$35,000 Tesla Model III Is Coming In 2017

[tweakmonkey]

I think widespread adoption will take place once there is a clear winner for DC fast charging. Looks like Chademo may be going out of favor for CCS? If tesla can't get another major car co use use the supercharger network i think it's doomed. VW wants to start putting charging stations at walmart. Have some crazy plan of 2000 charging stations built or under construction by the end of 2019. That would be what? 50% bigger than the supercharger network now?

After watching rich rebuilds on YT, i'm not sure i'd ever want a Tesla. Doing some crappy stuff with replacement parts and salvaged vehicles. I'm surprised they haven't had some lawsuits yet.

I'm excited about all of this. The Electrify America project says it's currently building 484 new charging sites with 2000 chargers by the end of 2019. For comparison the Tesla supercharger network had 1000 stations and 7000 chargers (in 2017! - currently it's 1255 stations with 9955 chargers), and they're building more rapidly. But that's worldwide - I can't find USA-only stats. Tesla's burn rate is definitely affected by this mass roll out of chargers and they're jumping feet first into the infrastructure.

I think it's yet another UPSIDE for Tesla owners though. With so many chargers and stations dedicated to your brand, you're MUCH more likely to have a reliable & available charging port at your destination or rest stop. If the standard changes or Teslas have some adapter for CCS/DC (not sure, I'm ignorant of the possibilities), then they could possibly adapt their stations for those instead?

Either way it's good news. And the competitors, Nissan/VW/Jaguar/Porsche are all pushing these standards and public chargers as well. I'd still be afraid to take a 500+ mile trip in a Bolt, even being in California... there are so few fast stations. You'd have to park the car overnight or for an 2+hr charging session.

Also I don't think Tesla's going to win this. But they do have a big advantage for road trippers. That's all I was saying here.

 

[drnickriviera]

I will agree with that. I think Tesla will have to install CCS chargers and start charging $$ if no one adopts it. Which i don't think anyone is even talking to them about it? I think we will see more AC charging stations popping up. Any place with a RV hookup will probably have 240v 50a services. Visit a state park, charge for an hour, add 20-30 miles of range. Go to the grocery store, give you a credit on charging if you buy $X of food. Restaurants. Heck why can't we have nice stops on the interstate/highways where you can stop for an hour, take a break, get a good meal? We always seem to be go, go, go here.

Going to be good times for EVs in the coming years. My brother picked up a dirt cheap Leaf24 a couple months ago. I'm pretty impressed with it, and that's the smallest battery and weakest motor you can get. Lot of friends and neighbors have never seen an EV and know nothing about them. Going to take a while to trickle down to the masses.

 

[Kaido]

On a tangent, bit of a higher-level discussion - I know a lot of people complain about self-driving cars taking away driving freedom & all that, but the safety aspect is extremely appealing. My friend just totaled his car (non-Tesla, just a regular ICE sedan) this past week because he fell asleep at the wheel. He has a new baby who is up all night & works 3 jobs (day shift, night shift, and weekends) and simply doesn't get a lot of sleep, but does what he has to do to survive & provide for his family, and that's the reality of his current situation. Anyway, the point here is that he fell asleep on the highway & bounced across three or four lanes of traffic a couple times. Fortunately he didn't hit anybody else & made it out alive, but it was just one of those momentary human failures where he zonked out while driving & could have died. Situations like this are where self-driving cars would be just phenomenal. I was just reading a thread on reddit the other day where a guy in a Tesla on Autopilot did exactly that...fell asleep & woke up on a different road, but the car hasn't crashed thanks to the self-driving features. Life happens. Accidents happens. I don't think self-driving cars can come fast enough, and I hope that they quickly become affordable to the people who often really need them. I also know plenty of elderly people who drive & absolutely shouldn't be driving, but they have no other choice if they want to survive. My friend almost died because of a simple mistake, and the technology to prevent that from happening is almost within reach, and I think that's pretty dang cool.

 

[ponyo]

People talk about the upcoming competition electric cars and how that will spell trouble for Tesla. I think it will be the complete opposite. I think the arrival of competition EV will only secure and validate the huge lead of Tesla and make them even more popular. I just can't see regular car companies being able to match Tesla software and autopilot techs. Plus their battery manufacturing lead and the huge number of Supercharger stations. Future is going to be Tesla. When I look out 10-20 years into the future, I see Tesla everywhere in my vision.

I really think companies like BMW and Mercedes are in huge trouble but they just don't know it yet. They're going to be like Nokia of the auto world.

 

[Kaido]

People talk about the upcoming competition electric cars and how that will spell trouble for Tesla. I think it will be the complete opposite. I think the arrival of competition EV will only secure and validate the huge lead of Tesla and make them even more popular. I just can't see regular car companies being able to match Tesla software and autopilot techs. Plus their battery manufacturing lead and the huge number of Supercharger stations. Future is going to be Tesla. When I look out 10-20 years into the future, I see Tesla everywhere in my vision.

I really think companies like BMW and Mercedes are in huge trouble but they just don't know it yet. They're going to be like Nokia of the auto world.

Same, especially with the first pass of Autopilot due out this August. They have an existing hi-speed charging network (currently 1,261 Supercharger Stations with 10,021 Superchargers, just in North America), they have billions of miles of data, they have their own battery plant(s), the Model 3 is already 95% automated & is currently pumping out 3,500 units a week (including the very first AWD Performance model this past week!), they actively push out updates (like the braking fix in the Model 3)...last time I took the Chevy Bolt out for a test-drive, it didn't even have TACC. Great car, but dollar for dollar, I'd be happier buying a cooler-looking Tesla with Autopilot. Improvements look to be coming to the S/X (battery life, interior color options, etc.), semi-truck is coming out (which imo will be a HUGE gamechanger), Model Y is coming out, eventually a Tesla pickup truck, plus solar roof tiles, rockets, underground tunnels for cars, etc. The future is bright, invest in Tesla stock now! lol.

Although, I don't think stuff like BMW or Mercedes will over go out of style. There's a lot of brand loyalty there & brand strength, and they're already working on a lot of hybrids & electrics. They may be able to shortcut the self-driving thing if somebody like Apple releases Titan for the industry at large. Also, not gonna lie, an awesome engine just feels good. My buddy was thinking about a Tesla & ended up getting whatever the latest top-of-the-line Camaro model is & it's pretty dang awesome, haha. Engines still push that testosterone button pretty hard!

 

[ponyo]

Same, especially with the first pass of Autopilot due out this August. They have an existing hi-speed charging network (currently 1,261 Supercharger Stations with 10,021 Superchargers, just in North America), they have billions of miles of data, they have their own battery plant(s), the Model 3 is already 95% automated & is currently pumping out 3,500 units a week (including the very first AWD Performance model this past week!), they actively push out updates (like the braking fix in the Model 3)...last time I took the Chevy Bolt out for a test-drive, it didn't even have TACC. Great car, but dollar for dollar, I'd be happier buying a cooler-looking Tesla with Autopilot. Improvements look to be coming to the S/X (battery life, interior color options, etc.), semi-truck is coming out (which imo will be a HUGE gamechanger), Model Y is coming out, eventually a Tesla pickup truck, plus solar roof tiles, rockets, underground tunnels for cars, etc. The future is bright, invest in Tesla stock now! lol.

Although, I don't think stuff like BMW or Mercedes will over go out of style. There's a lot of brand loyalty there & brand strength, and they're already working on a lot of hybrids & electrics. They may be able to shortcut the self-driving thing if somebody like Apple releases Titan for the industry at large. Also, not gonna lie, an awesome engine just feels good. My buddy was thinking about a Tesla & ended up getting whatever the latest top-of-the-line Camaro model is & it's pretty dang awesome, haha. Engines still push that testosterone button pretty hard!

I actually did and bought my first shares about two months ago. And I've been adding here and there during this recent climb. Even though I'm tempted to join the wait list for Model 3, I'm going to hold off as long as possible. My wife is telling me to go ahead and put down the deposit but I don't want to commit since I don't need another car at the moment. But couple years from now, I think I will buy Tesla car. What car that is depends on what cars Tesla have out at that time and how well Tesla stock does.

 

[Kaido]

I actually did and bought my first shares about two months ago. And I've been adding here and there during this recent climb. Even though I'm tempted to join the wait list for Model 3, I'm going to hold off as long as possible. My wife is telling me to go ahead and put down the deposit but I don't want to commit since I don't need another car at the moment. But couple years from now, I think I will buy Tesla car. What car that is depends on what cars Tesla have out at that time and how well Tesla stock does.

I want to hold off for the Model Y. FSD comes out this August & the official Y announcement is mid-March. But ETA is a question mark, and I'd want to wait at least 6 months for them to iron out the bugs anyway, so at the fastest (if released in March, which would be shocking) it really wouldn't even be until the end of 2019, which is a year & a half away, at minimum - and in reality, probably closer to 2.5 years away.

 

[JEDI]

I want to hold off for the Model Y. FSD comes out this August & the official Y announcement is mid-March. But ETA is a question mark, and I'd want to wait at least 6 months for them to iron out the bugs anyway, so at the fastest (if released in March, which would be shocking) it really wouldn't even be until the end of 2019, which is a year & a half away, at minimum - and in reality, probably closer to 2.5 years away.

so models S,E,X,Y

lol.. Musk has a sense of humor

 

[jason166]

I want to hold off for the Model Y. FSD comes out this August & the official Y announcement is mid-March. But ETA is a question mark, and I'd want to wait at least 6 months for them to iron out the bugs anyway, so at the fastest (if released in March, which would be shocking) it really wouldn't even be until the end of 2019, which is a year & a half away, at minimum - and in reality, probably closer to 2.5 years away.

Model S owner and Tesla fan here. I think you will be disappointed if you believe "FSD comes out this August". Let me try to let you down softly

Elon time is a thing. If he says August, this is likely a very aggressive timeline. First, I'd be surprised if anything is released in August (3 Months maybe, 6 Months definitely).

Also this information was from a tweet where Elon was talking about the first FSD Features (Something to differentiate FSD vs EAP). This does not imply a complete functioning full self-driving (bit of a misnomer). I expect that there will be some feature added that only the people who paid the extra 3000 for FSD package will be able to use. This feature will also be something that requires no regulatory approval. So possibly enhanced summon that's only usable on private property.

 

[JEDI]

On a tangent, bit of a higher-level discussion - I know a lot of people complain about self-driving cars taking away driving freedom & all that, but the safety aspect is extremely appealing. My friend just totaled his car (non-Tesla, just a regular ICE sedan) this past week because he fell asleep at the wheel. He has a new baby who is up all night & works 3 jobs (day shift, night shift, and weekends) and simply doesn't get a lot of sleep, but does what he has to do to survive & provide for his family, and that's the reality of his current situation. Anyway, the point here is that he fell asleep on the highway & bounced across three or four lanes of traffic a couple times. Fortunately he didn't hit anybody else & made it out alive, but it was just one of those momentary human failures where he zonked out while driving & could have died. Situations like this are where self-driving cars would be just phenomenal. I was just reading a thread on reddit the other day where a guy in a Tesla on Autopilot did exactly that...fell asleep & woke up on a different road, but the car hasn't crashed thanks to the self-driving features. Life happens. Accidents happens. I don't think self-driving cars can come fast enough, and I hope that they quickly become affordable to the people who often really need them. I also know plenty of elderly people who drive & absolutely shouldn't be driving, but they have no other choice if they want to survive. My friend almost died because of a simple mistake, and the technology to prevent that from happening is almost within reach, and I think that's pretty dang cool.

you don't need autopilot to prevent that.
lane assist is available for a lot of high end cars now.

if you don't signal and try to change lanes, the car wont let you without a greater deal of force. (ie: try changing lanes w/o power steering)

plus the steering wheel would vibrate.

at least in a friends $80k Audi Q7

 

[NutBucket]

Counterpoint would be the Tesla that hit a stationary barrier on the freeway in broad daylight. Sorry, I'll take my chances...and I admit to having dozed off behind the wheel.

 

[monkeydelmagico]

Got a grand? Well the cash burning engine that is Tesla will now let you play with it's Model 3 configurator. STILL no entry-level $35,000 Model 3. Sorry cheapskates.

Have these folks got cojones or what? It takes a certain kind of special to figure out how to fleece even more people on this scheme. Have all the folks who already put $1000.- down and been waiting for months, or even a year, gotten their cars yet? What kind of fool would fall for this?

Quit playing scuba diver there Easily Distracted Elon. Concentrate. Finally meeting your production goal by skipping a bunch of QC isn't a long term strategy. It appears Mr. Musky has learned nothing from the investor's teleconference backlash.

FWIW, I had high hopes at first about this company and it's founder. Very disappointing.

 

[Kaido]

Got a grand? Well the cash burning engine that is Tesla will now let you play with it's Model 3 configurator. STILL no entry-level $35,000 Model 3. Sorry cheapskates.

Have these folks got cojones or what? It takes a certain kind of special to figure out how to fleece even more people on this scheme. Have all the folks who already put $1000.- down and been waiting for months, or even a year, gotten their cars yet? What kind of fool would fall for this?

I don't see any problem with this. People who put their money down knew that the delivery date was variable.

Personally, I'd much rather wait & pay $35k for a Model III with future self-driving options than a $35k Bolt with similar EV range that doesn't even have TACC available, let alone LKAS or LSF.

 

[Kaido]

Counterpoint would be the Tesla that hit a stationary barrier on the freeway in broad daylight. Sorry, I'll take my chances...and I admit to having dozed off behind the wheel.

Yeah, I am very interested in a Model 3, but I am going to hold off & wait for the Model Y (crossover) & let them spend a couple more years working out the self-driving kinks before I get behind the wheel of one.

 

[Pantoot]

Counterpoint would be the Tesla that hit a stationary barrier on the freeway in broad daylight. Sorry, I'll take my chances...and I admit to having dozed off behind the wheel.

True, I feel the same way about seat belts. Remember that guy that drowned cause he couldn't get out? I will take my chances.

I don't see what the uproar about opening the configurator up to everyone is about. Seems like anyone plunking down money at this point would at least want to see what the final cost might be.
They do need to stop charging for the full self driving though (and refund everyone who paid.) Especially people that leased and paid for the V2 autopilot FSD. They got (and continue to get) royally screwed.

 

[NutBucket]

Huh? autopilot is not a safety feature.....

 

[Kaido]

True, I feel the same way about seat belts. Remember that guy that drowned cause he couldn't get out? I will take my chances.

I don't see what the uproar about opening the configurator up to everyone is about. Seems like anyone plunking down money at this point would at least want to see what the final cost might be.
They do need to stop charging for the full self driving though (and refund everyone who paid.) Especially people that leased and paid for the V2 autopilot FSD. They got (and continue to get) royally screwed.

FSD rolls out next month:

https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/11/17449076/tesla-autopilot-full-self-driving-elon-musk

 

[Kaido]

Huh? autopilot is not a safety feature.....

It's sold as such:

https://tesla.com/autopilot

All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver.

Full Self-Driving Capability

Build upon Enhanced Autopilot and order Full Self-Driving Capability on your Tesla. This doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver.

Standard Safety Features

These active safety technologies, including collision avoidance and automatic emergency braking, have begun rolling out through over-the-air updates

 

[NutBucket]

What's the difference between collision avoidance and auto braking? Serious question since lots of cars have auto braking. I have nothing against those systems because ultimately it's a backup in case I mess up.

 

[Kaido]

What's the difference between collision avoidance and auto braking? Serious question since lots of cars have auto braking. I have nothing against those systems because ultimately it's a backup in case I mess up.

It's different (and better) for a few reasons, including:

1. Tesla has advanced AEB, which can see a couple cars ahead thanks to the radar: (basically like a thru-car xray system)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cG3Jp5GyPoc

2. The sensors do more than just look at what's in front of the car; it's got a basic AI for determining accident factors:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DuIrjRAzNPQ

That translates out to accident warnings & active collision-avoidance with lane-switching features (including side-collision detection). Watch the white utility truck on the left:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=9I5rraWJq6E

3. I've read that the newer models have rear collision warning, and I'd imagine they'll get automatic rear collision avoidance when those cameras get enabled with FSD, especially with how quickly the car can accelerate to outrun a potential rear-end collision:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRR31NaXoVw

The biggest problem right now is allowing the human driver & autopilot system to mix. I think FSD will greatly enhance safety & will get better and better over time as the system improves. Still has a long way to go, but I'm glad people are working on it! Tough problem to solve.

 

[Pantoot]

FSD rolls out next month:

https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/11/17449076/tesla-autopilot-full-self-driving-elon-musk

I really want to believe, but...
Want to guess how much of the second paragraph my AP1 cars will (ever) do?
(From tesla.com in 2015.)

 

[manly]

I don't see any problem with this. People who put their money down knew that the delivery date was variable.

Problem is that they've made a mockery of the reservation system. Many people have waited over 2 years, and now if you have deep pockets for a performance version, you might be able to shoot up near the front of the list and get yours sooner rather than later.

It's been reported elsewhere that customers who aren't financing (i.e. paying cash) have gotten immediate gratification. This happened with one of my friends. Although he bought a RWD version (well-optioned) which isn't necessarily at the top of Tesla's production list, they got delivery within 2 weeks flat. Now perhaps he was near the top of the list anyway, but this seems a little too coincidental.

We all understand there is geographical prioritization at hand (i.e. no exports). We understand you have no chance of getting a base model $35k delivery this calendar year. Although supposedly they are still using the reservations list to determine final delivery time, how does anyone believe them? For whatever reasons, they are clearly making a cash play now. This has been widely reported as Elon Musk's drive to hit a net profit for Q3, but it seems like it goes beyond that. This is just my un-professional opinion but it seems like they are pulling out all the stops to avoid having another round of capital raising in 2018. Throw in the fact that they laid off 11% of their workforce a month ago, and it all ties together IMO.

I have no proof that Tesla has abandoned its 450k strong reservations list. Let's imagine that half of that were reservations in USA/Canada. Why didn't Tesla open up configuration/ordering for 25k at a time? If they are playing fair, the outcome would be the same either way. A certain number of customers would order a buildable config, Tesla would fulfill those orders, and they would continue to send out invitations on a rolling basis to keep the pipeline churning. The obvious reason to open up orders for all 200+k wait listers is so they can cherry pick production to optimize profit.

Finally, all this is a moot point if they don't continue to ramp up production within the next few quarters anyway.

Also, I'd be shocked if they released FSD (way) before Waymo does.

 

[Kaido]

I really want to believe, but...
Want to guess how much of the second paragraph my AP1 cars will (ever) do?
(From tesla.com in 2015.)

Personally, I would only buy a car that banks on the available features as of today. I'm still dealing with bugs in my Jeep Renegade on the supposedly already-available features! Haha. I love Musk, but he has a history of making promises & then overshooting delivery times. Did they ever promise that AP1 would have FSD capabilities? From what I understand, AP1 hardware doesn't have what's required to to FSD, correct?

 

[Kaido]

Problem is that they've made a mockery of the reservation system. Many people have waited over 2 years, and now if you have deep pockets for a performance version, you might be able to shoot up near the front of the list and get yours sooner rather than later.

It's very offensive. I pre-ordered the Oculus Rift VR headset back in like 2016; I got an email in May that my order (from 6 months prior) was delayed until June, and that day, I read that headsets were now available for direct purchase on Amazon. So they had the nerve to make them available to the masses before they shipped out all of their pre-orders. I understand the business reasons for doing it, but it felt like a slap in the face, having put my money down half a year prior so that I could lock my place in for early delivery, and then they tell me my order is delayed, and yet I can get it shipped free in 2 days off Prime if I ordered that same day. Travesty! I ended up canceling my order & went with their competitor (HTC Vive) & have been very happy with it (especially because it turned out to be a better system, haha). Granted, with Tesla, there was no clearly-defined delivery date, but still, I can feel their pain.

It's been reported elsewhere that customers who aren't financing (i.e. paying cash) have gotten immediate gratification. This happened with one of my friends. Although he bought a RWD version (well-optioned) which isn't necessarily at the top of Tesla's production list, they got delivery within 2 weeks flat. Now perhaps he was near the top of the list anyway, but this seems a little too coincidental.

I'd imagine this is true. It would make sense from a business perspective...plenty of people out there with cash to burn who want the latest toy & are willing to fully fund it up-front.

We all understand there is geographical prioritization at hand (i.e. no exports). We understand you have no chance of getting a base model $35k delivery this calendar year. Although supposedly they are still using the reservations list to determine final delivery time, how does anyone believe them? For whatever reasons, they are clearly making a cash play now. This has been widely reported as Elon Musk's drive to hit a net profit for Q3, but it seems like it goes beyond that. This is just my un-professional opinion but it seems like they are pulling out all the stops to avoid having another round of capital raising in 2018. Throw in the fact that they laid off 11% of their workforce a month ago, and it all ties together IMO.

Yeah, they have to do what's best for the business, which means raking in cash so they can get over their production hump. One of my friends specifically put the reservation fee down on pre-order day (a couple years ago now?) for the $35k base model, and is still waiting for his car. He doesn't want FSD or AWD or the long-range battery, as he has an 80-mile EV now, he just likes the aesthetics & wants the base model as an upgrade over his current electric car. So he's stuck waiting probably until 2019 to get his base model, even though he was one of the early reservation holders.

Finally, all this is a moot point if they don't continue to ramp up production within the next few quarters anyway.

Yeah, I'd imagine they'll get to full production capacity by EOY. Personally, I want a compact Model Y SUV with FSD, but I'd imagine that's at least two years away (official announcement for the MY is in March of 2019), and I definitely don't want an early Model 3 while they're rushing to get things out the door, nor do I want to beta-test Autopilot (re: slamming into parked vehicles & guardrails & gore points, which results in hurting & killing people). Plus the smart air suspension option supposedly comes out next year for the Model 3, so I'm curious to see how goes.

Also, I'd be shocked if they released FSD (way) before Waymo does.

I'm very interested to see what they actually release in August. Musk's tweet on FSD in August ("With V9, we will begin to enable full self-driving features") can be interpreted as pretty vague, and really, FSD would be an enormous announcement if true, and given that they've had car after car slam into parked vehicles & static road points, I don't know if they're really, truly, actually ready to release FSD yet. As much of a Tesla fanboy as I am, I'm more than happy to let other people do the beta-testing on the AP stuff, lol.

 

[monkeydelmagico]

Problem is that they've made a mockery of the reservation system.

I believe it goes beyond mere mockery into potentially criminal activity. A deposit implies fulfillment within an agreed upon time period. Tesla is testing a legal loophole in consumer protections for auto deposits. When folks try to get their monies back Tesla drags their feet for months. I suspect when cash gets tight the wait period gets longer.