538 says 90.9% chance Obama wins reelection

[Acanthus]

Weird, considering all of the news outlets are calling it a dead heat.

Are they just trying to drive up ratings?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

 

[Mxylplyx]

I think news organizations are just trying to drum up readers and viewers. They focus too heavily on the national polls when it is the state polls that matter. I think it is misleading to suggest this is a horse race, but I guess we will find out soon enough.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

You're a bit late to the party. 538 has been discussed extensively in other threads.

The number is based on a mathematical model that hasn't been changed recently. There's no ulterior motive.

 

[Jimzz]

Those calling dead heat are the National poll. We have the Electoral College, so popular vote matters very little (just ask Gore or Bush2).

The reason Obama is weighing so heavy in regards to winning is he is up in the swing states.
That and many conservatives like myself are not voting Obama but not Romney either, Gary Johnson.

 

[lotus503]

the election will be close 538 is just saying there is a high chance it will be close in Obama's favor.

 

[Acanthus]

You're a bit late to the party. 538 has been discussed extensively in other threads.

The number is based on a mathematical model that hasn't been changed recently. There's no ulterior motive.

This is with the final updates to polling using their pretty damn accurate model.

 

[mshan]

LOL, Princeton Election has been at 99% - 100% for last few days: http://election.princeton.edu/

 

[Gonad the Barbarian]

Our news outlets report news with little regard to truth, fact, or reality.

 

[hal2kilo]

Our news outlets report news with little regard to truth, fact, or reality.

Ceased being news when they were made profit centers.

 

[ichy]

Electionprojection.com is also projecting an Obama win and they're a pretty conservative site. Polling data on a state by state level favors Obama although it will be close.

 

[buckshot24]

LOL, Princeton Election has been at 99% - 100% for last few days: http://election.princeton.edu/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

 

[Blackjack200]

Meanwhile, all the "liberal bias" networks like CNN, CBS, NBC, etc are reporting a dead heat while Fox News commentators predict landslide wins for Romney.

Fox figured out the formula: tell big enough lies that the media will split the difference between the truth and what you're saying so they can claim fairness.

 

[Moonbeam]

LOL, Princeton Election has been at 99% - 100% for last few days: http://election.princeton.edu/

Yeah, but don't forget that because the election results are not yet actually known, that 100% can only be a round up from something between 99.5% to 99.99 or as many more 9s as you want to add. Let's not count Romney out yet.

 

[buckshot24]

Meanwhile, all the "liberal bias" networks like CNN, CBS, NBC, etc are reporting a dead heat while Fox News commentators predict landslide wins for Romney.

Fox figured out the formula: tell big enough lies that the media will split the difference between the truth and what you're saying so they can claim fairness.

You have no idea what liberal bias is, do you?

 

[buckshot24]

Yeah, but don't forget that because the election results are not yet actually known, that 100% can only be a round up from something between 99.5% to 99.99 or as many more 9s as you want to add. Let's not count Romney out yet.

Since the odds are so bad would you give me 10-1 odds in a bet?

 

[Gonad the Barbarian]

Meanwhile, all the "liberal bias" networks like CNN, CBS, NBC, etc are reporting a dead heat while Fox News commentators predict landslide wins for Romney.

Fox figured out the formula: tell big enough lies that the media will split the difference between the truth and what you're saying so they can claim fairness.

Now if the general population would just figure out that formula.

 

[mshan]

2008 was a blow out in electoral college and popular vote (Frontline episode on Financial Crisis said that election was over right after McLame suspended his campaign because of financial crisis and was fumbling his talking points on index cards at meeting), and I forgot, but didn't main stream media not call election till some time after 11 PM?



Episode 2 (start around 42:45 mark): http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/money-power-wall-street/#b

 

[JTsyo]

I read on CNN an Irish betting place was already paying off bets for an Obama win.

 

[hal2kilo]

Now if the general population would just figure out that formula.

Funny, I forced myself to watch FOX NEWS WATCH on Sunday and they pretty much have formulated the fallback message for the Romney fail. OH guess what? The fix for Obama was in with the MSM. I was shocked. D:

 

[Phokus]

You have no idea what liberal bias is, do you?

Stephen Colbert says it's reality. I think he's right.

 

[nageov3t]

I'm so fucking sick of Nate Silver, I almost want Obama to lose just to spite him at this point.

 

[buckshot24]

I'm so fucking sick of Nate Silver, I almost want Obama to lose just to spite him at this point.

He's going to get exposed tonight.

 

[lotus503]

He's going to get exposed tonight.

I was on RCP creating my own Map, I gave Mitt states he wont win and still only got to 261 vs 277 for Obama.

Some mountains are in fact high enough.

 

[buckshot24]

I was on RCP creating my own Map, I gave Mitt states he wont win and still only got to 261 vs 277 for Obama.

Some mountains are in fact high enough.

What states?

 

[lotus503]

what states?

nh, va, co