8/8 Stock Market thread *EDIT* Lets watch what happens 8/9 now

[theeedude]

Actually the Fed stated (by its actions) that they expect the economy to be either stagnant or negative for the next two years. That is the only reason to have ZIRP especially for such an extended period of time.

Which is nothing we didn't know already. There is no catalyst for recovery. If anything, there is going to be less fiscal stimulus going forward, there are plenty of catalysts for another crash.

 

[HendrixFan]

It's going under 10,000. All the gains since then are based on fantasy economics that government handouts drive the real economy instead of the other way around.

The government handouts were to corporations to ensure they posted profits.

Same thing as senseamp said.

 

[matt0611]

I rode Yamana Gold from $3.5 to $12.5. Sure, I missed $12.5 to $15, but when people like Spidey are yelling "GOLD," I feel comfortable sitting on the sidelines, waiting for this bubble to burst. Inflation in the near term is a pipe dream at this point.

No need to be a hero for 30% return when you can be a pussy now and get a 300% return later on.

I don't think its inflation really, do you?
I think its more of flight to safety.
The market seems to be choosing treasuries/dollar, gold, and swiss francs as safety it seems to me.

 

[HendrixFan]

I don't think its inflation really, do you?
I think its more of flight to safety.
The market seems to be choosing treasuries/dollar, gold, and swiss francs as safety it seems to me.

Everytime that a new QE is announced and rolled out gold and silver skyrocket. When the QE ends, it tails off and flatlines. While I think both factors are in play, inflation seems to me to be the larger driving force of gold price.

 

[theeedude]

I don't think its inflation really, do you?
I think its more of flight to safety.
The market seems to be choosing treasuries/dollar, gold, and swiss francs as safety it seems to me.

That's what it is. But it's stupid. There is nothing safer than the US government securities.
Gold can tank 50&#37; just as fast as it doubled. We aren't even going to have 5% inflation at the rate we are going. So taking a 50% risk to avoid a <5% risk as a flight to safety is simply stupid. QE2 is ending, and fiscal stimulus is getting blocked in Congress. Where is this inflation going to come from?

 

[First]

Part of me is curious if the extensive period of record low interest rates has in some larger than anticipated way made businesses expect that interest rates will continue to remain this low and therefore not take out loans to expand/invest until they see a credible signal that interest rates will rise, be it naturally and/or as determined by the Fed/gov't. Of course, when everyone starts expecting this, you can't get the requisite growth needed to spur interest rates upwards. 2012 is going to be interesting. Hell, the end of this year is going to be very interesting.

 

[randomrogue]

Businesses, small ones at least, would take out loans if they could. Banks like BofA have simply refused to lend to small businesses.

 

[werepossum]

Pump $3 trillion into a dead dog and you'll get it to move around for a while.

😀 Best line ever.

 

[dmcowen674]

4:00 pm down 520

Nasdaq down 100

S&P down 50

Gold 1801

Oil 82

 

[theeedude]

4:00 pm down 520

Nasdaq down 100

S&P down 50

Gold 1801

Oil 82

Good times 😀

 

[Doppel]

Record low on 10 year treasury today, no wonder the stock market is screwed. Like many thought yesterday the stock market was not working in line with what it should have been.

Unlike the crash of 2009 I am far more calm now. Also only 60&#37; in equities to begin with. I'd like to see the stock market crash hard for two reasons: 1) I actually have some cash/bonds to buy more stocks and 2) the economy is totally fvcked anyway and it will help show that to the final idiots who don't realize that (I hope).

 

[Jhhnn]

Record low on 10 year treasury today, no wonder the stock market is screwed. Like many thought yesterday the stock market was not working in line with what it should have been.

Unlike the crash of 2009 I am far more calm now. Also only 60% in equities to begin with. I'd like to see the stock market crash hard for two reasons: 1) I actually have some cash/bonds to buy more stocks and 2) the economy is totally fvcked anyway and it will help show that to the final idiots who don't realize that (I hope).

The reason that 10 year treasuries are priced so low is because the market sees prospects for growth as dismal. And in an economy where 20% of taxable income goes to the top 1%, growth is essential to prop up the whole edifice. If it can't go up, it'll go down.

 

[theeedude]

Record low on 10 year treasuries? Surely the market is taking S&P downgrade seriously 😀

 

[matt0611]

The market is supposedly dropping because the credit worthiness of the US government has been downgraded, so people are selling their stocks to go into....US treasuries?

How does this make any sense at all?

 

[Red Dawn]

Blame it on John Boehenr and the Repiblican Sycophants caving into the ignorant Teabaggers

 

[Doppel]

It is somewhat ironic but i don't think this is because of US credit worthiness--it's because people are finally realizing that economy has not recovered, is a piece of sh*t, and on the chance that the fed is no longer able to keep pissing out money things will get extremely bad, in which case even a 2&#37; treasury return is at least something.

I've seen a lot of headings about how if we have another recession it will be much worse than the first.

 

[theeedude]

The market is supposedly dropping because the credit worthiness of the US government has been downgraded, so people are selling their stocks to go into....US treasuries?

How does this make any sense at all?

It doesn't. The market is tanking because the rally of last 2 years was based on assumption that economy is going to recover. Now we know that it's not recovering, and we also know that the Fed is already at zero interest, and we know that any fiscal stimulus is likely to be blocked by teabaggers. So there isn't anything that we can hope will stop us from falling into a recession short of some miracle. Noone believes S&P downgrade. This is company that told us mortgage securities backed by liar loans were AAA, and now it wants to tell us that securities backed by the US government and Federal reserve that is able to print unlimited amounts of money are AA+.
So if you believe S&P, a guy with no verified income was AAA risk 4 years ago, but a guy with a verified, certified, perfectly legal money printing machine is AA+ ? 😀

 

[Doppel]

It doesn't. The market is tanking because the rally of last 2 years was based on assumption that economy is going to recover. Now we know that it's not recovering, and we also know that the Fed is already at zero interest, and we know that any fiscal stimulus is likely to be blocked by teabaggers. So there isn't anything that we can hope will stop us from falling into a recession short of some miracle. Noone believes S&P downgrade. This is company that told us mortgage securities backed by liar loans were AAA, and now it wants to tell us that securities backed by the US government and Federal reserve that is able to print unlimited amounts of money are AA+.
So if you believe S&P, a guy with no verified income was AAA risk 4 years ago, but a guy with a verified, certified, perfectly legal money printing machine is AA+ ? 😀

Yeah the S&P thing is a bit of a joke. Should be interesting to see where the economy goes in the next year!

 

[Jhhnn]

The market is supposedly dropping because the credit worthiness of the US government has been downgraded, so people are selling their stocks to go into....US treasuries?

How does this make any sense at all?

Ask the right wing sources you seem to place so much faith in. They'll find something that fits into the rest of their story you've already bought... the emotionally satisfying catch phrases are already planted in your deductive processes, so leading you around in circles is child's play for their master propagandists...

 

[matt0611]

Ask the right wing sources you seem to place so much faith in. They'll find something that fits into the rest of their story you've already bought... the emotionally satisfying catch phrases are already planted in your deductive processes, so leading you around in circles is child's play for their master propagandists...

I said "supposedly" because thats not what is happening.

I agree with senseamp actually, the market is plunging because we're going back into a recession, the only logical place that this economy built on sand could go.

Now people are getting out of stocks and going into safer things like gold, treasuries etc.

Makes perfect sense to me.

 

[spidey07]

Never been a better time to buy real estate, 10 year yields low = super low mortgage rates. If you haven't refinanced recently, you better, hell go for a 10 year. And never been a better time to get physical gold, and I'm sure people will poo-poo that idea now, just as they did when it was 1200/1300.

 

[sportage]

Stocks go up, stocks go down. The thing to pay close attention to are possible bank failures. B of A should be watched closly. If they fail, the party is truly over.
Buddy can you spare a dime?

 

[Doppel]

And never been a better time to get physical gold, and I'm sure people will poo-poo that idea now, just as they did when it was 1200/1300.

Actually a better time would have been at 1200/1300. Gold is going parabolic. People have said it is a bubble for years because it is. Nobody can say when it will pop but it will pop and it will be quite a drop indeed. Then it will sour people until the next generation has a crisis and jumps on it as well, not heeding the lessons of before.

 

[Jhhnn]

Yeah the S&P thing is a bit of a joke. Should be interesting to see where the economy goes in the next year!

The economy isn't going anywhere but down for some while, simply because of the enormous over extension of credit created by the policy of the Ownership Society. That collapse is hammering the middle class & demand in a way that no stock market crash ever could. Millions of families gambled big on ever increasing home prices & income, and lost very big in the process. They're in financial lockdown, one way or another. If they're meeting their obligations on over priced real estate, they have little money to spend otherwise, if they're in default they have no credit, and if they got laid off, they're just plain screwed.

High profits & low taxes mean that the ownership class is sitting pretty, and from their perspective there's no point in taking any chances, so they won't- they don't have to. Only a small part of their income is spent, used to sustain their lifestyles, and they're just trying to achieve safety in an obviously dismal situation.

 

[werepossum]

Never been a better time to buy real estate, 10 year yields low = super low mortgage rates. If you haven't refinanced recently, you better, hell go for a 10 year. And never been a better time to get physical gold, and I'm sure people will poo-poo that idea now, just as they did when it was 1200/1300.

Never been a better time to buy real estate IF you have cash or a nice, safe government income. I've already missed paychecks to avoid laying off employees; nothing is going to tempt me back into debt.

And if I was to buy, it would be modestly priced Section 8 rental property.