7800Ultra cancelled

[Topweasel]

Originally posted by: ronnn

Nope, totally wrong. Nvidia is now getting around $1000.00 for a top line vid card set up.
This includes sli premium for mb. Also buyer is paying more for ps. They have successfully doubled what the suckers will pay for top line! The competition forcing the price of the gtx down is all those x850 and x800 xt pe going for fire sale prices. Nividia needs to compete in the upper midrange market. If Nvidia or Ati had a card that is competative with sli at $'s per fps at $700.00 - it would have a market.

Your wrong, sorry but you are. Think about it, yes they now sell a SLI chipset okay given. They Make money on a chipset, also given. But ask yourself this when was the last time you heard of someone buying a PC video card without having a motherboard? You haven't unless the person was stupid or was building a PC part by part in which a mobo would be sold. The actuall Premium for SLI is roughly $25-$50. Now for them they don't have any kind of gaurantee that people would actually use it for SLI, that extra 16x slot has many uses and the uses are growing as we speak. So for them chipsets are a different market that they can tie into video but it is still a different market.

Since when did Nvidia sell PSUs, never to them they don't care what people need to get and how much they spend on PSUs because they have absolutely no market penetration in PSUs. So any Money spent on PSUs is insignifcant to determining whether to sell a new video adapter.

There are always going to be people that Buy the highest end. Look at the Mclaren F1 a million dollar low production card that they sold all of for about $1,000,000. But For Nvidia They have to look a what makes sense. Lets say they can make an Ultra that has a 550MHz core. To do this they Lower their yields on that line just to get the Highend King. what you run into is a diminshing return. Unlike the Mclaren where everyone built is sold, Nvidia would have to literly throw away a given amount of chips for each one that is sellable as an Ultra. What you run into is the loss of possibly 3 or 4 GTXs or 7 or 8 GTs. To justify this they would have to sell the Ultra for 4x a GTX to make back those lost sales. Then on the other hand if they have a High yield rate on the Ultra then that means they have a Large amount of those going to retail stores. Now common sense will tell us that a $700 card wount sell as well as a $600 card or a $600 selling as well as a $500 card and so on. If there is a large stock of the card then retailers need to lower the cost of the card to keep stock turning over. Free market has already proved that the GTXs value is around $500 instead of the original $600 and that the GT even before going on sale automatically had a value $50 less then MSRP. I doubt that a decent yield card would live long at $700.

SLI Is an a Great Idea. It allows them to sell those usuall low production Mclarens, without effecting yields. Those People that are willing to buy $1000 video cards an now purchase them without have to produce low yield and production destroying parts. It lets the Market work out a max price on their single card, and then give those people who are willing to pay for it their Jaguar for twice the price.

 

[compgeek89]

name one other use for the SLI PCIe slot

 

[Topweasel]

RIAD, Mutiple monitor (4 but if Matrox release a Perhelia for PCIe then 6) support, Super high bandwidth netowrking (Not sure if the have 4x or higher cards for PCIe but it will happen).

 

[Acanthus]

Originally posted by: Topweasel

Originally posted by: ronnn

Nope, totally wrong. Nvidia is now getting around $1000.00 for a top line vid card set up.
This includes sli premium for mb. Also buyer is paying more for ps. They have successfully doubled what the suckers will pay for top line! The competition forcing the price of the gtx down is all those x850 and x800 xt pe going for fire sale prices. Nividia needs to compete in the upper midrange market. If Nvidia or Ati had a card that is competative with sli at $'s per fps at $700.00 - it would have a market.

Your wrong, sorry but you are. Think about it, yes they now sell a SLI chipset okay given. They Make money on a chipset, also given. But ask yourself this when was the last time you heard of someone buying a PC video card without having a motherboard? You haven't unless the person was stupid or was building a PC part by part in which a mobo would be sold. The actuall Premium for SLI is roughly $25-$50. Now for them they don't have any kind of gaurantee that people would actually use it for SLI, that extra 16x slot has many uses and the uses are growing as we speak. So for them chipsets are a different market that they can tie into video but it is still a different market.

Since when did Nvidia sell PSUs, never to them they don't care what people need to get and how much they spend on PSUs because they have absolutely no market penetration in PSUs. So any Money spent on PSUs is insignifcant to determining whether to sell a new video adapter.

There are always going to be people that Buy the highest end. Look at the Mclaren F1 a million dollar low production card that they sold all of for about $1,000,000. But For Nvidia They have to look a what makes sense. Lets say they can make an Ultra that has a 550MHz core. To do this they Lower their yields on that line just to get the Highend King. what you run into is a diminshing return. Unlike the Mclaren where everyone built is sold, Nvidia would have to literly throw away a given amount of chips for each one that is sellable as an Ultra. What you run into is the loss of possibly 3 or 4 GTXs or 7 or 8 GTs. To justify this they would have to sell the Ultra for 4x a GTX to make back those lost sales. Then on the other hand if they have a High yield rate on the Ultra then that means they have a Large amount of those going to retail stores. Now common sense will tell us that a $700 card wount sell as well as a $600 card or a $600 selling as well as a $500 card and so on. If there is a large stock of the card then retailers need to lower the cost of the card to keep stock turning over. Free market has already proved that the GTXs value is around $500 instead of the original $600 and that the GT even before going on sale automatically had a value $50 less then MSRP. I doubt that a decent yield card would live long at $700.

SLI Is an a Great Idea. It allows them to sell those usuall low production Mclarens, without effecting yields. Those People that are willing to buy $1000 video cards an now purchase them without have to produce low yield and production destroying parts. It lets the Market work out a max price on their single card, and then give those people who are willing to pay for it their Jaguar for twice the price.

You have the right idea... but in practice a chip that would be used as an ultra would be the same as a GTX chip.

One that wouldnt do ultra speeds would be simply clocked down and sold as a GTX, one with a bad quad would have a quad disabled and be sold as a GT. They wouldnt be thrown out entirely.

 

[Topweasel]

Not really, You can get GTX cards that out of the box are running at 490. To make sure you can actually sell the Ultra you would have to get it to clock higher then that 530-550 being the Probable range, the problem is very very few of a non-large production Video card (they have only sold 10s of thousands of the 7800 (GT or GTX)) would hit that on air infact something around 1%-2%. To actually be able to make a sellable product they may have to make a new stepping or what not that is more likely to produce 550MHz Ultras the problem is this might and probably does make the DOA of some of the dyes be higher so yields would drop. So what you run into is Cores that are either completely dead or even alot that will not even run at GTX speeds or allows you to use GT amount of pipes. Some of the cores (which can be happening right now) could still technically run but would run at such low speeds it wouldn't even be worth it to sell it. Nothing is ever that simple.

 

[Acanthus]

Originally posted by: Topweasel
Not really, You can get GTX cards that out of the box are running at 490. To make sure you can actually sell the Ultra you would have to get it to clock higher then that 530-550 being the Probable range, the problem is very very few of a non-large production Video card (they have only sold 10s of thousands of the 7800 (GT or GTX)) would hit that on air infact something around 1%-2%. To actually be able to make a sellable product they may have to make a new stepping or what not that is more likely to produce 550MHz Ultras the problem is this might and probably does make the DOA of some of the dyes be higher so yields would drop. So what you run into is Cores that are either completely dead or even alot that will not even run at GTX speeds or allows you to use GT amount of pipes. Some of the cores (which can be happening right now) could still technically run but would run at such low speeds it wouldn't even be worth it to sell it. Nothing is ever that simple.

So in essence youre saying that scenario is wrong because a new stepping could reduce yeilds to less than what the G70 is currently at?

They simply wouldnt release a stepping with lower yields.

 

[T9D]

Originally posted by: BenSkywalker

Nope, if Nvidia could widen their lead and get the top of the line boys to buy again. They would.

This is where we hit our major problem with the entire scenario. nVidia has just launched a new part that only competes with its prior part that had no competition. This means that nVidia must lower the price on the lower cost higher yield GTXs and GTs to make room for the Ultra.

No they dont. It fits in just fine. The GTX is about $499 right now. So an Ultra fits in perfect at $599 and no other models have to be lowered in price.

Anyway I'm betting they are just going to put out a new line soon. Instead of calling it the ultra they are going to just make it the 7900 or something.

 

[Munky]

Originally posted by: tk109

Originally posted by: BenSkywalker

Nope, if Nvidia could widen their lead and get the top of the line boys to buy again. They would.

This is where we hit our major problem with the entire scenario. nVidia has just launched a new part that only competes with its prior part that had no competition. This means that nVidia must lower the price on the lower cost higher yield GTXs and GTs to make room for the Ultra.

No they dont. It fits in just fine. The GTX is about $499 right now. So an Ultra fits in perfect at $599 and no other models have to be lowered in price.

Anyway I'm betting they are just going to put out a new line soon. Instead of calling it the ultra they are going to just make it the 7900 or something.

But look at what the IHVs are doing with the gtx - all these factory overclocks are already pushing close to 500mhz on the core. Unless there's 4-8 more pipes to be unlocked in the G70, it would be pretty dumb to release a $600 ultra that's basically the same as an overclocked $500 gtx, especially one that's factory overclocked.

IMO, while NV has the top crown for now, they should get ready to release some competitive mid-range cards, because rumors has it that the r520-based midrange cards will be released before the r520 high end model. If NV cant keep up in the midrange segment or delays it's products, then they will lose money. I'm sure Nv could easily release a midrange 12-16 pipe 7800, but whether or not it will keep up with the likes of the rv530 and such, that's a whole other question.

 

[Topweasel]

Originally posted by: Acanthus

Originally posted by: Topweasel
Not really, You can get GTX cards that out of the box are running at 490. To make sure you can actually sell the Ultra you would have to get it to clock higher then that 530-550 being the Probable range, the problem is very very few of a non-large production Video card (they have only sold 10s of thousands of the 7800 (GT or GTX)) would hit that on air infact something around 1%-2%. To actually be able to make a sellable product they may have to make a new stepping or what not that is more likely to produce 550MHz Ultras the problem is this might and probably does make the DOA of some of the dyes be higher so yields would drop. So what you run into is Cores that are either completely dead or even alot that will not even run at GTX speeds or allows you to use GT amount of pipes. Some of the cores (which can be happening right now) could still technically run but would run at such low speeds it wouldn't even be worth it to sell it. Nothing is ever that simple.

So in essence youre saying that scenario is wrong because a new stepping could reduce yeilds to less than what the G70 is currently at?

They simply wouldnt release a stepping with lower yields.

Sure they would, when you are in a cut throat fight for performance. Do to the lack of an Enemy from ATI, the window in which a even higher performance and lower yield product for Halo reasons has passed. At this point the Amount of time left for the 520 as the highest performing Halo product would be so short that their would be no reason to impact production of already profitable cores, lower their value, for an extra 2-3 months of conrtol over the Performance throne beofore their Refresh hits. This is assuming that the 520 would beat the GTX which nobody but ATI knows.

People Forget how much Halo products impact sales on other products. Nvidia has gained to much credit for having a product, having massive performance earlier, have large quantities of said product, and having product available the day of release, to Start taking potshots at their bottom line. It just doesn't make sense, why would they feel the need to prove themselves against a oft delayed, super low production, an possibly slow and maybe faster product.

You don't use the stepping for lower yield golden samples unless you have to. Nvidia doesn't have to.

 

[ronnn]

Originally posted by: Topweasel
You don't use the stepping for lower yield golden samples unless you have to. Nvidia doesn't have to.

In this scenario you are talking limited edition benchmark release only. Or in other words Nvidia does not have a workable ultra. Really is not Ati's fault that Nvidia is not releasing an ultra version - that will actually be available at a price that competes with its performance. Ati has many faults, but that is not one of them.