Anecdotal secondary information. My 2 sons (12 & 14) and their friends are avid gamers. Of the ~10 kids, 1 plays on a switch, 1 on xbox and all of them on PC and mobile. Fortnite and Roblox are staples. They couldn't give a damn about AAA games.
It's a great thread, it's too bad he doesn't allow responses.
I find it worrying that I can see myself in his descriptions: once I got into Overwatch, getting me to try games that I had bought already but wasn't in the right mindset to try was near impossible.
I have a lot of games that I know are good and would be fun experiences, I'll buy them easy, but then never get in the mindset, never want to learn their gameplay, or never get interested in a unique experience.
Meanwhile, back when OW was still up, I could feel the desire to go lose more hours into it every day, because it was like laying at the beach right in front of the waves: it was cozy, it was quiet, and the worst that could happen was that a "big wave" (real bad match) would come tickle me the wrong way.
The repetitive yet renewable nature of these types of games is really what keeps you in. The game is always the same, so you know what to expect, you are in the zone pretty much 5 minutes after restarting them, you don't need to think or be in any kind of mood.
All the while you know what to expect from the game, you don't know what to expect from the matches. Maybe you'll find a team of gods that just trounce you, maybe you'll be with a team of fools who you'll carry to victory, maybe you'll do crazy things and get destroyed, maybe you'll do crazy things and surprisingly carry your team with your play.
Interestingly, when OW2 came out, the gameplay downgrade was so damned bad that I went from wanting to play 10 hours/day to about 90 minutes before I got tired of the game. After a few months of giving up and trying again, I completely quit the game.
Which means that the entire game's job is provide a strong core gameplay experience. If your core gameplay is great, people can essentially keep playing until the content runs dry, and all you need to do is water it with new content somewhat regularly.
I'm afraid it denotes the true nature of what most people want from games: easy to approach, non-committal experiences that can bring you "just another 10 minute match" where the variables for fun are completely randomised.
As that Twitter thread says, if this is where people will increasingly spend their gaming time, AAA is even more doomed, because their offer is to pay more to get a unique experience that'll be less approachable than your regular F2P game.
Kind of steps in the social question of how does high quality art survive in a world that is increasingly obsessed with economic throughput. People don't like paying for complicated things, so all economics always boil down to offering the most approachable product. But if all we do is make eternally simpler, more commonplace and generic products, don't we just end up becoming soulless drones that keep living increasingly monotone existences?