538 says 90.9% chance Obama wins reelection

[buckshot24]

nh, va, co

How very generous of you!

Colorado is done, Romney
Virginia will be closer Romney still wins.
New Hampshire could go either way.

 

[stlc8tr]

Since the odds are so bad would you give me 10-1 odds in a bet?

Since you're so confident in a Romney win, how much did you put down on him on any of the sites (Intrade, Betfair, etc.)?

 

[Charles Kozierok]

He's going to get exposed tonight.

If Silver is wrong, he'll learn from his mistakes, analyze the data, and make his model better for 2016. Because that's what scientists do.

Of course, the odds are actually that know-nothing fools like yourself will get exposed tonight, not Silver. And even if you're wrong, you'll learn nothing anyway. Because that's what clueless "pundits" do.

 

[lotus503]

How very generous of you!

Colorado is done, Romney
Virginia will be closer Romney still wins.
New Hampshire could go either way.

thing is Obama still has a shot in FL and if he takes Florida its game over.

I don't suspect CO will go Romney but its possible.

 

[shira]

the election will be close 538 is just saying there is a high chance it will be close in Obama's favor.

Yes. This is a good way of putting it.

 

[TuxDave]

Since you're so confident in a Romney win, how much did you put down on him on any of the sites (Intrade, Betfair, etc.)?

The BGOV Barometer shows Obama with a 68 percent chance of victory as of 5 p.m. yesterday. That means it cost $6.80 to win $10 should Obama win. Intrade state-by-state wagering gave Obama at least 281 electoral votes, 11 more than he needs to regain the presidency.

Sounds like an easy place to make some money.

 

[Moonbeam]

Obama will get 309. But don't forget I have no idea who will win.

 

[randomrogue]

CNN is starting to call states.

Kentucky: Romney with 4% of the vote counted
Vermont: Obama with 0% of the vote counted

 

[Doppel]

So far Nate's projections have been excellent, at least his state ones (I don't care about Senate and haven't paid attention).

 

[SheHateMe]

Hey, fuck you..I thought you were offering $538!

 

[Balt]

He's going to get exposed tonight.

Nate is awaiting your apology.

 

[shira]

So far Nate's projections have been excellent, at least his state ones (I don't care about Senate and haven't paid attention).

From what I'm seeing, Virginia may go to Romney; that would be at odds with Silver's forecast. But all his other forecasts appear to be spot on.

 

[Paul98]

From what I'm seeing, Virginia may go to Romney; that would be at odds with Silver's forecast. But all his other forecasts appear to be spot on.

I wouldn't call it quite this early

 

[lotus503]

thing is Obama still has a shot in FL and if he takes Florida its game over.

I don't suspect CO will go Romney but its possible.

/thread

 

[Bird222]

Apparently gay math is pretty good.