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$.75/gallon gas? Wait for it... /EDIT: COLLAPSE of global oil industry

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Ajay said:
Even though I am in favor of renewable energy, that was funny.
Click to expand...

What's hilarious are stupid politicians like AoC making tons of tweets about how now is the time because of negative oil pricing that we should invest in "The Green New Deal (tm)"

1587564062234.png


Uhhhh... I don't know if you know how economics works, but if your idea in life is going with option B when Option A is so cheap that people will PAY YOU to take it.... and Option B is to buy renewable energy sources that are highly priced (even with tax subsidies), and much lower in supply than you need your head examined. You seriously have mental deficiencies.


I mean, if you got your degree in economics then the University really needs to revoke it if you can't understand the beginner-grade simplicity of supply/demand.
 
s0me0nesmind1 said:
What's hilarious are stupid politicians like AoC making tons of tweets about how now is the time because of negative oil pricing that we should invest in "The Green New Deal (tm)"

View attachment 19995


Uhhhh... I don't know if you know how economics works, but if your idea in life is going with option B when Option A is so cheap that people will PAY YOU to take it.... and Option B is to buy renewable energy sources that are highly priced (even with tax subsidies), and much lower in supply than you need your head examined. You seriously have mental deficiencies.


I mean, if you got your degree in economics then the University really needs to revoke it if you can't understand the beginner-grade simplicity of supply/demand.
Click to expand...
Or maybe it's just Earth Day.
 
s0me0nesmind1 said:
What's hilarious are stupid politicians like AoC making tons of tweets about how now is the time because of negative oil pricing that we should invest in "The Green New Deal (tm)"

View attachment 19995


Uhhhh... I don't know if you know how economics works, but if your idea in life is going with option B when Option A is so cheap that people will PAY YOU to take it.... and Option B is to buy renewable energy sources that are highly priced (even with tax subsidies), and much lower in supply than you need your head examined. You seriously have mental deficiencies.


I mean, if you got your degree in economics then the University really needs to revoke it if you can't understand the beginner-grade simplicity of supply/demand.
Click to expand...
She's 100% correct, and you're 100% wrong.
 
s0me0nesmind1 said:
I like your reasons - you have a sound argument. I admit defeat 😉
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Investment should be forward looking and not backwards. Oil is backwards. Renewable is forward. You don't see the market investing in Ford because it's so cheap. People are investing in Tesla because that's the future. Pouring money into oil is throwing good money after bad. Oil is not the future. Renewable is. That's where the future jobs will be. You want America to be great in the future? Invest in renewable. Because that's where the world is headed. That's where China is investing.
 
ponyo said:
Investment is forward looking and not backwards. Oil is backwards. Renewable is forward. You don't see the market investing in Ford because it's so cheap. People are investing in Tesla because that's the future. Pouring money into oil is throwing good money after bad. Oil is not the future. Renewable is. That's where the future jobs will be. You want America to be great in the future? Invest in renewable. Because that's where the world is headed. That's where China is investing.
Click to expand...
China isn't investing in oil because it has none. You know what China is investing in? Oil in other countries - as well as massive infrastructure in LNG regasification and petchem plants to make plastics from...ding ding ding... oil.

Thinking of oil as purely a source of gasoline for motor vehicles is short sighted - the majority of demand is elsewhere.
 
deadlyapp said:
Thinking of oil as purely a source of gasoline for motor vehicles is short sighted - the majority of demand is elsewhere.
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Gasoline is easily the majority of oil demand. Maybe if oil remains this cheap it will make a comeback for heating but gasoline would still dwarf it.
 
jpiniero said:
Gasoline is easily the majority of oil demand. Maybe if oil remains this cheap it will make a comeback for heating but gasoline would still dwarf it.
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"Easily the majority of oil demand" ?

It doesn't even make up 50% of oil usage (and even less depending on where it's drilled from). The largest share? Yeah sure, but again, his point is that you are incredibly short-sited if that's all you think the oil industry is centered around (and specifically, just the gasoline used by motor vehicles).
 
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products_from_barrel_crude_oil.png
 
s0me0nesmind1 said:
"Easily the majority of oil demand" ?

It doesn't even make up 50% of oil usage (and even less depending on where it's drilled from). The largest share? Yeah sure, but again, his point is that you are incredibly short-sited if that's all you think the oil industry is centered around (and specifically, just the gasoline used by motor vehicles).
Click to expand...

As you are seeing, the oil industry will collapse without gasoline demand.
 
s0me0nesmind1 said:
What's hilarious are stupid politicians like AoC making tons of tweets about how now is the time because of negative oil pricing that we should invest in "The Green New Deal (tm)"

View attachment 19995


Uhhhh... I don't know if you know how economics works, but if your idea in life is going with option B when Option A is so cheap that people will PAY YOU to take it.... and Option B is to buy renewable energy sources that are highly priced (even with tax subsidies), and much lower in supply than you need your head examined. You seriously have mental deficiencies.


I mean, if you got your degree in economics then the University really needs to revoke it if you can't understand the beginner-grade simplicity of supply/demand.
Click to expand...
I don't pay allot of attention to AOC because my views don't align with hers and the DSA. She can say whatever she wants. The point stands, however, that we need to transition away from hydrocarbon based energy sources. Combustion of such source leads to the build up of of gases in the atmosphere that will, if unchecked, cost the lives of billions of people and make the great depression look like an economic boom. I suspect you know this already.
 
Miramonti said:
And how is your sunlight collection going?
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If it was not for snow it would be going well for my small array. I eventually want to buy a bigger property so I have room to build a larger array and put the panels vertical and snow will be less of an issue, and live off that power. Once it's setup it will continue to provide as much power as I want without costing me anything to operate it or having to rely on any volatile market. Lot of people do it.

Would like to experiment with wind too. That is more DIY friendly as far as the more raw materials go as there is less "voodoo magic" involved it's just all mechanical stuff. With solar you're still relying on China and the inefficient processes they use to make the panels, and on technology that you can't exactly repair in a total apocalyptic situation. Still better for the environment than continuously burning oil product though, since oil product only needed to be burned once for the life of the panel. Same with EVs, yeah there is a carbon footprint to make them, but everything else does too, at least it's only once for it's life time not throughout the whole life time.

There is lot of room for improvement to manufacture solar panels more efficiently though such as using green energy to make them and using green energy to transport them, and having factories here. I don't think there are any in North America that make the actual cells, and that is a problem.

While oil is cheap it may not make sense on the surface to talk about renewables but reality is, it's cheap because of politics, and we know that relying on something that volatile is still not great long term. If someone farts too loudly in Saudi Arabia or someone speaks too moistly in Alberta, the prices are going to go way back up and gasoline prices are going to be double what they were before all this happened.
 
I'm still waiting on Tesla to start installing solar in Georgia. My fear is I will need a new roof before Tesla enters GA market. I'm so ready to be energy independent and power my home with solar and store the excess energy with 3 Powerwalls. And switch to Tesla for all our cars.

vrZi6Igl.png
 
Ajay said:
I don't pay allot of attention to AOC because my views don't align with hers and the DSA. She can say whatever she wants. The point stands, however, that we need to transition away from hydrocarbon based energy sources. Combustion of such source leads to the build up of of gases in the atmosphere that will, if unchecked, cost the lives of billions of people and make the great depression look like an economic boom. I suspect you know this already.
Click to expand...

Absolutely.

But telling people that a huge glut of oil driving down the prices is a reasonable and/or rational basis to make a hard transition is just stupidity at its finest. It doesn't make any sense.
 
ponyo said:
I'm still waiting on Tesla to start installing solar in Georgia. My fear is I will need a new roof before Tesla enters GA market. I'm so ready to be energy independent and power my home with solar and store the excess energy with 3 Powerwalls. And switch to Tesla for all our cars.

vrZi6Igl.png
Click to expand...

Wish I had room on my current property for a good setup. I would definitely do it. I find the Tesla route is a bit expensive for my taste though, I'd probably just do traditional panels. My roof has room for around 1-3kw depending how I place them. 1kw is more realistic physically as to get 3 I need to put them in oddball orientations. Spit level houses have more complex roofs. So not enough to live off of unfortunately.

Big issue is the snow though, really need to automate a way to get rid of it or use vertical ground mount. Even then, this year especially we got a couple snow storms where the snow was really weird, it was almost like spray foam. That would completely ruin even a vertical solar installation. Suppose I could have pex tubing behind the panels and run heated glycol that is heated with a wood boiler.

Would definitely be cool to come fossil fuel independent and it's my goal eventually, just need a bigger property in my case. The world is designed to force us to use fossil fuel so it makes it harder as everything that is easily obtainable is gas powered. But it's doable. We're starting to see a bit more of a push for electric vehicles and such.
 
jpiniero said:
As you are seeing, the oil industry will collapse without gasoline demand.
Click to expand...
The oil industry is collapsing because a huge amount of additional capacity was let loose on the market - we're no longer letting supply and demand run things, we're letting geopolitical positioning drive things - and 20+ years ago when we hadn't developed a massive structure around oil production in the USA, we would have probably not had the same collapse as we're seeing now.

The oil collapse is many fold, but the gasoline demand is only a small piece of it. As can be seen by the graphic up above, as you crack a barrel of crude oil, you get many products - and you can't just throw those products away. So jet fuel demand has dropped a huge amount, gasoline demand has dropped some amount (probably not as significant as jet), and distillates and diesel (used in trucking, ocean transport, etc) are probably also down as well due to restricted overseas trade and factory slowdowns.

So you have a machine (the oil industry) in a state where you suddenly have huge amounts of crude oil available at extremely cheap prices, which in normal circumstances would be awesome for many parts of the oil industry. Refining margins increase, you're going into the summer months where demand is high, and the overall net consumption of the world continues to increase (part of it is due to personal vehicles, but much of it is actually the byproducts of oil production - natural gas, ethane, propane, etc). However at the same time COVID has come around so you've got lower consumption worldwide on all facets, and the storage for both crude oil and products is finite (and it takes months to build a new tank), so you've got crude still coming out of the ground, pipelines still trying to transport it, but nowhere for it to go because the refineries bought oil from someone cheaper, the refineries are running out of space to store gas and jet because nobody will buy it, and it just spirals out from there.
 
Red Squirrel said:
If it was not for snow it would be going well for my small array. I eventually want to buy a bigger property so I have room to build a larger array and put the panels vertical and snow will be less of an issue, and live off that power. Once it's setup it will continue to provide as much power as I want without costing me anything to operate it or having to rely on any volatile market. Lot of people do it.

Would like to experiment with wind too. That is more DIY friendly as far as the more raw materials go as there is less "voodoo magic" involved it's just all mechanical stuff. With solar you're still relying on China and the inefficient processes they use to make the panels, and on technology that you can't exactly repair in a total apocalyptic situation. Still better for the environment than continuously burning oil product though, since oil product only needed to be burned once for the life of the panel. Same with EVs, yeah there is a carbon footprint to make them, but everything else does too, at least it's only once for it's life time not throughout the whole life time.

There is lot of room for improvement to manufacture solar panels more efficiently though such as using green energy to make them and using green energy to transport them, and having factories here. I don't think there are any in North America that make the actual cells, and that is a problem.

While oil is cheap it may not make sense on the surface to talk about renewables but reality is, it's cheap because of politics, and we know that relying on something that volatile is still not great long term. If someone farts too loudly in Saudi Arabia or someone speaks too moistly in Alberta, the prices are going to go way back up and gasoline prices are going to be double what they were before all this happened.
Click to expand...

The one thing about solar you're forgetting is batteries. While you don't have to have batteries for your home, you do if you are totally off the grid and want electricity once the sun goes down.
Tesla battery life seems pretty damned good...Musk says he's shooting for one million mile battery life...but the environmental costs of those batteries is pretty high...and, should "shit happen," they're expensive to replace.
 
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