A sign of just how shakey this "recovery" is ...

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Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
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And communists are turning capitalist as quickly as possible. (Not North Korea, of course - they are still pure, as witnessed by rampant starvation.) It's just amusing that people like you somehow think (sorry, feel) that embracing the policies that the hard core socialists are abandoning will somehow stop outsourcing, when in reality socialist policies merely speed it up.

A society cannot redistribute its way to wealth, it can only redistribute its way to the bottom. Right now Europe is leading, but the USA is giving it the old college try.

Yeh, riigght, werepossum. More slogans.

Possibly our most prosperous era, the post-WW2 period, was created with the mixed economy concepts of the New Deal and a fair amount of redistribution via progressive income taxes and estate taxes.

Soviet style communism is obviously stagnation, and darwinian capitalism is pure boom and bust, tending towards plutocracy. Not to mention that Europe's current problems stem largely from adoption of Reaganomics-style standards of banking and govt borrowing. The difference between them and us is largely due to the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, with dollar holders basically being held hostage to our own excesses and abuse wrt trade balance. The same isn't true wrt the Euro.

Neither their problems nor our own really stem from a lack of wealth or income, anyway, except that those things are not well distributed and that there's entirely too much debt compared to the ability to maintain it. That debt came into being to increase the wealth of the facilitators of its creation- the executives of the world's financial institutions. If the institutions themselves and the web of debt collapse, it's pretty meaningless from their personal perspective, since they're now so wealthy as to be financially bomb-proof. Right now, they're laughing their asses off, hedging the other side of it very strongly, adding downward pressure to the whole deal. Ride it up, drive it down. Win-win.

Nobody's arguing for ideological purity, anyway, other than yourself.
 
Oct 30, 2004
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yes and no, if we let things operate as they should (banks fail, forced to liquidate overpriced assets) then these trade imbalances would not be such a problem. You can't really fight against offshoring things that are far more expensive to do over here. If you do the companies that you try to protect will figure out the consumer doesn't have a choice but to buy crap and you get economic stagnation from lack of competition just like happened in India after Ghandi's principles were legislated.

Wait a second. There's no law that says only one or two American companies are allowed to produce certain types of goods. We have a nation of 300+ million people. Surely that population can support multiple separate manufacturers who can compete with one another.

Furthermore, a zero-dollar trade deficit does not mean "no international trade or foreign competition at all", it just means that we need to produce and sell as much value in goods and services as what we bring in. If a particular industry were uncompetitive then Americans could import the same product as a foreign good while exporting something else. Also, foreign companies could be allowed to set up shop in the U.S. (like the Japanese auto companies were forced to do).

Liberals foam at the mouth just as much too...especially over those republicans.
I think the problem is deeper than you make it. Because of mechanized production and offshored production, we shifted a lot of jobs over to unimportant things like "marketing" and "business" when we have to be employing a lot more engineers and designers to produce new things.

The problem is that you can't have an entire economy based on people's working as engineers, designers, scientists, and innovators. At best an economy could support 5% of the populace to do those jobs? What about the other 95%? (We already have an oversupply of unemployed and underemployed or underemployed-and-involuntarily-out-of-field PhD. scientists. I'm not sure how producing more scientists would help the economy.)

The things you produce should be able to sell themselves based on the need-- a company should see their business model and say "hey, we need a product that does xyz, lets search for it, oh there's one let's buy it" instead of me as a designer employing hundreds of marketers to fly around the country and convince people that their company needs product xyz.

I've always tended to regard marketing as a waste of money, too. I guess it pays for our radio and TV programming. It has some economic value in making people aware of new and better products.

Manufacturing is a dead horse, nobody here would make McDonalds widgets anyways. The jobs where we actually produced something have moved on to things that require a college education. It's typical that the manufacturing crowd wouldn't understand this need to be re-educated...seeing as they weren't educated in the first place.

We already have a large oversupply of people with college degrees. Also, just where are these college-degree-requiring jobs? What percentage of all the jobs out there actually make real use of a college degree? Perhaps 15%? If you stop and think about it, how many "desk jobs" are actually out there? (Not all of those require a college degree anyway.)

(As a result of "credential inflation" businesses are able to require that job applicants have college degrees, using it as a screening tool for IQ and responsibility because they can, not because the job actually makes any use of college education.)

Manufacturing is still very needed. Look around you. Do you see all of those high-tech electronic items? Do you see the computer? Do you see your laser printer? Do you see the flat screen TV? Can you see the telephone? Can you see your desk? In the kitchen do you see fancy nonstick pans? Do you see any light bulbs? Do you own a washing machine? Do you own a car? Do you own a house?

All of that stuff is real wealth! Pieces of paper and electrons might have value, but they are not the same as real physical wealth. (The only value they are liable to have is that they might relate to physical wealth in some sort of a way.) All of that those items were produced in a factory (or in the case of a house, constructed). Manufacturing is where the wealth comes from.

Manufacturing is not dead. It's the U.S. economy that shunned manufacturing that is dead.

If we taxed the financial elite to pay for it, there are other economies where their money can get better return and won't be taxed away. They're free to just move it wherever they please. They're the most mobile class of all of us. And if their money leaves, how are new companies supposed to get loans to start producing new products? We don't want to be like the UK where no new companies have actually made it in like 50 years.

Our nation's doors are open. Any traitors who want to leave are free to renounce their citizenship (or have it revoked) and leave permanently (or get kicked out). Of course we may have to seize some wealth from some of these people first if it's determined that they essentially stole money in various ways from the lower classes. These people do not have a monopoly on the ability to be entrepreneurial and I'm sure that eager and ambitious Americans would happily take their place.

The point I'm trying to make is this: there is no solution. The jobs moved on and you can't move them back to manufacturing. It just won't work-- not that it's not feasible to try, but that if you do it won't work economically. The jobs moved onto better things that require an education and more brainpower.

The last time I looked, people go to stores to purchase manufactured items, not boxes of "brain power".

But we don't need as many of those jobs as we needed of the manufacturing jobs. Go read Player Piano, that's exactly what's happening.

The high tech robotic manufacturing still requires having people to design the robots and to service them, etc. There are still jobs attached to the manufacturing process. If the cost of manufactured goods decreased then more money would be available to spend elsewhere, employing people in other fields.

The problem is that we've sent all of that manufacturing work and the jobs associated with it overseas. We've also sent a great many of those knowledge-based jobs overseas or filled them domestically with foreigners on H-1B and L-1 visas.

Instead of having the cost savings of more efficient manufacturing methods cycle back into the economy, it is leaking out to other nations and going into the pockets of the wealthy as profit. (Since there is more labor available worldwide, not only are they manufacturing more efficiently, they're also paying workers less money.)

Automobiles replaced buggy whips and our nation's economy chugged on. Light bulbs replaced candles and our nation's economy chugged on. There's no reason why robots replacing workers should have any different effect. What's different today is that we are sending the jobs overseas.
 
Oct 30, 2004
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IMHO, the future for America is NOT production. It is technology, energy, and medicine. This is not the industrial age anymore, and those who cling to the glory of factories are living 50 years in the past. Meanwhile, countries like China and India are not only picking up production, but also dipping into the future - energy and medicine.

Are you proposing that the U.S. produce energy and then sell it to other countries? Energy is a consumer good and probably accounts for a relatively small amount of expenditures in this country.

Health care is a larger expenditure (though it should only be 12% of the GDP like it is in other countries). Are you proposing that we build an entire economy based on treating and caring for sick people? Will we trade health care for goods and services produced abroad?

"Technology" is the same as saying, "We need to innovate". That's all fine and good, and it's a feel-good touchy-feely sort of thing that everyone, including myself, would agree with. However, perhaps only 5% of the population could be supported as innovators and we already have scads of unemployed, underemployed, and underemployed-involuntarily-out-of-field PhD. scientists.

The problem is that Americans do not have a monopoly on innovation and people in other nations are also going to want to work in the high-falutin' innovation fields.

An even larger problem is that innovation also follows manufacturing--people who are close the manufacturing operations are more likely to think of (and need to solve problems) relating to the manufacturing process. ("Necessity is the mother of invention.") Think about it. Who is more likely to be innovative--an engineer who sits in a cubicle thousands of miles away from the manufacturing problem he is trying to solve, or the engineer who actually helps fix, install, and run the manufacturing equipment?
 
Oct 30, 2004
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Comparative advantage is about the benefits of trade. If China is able to produce at such a level that comparative advantage is eliminated, they make themselves poorer by trading with us. If they are poorer for trading with us, they will probably stop trading with us.

They are using the money to purchase American businesses, real estate, and manufacturing infrastructure. They are purchasing long-term real wealth and not ephemeral consumer goods. In contrast, we are exchanging long-term wealth for short-lived consumer goods. We are becoming poorer in the long run.

The Chinese are not purchasing our goods and services; they aren't really purchasing the products of our labor. It isn't real trade in those regards.

That means Americans have no choice but to buy American. So that means that American standards of living would be determined entirely by what Americans can make. The very base level of living standards we should see in America is the total output of the American people, if we can't get better than that, we shouldn't trade.

You would think so, and eventually that is what will happen--after we have impoverished ourselves. What we are doing right now is impoverishing ourselves by obligating ourselves to pay for all of our imports later (IOUs) and by selling them businesses, manufacturing infrastructure, and real estate.

Consider it this way, we have two choices, we can either make everything we use ourselves, or we can trade. We do not have to trade, so if trading makes us poorer we should make everything ourselves. If china trades with us, we have to make something to give back to them in trade. So, if china will sell us something for less than it costs us to make it (in opportunity costs) we are richer. But, we can buy even more chinese stuff if we make more of our own stuff to trade to them. We always have to give them something for trade, and as long as we end up with more total stuff than we would if we made it all ourselves, trade helps us. But, there is no reason for us to ever go below the living standard of everything being made in America.

That's the problem--we aren't making anything to trade with them. We still have stuff to trade--our accumulated wealth.
 

BoberFett

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
37,562
9
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Energy is a consumer good and probably accounts for a relatively small amount of expenditures in this country.

That's not the impression one would get with all the hand wringing about oil. Just using some rough numbers on current price per bbl and consumption numbers, this country spends $500B per year on oil alone, not even adding in other energy sources.
 

blackangst1

Lifer
Feb 23, 2005
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Are you proposing that the U.S. produce energy and then sell it to other countries? Energy is a consumer good and probably accounts for a relatively small amount of expenditures in this country.

Why not? And as has been so elequently pointed out, physical things are needed to generate said electricity. And maintain it. Again, see China.

Health care is a larger expenditure (though it should only be 12% of the GDP like it is in other countries). Are you proposing that we build an entire economy based on treating and caring for sick people? Will we trade health care for goods and services produced abroad?

Entire? No. But, theres more to medicine than treating sick people, and you know that. R&D is a HUGE business in medicine. As is specialized practice. The actual treatment of sick people is just a fraction, and countries like China and India know it. We need to pick up the clue.

"Technology" is the same as saying, "We need to innovate". That's all fine and good, and it's a feel-good touchy-feely sort of thing that everyone, including myself, would agree with. However, perhaps only 5% of the population could be supported as innovators and we already have scads of unemployed, underemployed, and underemployed-involuntarily-out-of-field PhD. scientists.

The problem is that Americans do not have a monopoly on innovation and people in other nations are also going to want to work in the high-falutin' innovation fields.

An even larger problem is that innovation also follows manufacturing--people who are close the manufacturing operations are more likely to think of (and need to solve problems) relating to the manufacturing process. ("Necessity is the mother of invention.") Think about it. Who is more likely to be innovative--an engineer who sits in a cubicle thousands of miles away from the manufacturing problem he is trying to solve, or the engineer who actually helps fix, install, and run the manufacturing equipment?

I agree with you here; however, the problem is, due to MANY things, including but not limited to, taxes and regulation, the question is, why is it cheaper for a company to hire a Chinese company to make something and ship it here than it is to just make it here? How do you propose we get around that sticky point? Consumers arent going to buy something just because its made in the USA. Sure, some will, but not enough to keep manufacturing a viable business here. Remember-the majority of the Fortune 500 companies are international. Their allegiance is NOT, nor should it be, to the USA. It's to shareholders. Countries dont prop up companies and make their payroll (well, unless youre a banker ;) ) investors do. And if making a widget is cheaper in China than in Louisville, well, so be it. And this whole thing of China making shit is, well, shit. Do they make some shit? Sure, but so do we. But the fact is, they make products worthy of a global market. And their exports prove that.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
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www.alienbabeltech.com
That's the problem--we aren't making anything to trade with them.

We still have stuff to trade--our accumulated wealth.

Eventually even the elitists will run out of wealth as their surroundings become a mud pit.

Some will leave before they get trapped, many are leaving now.

I suspect it will be mainly the wannabees like the ones that post in here left behind.

The good news is they'll be stuck with the rest of us poor saps here too :)
 
Oct 30, 2004
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I'm sure they purchase some things from us, but far less than what we are buying from them. I'm pretty sure that our trade deficit with China is the largest part of our nation's trade deficit. At the top of the list was, "Electrical machinery and equipment", which almost suggests that they are mostly purchasing manufacturing capital from us.
 
Oct 30, 2004
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Why not? And as has been so elequently pointed out, physical things are needed to generate said electricity. And maintain it. Again, see China.

How do you propose that we send them the electricity? Bundle it up in cargo containers? Maybe we could export it to Canada and Mexico, but it seems like something that's hard to export otherwise.

I don't see any reason why the Chinese would need us to produce the "physical things needed to generate" electricity. I'm pretty sure that news reports about green energy stimulus money said that 80% of the money was going to China for wind turbine components.

Entire? No. But, theres more to medicine than treating sick people, and you know that. R&D is a HUGE business in medicine. As is specialized practice. The actual treatment of sick people is just a fraction, and countries like China and India know it. We need to pick up the clue.

What percentage of the U.S. economy do you think pharmaceutical and biotech R&D could employ? We already have a huge oversupply of people with PhD.'s in the life sciences, many of whom are slaving away at low-paid gypsy scientist positions called postdoctorates (or "postdocs"). Also, the U.S. isn't the only nation in the world that wants to do this. Europe is also involved with drug development. The other problem is that we have been training foreign graduate students for years who could easily return (or had to return after they couldn't get a third of fourth postdoc) to work on R&D in their own countries.

There's no reason to think that India and China cannot learn to manufacture their own pharmaceuticals nor that they will respect American-owned intellectual property rights (or vigorously enforce them). I also have a difficult time believing that India and China don't want to do their own biotech R&D, especially China.

Biotech and pharmaceutical R&D isn't going to be able to replace manufacturing and we already have an oversupply of people in those fields. See: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=1011712

I agree with you here; however, the problem is, due to MANY things, including but not limited to, taxes and regulation, the question is, why is it cheaper for a company to hire a Chinese company to make something and ship it here than it is to just make it here?

Low cost of labor, very abundant supply of labor, lack of labor and environmental regulations.

How do you propose we get around that sticky point?

Trade protectionism in the form of tariffs or something akin to the import credits idea that Warren Buffet suggested.

Consumers arent going to buy something just because its made in the USA. Sure, some will, but not enough to keep manufacturing a viable business here.

As a result of tariffs, the consumers will be able to choose to purchase an American made product or to purchase a more expensive foreign-made product. (Heck, even if the prices ended up being the same, it would be a huge improvement over the current situation.)

Remember-the majority of the Fortune 500 companies are international. Their allegiance is NOT, nor should it be, to the USA.

That's not a problem. If they want to do business in the United States they must follow our laws. If not then they won't be allowed to do business here and other businesses will replace them.

It's to shareholders. Countries dont prop up companies and make their payroll (well, unless youre a banker ;) ) investors do. And if making a widget is cheaper in China than in Louisville, well, so be it. And this whole thing of China making shit is, well, shit. Do they make some shit? Sure, but so do we. But the fact is, they make products worthy of a global market. And their exports prove that.

Your point is?

That we should sit idly and do nothing while widget makers (and people in other fields) in Louisville (and other U.S. cities) find themselves being reduced to the average Chinese standard of living?

Do you understand the concept of supply-and-demand for labor and what it means when the supply of labor increases dramatically relative to the demand for labor?
 

chucky2

Lifer
Dec 9, 1999
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I wonder how effective a real population control program would be in the US? Would this not help our current and looming issues?
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
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That's funny, because our jobs are being outsourced from our economy (who Heritage ranks as the 8th most free in the world) to the Chinese economy (who Heritage ranks as the 140th most free in the world). We're losing a large portion of our industry to a place where state-owned enterprises account for about 40% of the GDP. Collective ownership of industry is a lot more Socialist (at least as the term Socialism is understood on this board) than sending people welfare checks. I think you just need to re-examine how you define it. There's a difference between bad policy and Socialist policy, they are not necessarily the same thing.



I don't know why you are so concerned about this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality

We have a Gini coefficient of 45, above nearly every other modern nation. Above Singapore, Russia, Japan, Israel, New Zealand, Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, and, needless to say, nearly every European country. To give you an idea where we stand (by the CIA's numbers), we are sandwiched between Uruguay and Cameroon. So while this might make for good hyperbole, either our nation doesn't have that many redistributive policies in place or they aren't very effective (at least not giving to the lower classes, that is).

China is rapidly moving away from state-owned businesses; a couple decades ago every Chinese business of any size was state owned. While I agree that state-owned business are more socialist than are welfare checks, I'm concerned because for the first time we have both a President and a Congress dedicated to wealth seizure and redistribution. We are moving toward what China is moving from. The United States has historically been a place of innovation, where a man with a good idea and a good work ethic could become part of the wealthy class. The opportunity drives the innovation. As wealth becomes increasingly more redistributed (spread the wealth, Obama says) this innovation becomes less practical, less worthwhile. Why take a risk on developing a new product or service if the government is going to remove most of your reward for success? Wealth redistribution on top of outsourcing is going to kill America as we know it. This is of course Obama's preference - you don't "fundamentally transform" something to preserve it, after all - but it's damned sure not mine.
 

BigDH01

Golden Member
Jul 8, 2005
1,631
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China is rapidly moving away from state-owned businesses; a couple decades ago every Chinese business of any size was state owned. While I agree that state-owned business are more socialist than are welfare checks, I'm concerned because for the first time we have both a President and a Congress dedicated to wealth seizure and redistribution. We are moving toward what China is moving from. The United States has historically been a place of innovation, where a man with a good idea and a good work ethic could become part of the wealthy class. The opportunity drives the innovation. As wealth becomes increasingly more redistributed (spread the wealth, Obama says) this innovation becomes less practical, less worthwhile. Why take a risk on developing a new product or service if the government is going to remove most of your reward for success? Wealth redistribution on top of outsourcing is going to kill America as we know it. This is of course Obama's preference - you don't "fundamentally transform" something to preserve it, after all - but it's damned sure not mine.

The argument still holds no water. There is currently a huge difference between the economic freedom that exists in the United States and China. Despite this, we are outsourcing to China. I mean, the hyperbole is great, but the data doesn't support it. We would have to move in opposite directions for a very long duration for us to be anything like China, but that's where manufacturing and investment is going. In large part, because some of the policies curtailing economic freedom in China makes them desirable for investment. Policy is policy and business is business, regardless of how you feel about ideology or whether the populace or economy is free.

I just don't know where you are getting the argument. Our economic inequality in the US is only slightly short of China's and greater than three of the four Asian Tigers that China is emulating in many ways.

What you are saying basically amounts to "don't enact liberal or Socialist policies here because that will force American companies into the hands of the actual command-style, authoritarian, self-described Communists in China." The reality of the matter is that there are much larger macroeconomic issues at play, and it's been that way for awhile. It's not like this outsourcing started when the current Congress or President took office. China set out to take our production by enacting protectionist and mercantilist policies, and they are doing a fine job.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,685
136
China is rapidly moving away from state-owned businesses; a couple decades ago every Chinese business of any size was state owned. While I agree that state-owned business are more socialist than are welfare checks, I'm concerned because for the first time we have both a President and a Congress dedicated to wealth seizure and redistribution. We are moving toward what China is moving from. The United States has historically been a place of innovation, where a man with a good idea and a good work ethic could become part of the wealthy class. The opportunity drives the innovation. As wealth becomes increasingly more redistributed (spread the wealth, Obama says) this innovation becomes less practical, less worthwhile. Why take a risk on developing a new product or service if the government is going to remove most of your reward for success? Wealth redistribution on top of outsourcing is going to kill America as we know it. This is of course Obama's preference - you don't "fundamentally transform" something to preserve it, after all - but it's damned sure not mine.

Oh, please. When facts and reason fail you, just whip out a really big can of deliberately obtuse hyperbole, fling the contents in every direction.

So, uhh, you're saying that innovation is dead in Germany, Japan, S Korea, India and so forth? Or that it was dead in this country in the post-WW2 period, when top tier taxes were much higher and actual redistribution greater than it is today? Are you really that delusional?