Looking today from outside the car with trunk lid up I spotted 2 more leak points. The water trails come from what appear to be bolt attachment points from the left tail light. They appear to drain into a well behind the left wheel, not where the water pooled under the spare. I suspect that water has been getting through the gasket interface with the trunk lid. Don't know for sure, but there's absolutely evidence that water has gotten on the other side of the gasket (the gasket seat on steel flange is quite wet) and there's telltale track of muddy water on the in-side of the gasket. That doesn't prove that the water got through the gasket seal, might have gotten there some other way, but the gasket seal is suspect.
I figure I'll use clear silicone on the tail light bolts. Don't know how to deal with the gasket other than replacing it. That's what I'd need to do for the gasket, right? I could try Boomerang's idea of vegetable oil on the gasket surface and see if it makes contact all around. Then wipe off the vegetable oil, I suppose, with a rag.
Okay, tail lights are a notorious leak point. If the car has a "foam" type of gasket on the tail light, and if it's not falling to pieces when you remove the light, then you can clean it up good and reseal it with silicone. That should stop it.
I doubt water is coming by the trunk seal itself, unless the car has been tweaked in some way.
If the seal doesn't look bad, get some Sil Glyde from a parts store and lube it. Also, look from inside the trunk while it's closed and see if you see any daylight. If you can, it's likely that something is bent.
