a solid message. Their own version of "Hope and Change".... Silence and opposing 100% is not a winning strategy.

First thing they should do being law and order types is address those fraudsters who made million dollar loans to hair dressers, slapped AAA on them to sell them to retirement accounts, and bet against her being able to pay.

Next they need to adopt a UHC system Americans want.

But what am I thinking these are the mechantilists party - tired old tax cuts and deregulation is all they know and no one is buying this time.

 

[Craig234]

I can't see how Republicans can win without a solid message. Their own version of "Hope and Change".... Silence and opposing 100% is not a winning strategy.

First thing they should do being law and order types is address those fraudsters who made million dollar loans to hair dressers, slapped AAA on them to sell them to retirement accounts, and bet against her being able to pay.

Next they need to adopt a UHC system Americans want.

But what am I thinking these are the mechantilists party - tired old tax cuts and deregulation is all they know and no one is buying this time.

Easily. After the incredibly bad Bush presidency, during the buggest economic crash since the great depression, running against Sarah Palin, it was a reasonably close election.

You lose sleep if you look at our electorate.

It only takes a bit of weakening for the Republicans to get an edge. Now, they SHOULD NOT win, but they can. We need people to turn from corporatist Dems to progressive Dems not Republicans.

 

[Patranus]

It only takes a bit of weakening for the Republicans to get an edge. Now, they SHOULD NOT win, but they can. We need people to turn from corporatist Dems to progressive Dems not Republicans.

The good think is that people like having jobs and progressive Democrats do not offer any sort of job creation outside of government funded jobs. You can see where that leads....

 

[jackschmittusa]

ProfJohn ignores all of the articles that claim the Republicans might be the losers because of all the retirements in their party.

Tunnel vision can be corrected.

 

[fskimospy]

I like how the guy who predicted the Republicans would hold Congress in 2006 is now trying to tell us about 2010.

Shockingly enough, he sees good news for the extreme right wing of America. Gee, I wonder why.

 

[Craig234]

The good think is that people like having jobs and progressive Democrats do not offer any sort of job creation outside of government funded jobs. You can see where that leads....

Completely wrong again. Progressive Democrats offer the most jobs created.

Oh by the way, over the last most Republican decade the net jobs were zero.

Over the last several decades, the lowest rate for any decade was 20% growth.

That's your Republicans for us.

 

[umbrella39]

I like how the guy who predicted the Republicans would hold Congress in 2006 is now trying to tell us about 2010.

This. There is no senate race. /trollsthread

 

[Patranus]

Completely wrong again. Progressive Democrats offer the most jobs created.

Oh by the way, over the last most Republican decade the net jobs were zero.

Over the last several decades, the lowest rate for any decade was 20% growth.

That's your Republicans for us.

God. For calling a group "progressive" they are really narrow minded. I could care less about the White House. The White House does NOT control police or spending. The White House really means jack shit.

Average Stock Market gain during Democratic Congress: +9.8%
Average Stock Market gain during Republican Congress: +30.1%

This is not my opinion. These are facts.

 

[heyheybooboo]

God. For calling a group "progressive" they are really narrow minded. I could care less about the White House. The White House does NOT control police or spending. The White House really means jack shit.

Average Stock Market gain during Democratic Congress: +9.8%
Average Stock Market gain during Republican Congress: +30.1%

This is not my opinion. These are facts.

Oh, really ?




That would be more Anus Right Wing Lies and Propaganda.

What else yah got, Anus ?





--

 

[RyanPaulShaffer]

Dodd's retirement announcement is a surprise, but completely understandable. When you're an uber-liberal Democrat and you're down big in the polls in one of the truest, bluest states, it is probably time to ride off into the sunset quietly instead of being embarrassed at election time.

 

[GroundedSailor]

Oh, really ?




That would be more Anus Right Wing Lies and Propaganda.

What else yah got, Anus ?





--

Hee Hee!

also see this:

 

[ayabe]

Good riddance, all of the "Watergate babies" need to GTFO. This includes Baucus and a bunch of others.

They've been in their seats for 30 years!

 

[OrByte]

Good riddance, all of the "Watergate babies" need to GTFO. This includes Baucus and a bunch of others.

They've been in their seats for 30 years!

Thanks I'm leaning towards this position as well.

A new generation of representatives is what we need. On both sides of the aisle.

I won't miss any of the old farts.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

I don't know if the Reps are going to win or not, but I'll tell you that you'd better kick them in the nuts and stop making excuses for them like was done in Iraq. If not, guess what? You are going to be tossed.

I'm tired of playing "Toss the Turd" with both Dems and Reps.

 

[Carmen813]

Saw an article that said the RCC has enough money to fund about one Congressional race right now. Think it was at politico, did anyone else see it?

 

[nageov3t]

Oh, really ?




That would be more Anus Right Wing Lies and Propaganda.

What else yah got, Anus ?





--

so, by your own admission we should all vote republican in 2010?

 

[ProfJohn]

I can't see how Republicans can win without a solid message.

Currently Republicans and Democrats are neck and neck in generic congressional ballot polls. Based on the Republicans history of having higher turn out this means that if the election would be held now the Republicans would do very well. Perhaps not well enough to win back control, but they would certainly make the house a lot tighter and make it much harder for the Democrats to push through the rest of the Obama agenda.

Here is an old post from 538.com that explains how it all works.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/generic-house-polling-suggests.html

Basically you look at the generic poll and take 3 points from the Dems and add 3 points to the Republicans (the 3 points comes from the D's being in control of the White House)

History suggests that a 3 point advantage might be enough to swing the house from one party to another. The latest gallup poll gives the Dems a slight advantage so after adjusting the results the parties are near even or the Republicans have a slight advantage, but perhaps not enough to take over control.

Of course there is a LONG ways to go and if we don't get some jobs creation the Democrats will be doomed by next fall.

 

[Patranus]

Oh, really ?




That would be more Anus Right Wing Lies and Propaganda.

What else yah got, Anus ?





--

Wow, a graph without data.

First of all, your graph agrees with my statement that GOP congress is better for the economy.

Average Stock Market gain during Democratic Congress: +9.8%
Average Stock Market gain during Republican Congress: +30.1%

Average Stock Market gain during Democratic President:
with Democratic Congress support: +13.2%
with Republican Congress opposition: +32.6%
(+18.8% regardless of Congress)

Average Stock Market gain during Republican President:
With Democratic Congress opposition: +6.6%
With Republican Congress support: +25.3%
(+13.3% regardless of Congress)

 

[Craig234]

God. For calling a group "progressive" they are really narrow minded. I could care less about the White House. The White House does NOT control police or spending. The White House really means jack shit.

Average Stock Market gain during Democratic Congress: +9.8%
Average Stock Market gain during Republican Congress: +30.1%

This is not my opinion. These are facts.

You're wrong. The White House has enormous influence on spending policies.

Care to compare the virtually same Republican Congress under Clinton and Bush?

The progressives have never been in charge, so you have zero historical 'data' about the effects of their policies. You would have to understand the issues and policies to discuss them, and you don't.

 

[Pens1566]

This is probably just as accurate as v1.0 PJ's '06 and '08 congressional prognostications.