Actually I'm going by what a loan officer told me when her sister-in-law was trying to get help (she dropped out and sold her house, $40/month wasn't going to cut it.)
That's where I got 100% from, your estimates of the remaining half nearly doubling the success rate, which is manifestly true only with a success rate at or near 100% for the remaining half. (An intelligent person would assume that just as more have dropped out than have successfully completed the program to date, so will the numbers of failures be quite high in the future.) If that isn't what you meant, learn to say what you mean.
But to be more precise: Roughly 1,240,000 started the program. Roughly 436,000 have dropped out and 340,000 have successfully completed the program, leaving roughly 464,000 still in process. To double the number of those successfully completing the program, you need a success rate of 73.3%. True, that's not 100%, but it's far larger than the 43.8% of those leaving the program successfully to date.
And as the article states, "the majority" of those who "successfully" complete the program are still expected to lose their homes. If this is even partially true then even a magical 100% program success rate will result in far more than $220,000 per mortgage saved. But then I suppose if you find a failure rate of more than a third to be a good thing, then the ultimate failure rate will be a truly great thing.
Are you for reals?
Yeah I am. I want to know why rewarding failure is a good idea.
I wasn't talking about you, and in case you weren't paying attention, I'm arguing against rewarding failure. If you signed a contract and can afford to meet your contractual obligations, then in my deeply-held personal moral and ethical opinion, you should not fail to do so.
Um, no. My neighbor applied to HAMP because she could not make her payments after her divorce. Her adjustment came to roughly $40 per month - not a significant amount. She dropped out. Her sister-in-law, who is a loan officer in another state, told her the reason the banks (including hers) were pushing this program was because the refi loan offered was fully guaranteed by the federal government (meaning us.) She also said many banks (especially Bank of America) were doing refi's knowing the mortgage holder could not meet the lower payment either - but also knowing that the bank can now foreclose without losing money on the loan. My neighbor sold her home because she could not make the payments and was about to lose it. My position is NOT that it is bad that she didn't get a government handout, my position is that it is a BAD PROGRAM - something the original linked article also stated. Either you have the mental capacity of mold, or you are defending this purely because it's Obama's shit and therefore cannot stink, or you are defending this because it is enriching you personally. I specifically do not rule out all three.In other words, you're saying that some loan officer-you-spoke-with-once's sister-in-law's cousin's uncle's niece applied for HAMP but she already had a payment she could afford so she dropped out and sold the house she could already afford because govt give her a handout? Do I understand you correctly? And your position is that it's a bad thing she didn't get a handout? An example of socialist govt failure even? Really? Wow. You're a moron.
What about the process taking a minimum of longer than 6 months to complete and the program only having been in operation for about 12 months did you fail to understand?
And as HAMP reduces a mortgagor's payment (including principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and even HOA fees, if applicable) to an affordable 31% of their gross income, then yes, I do think that people who refuse to make that payment should lose their homes and that it is a good thing. I don't live rent-free. I doubt you live rent-free. Why are you arguing that these people should? Or do you think we should keep modifying these peoples' loans over and over again until they finally do perform?
I wasn't really attacking you, I just wanted someone to answer the question and you seemed active in the thread.
Your loan officer friend is a fucking moron who doesn't have a fucking clue what she's talking about. Feel free to tell her I said so. How about you come up with a reliable source eh?Um, no. My neighbor applied to HAMP because she could not make her payments after her divorce. Her adjustment came to roughly $40 per month - not a significant amount. She dropped out. Her sister-in-law, who is a loan officer in another state, told her the reason the banks (including hers) were pushing this program was because the refi loan offered was fully guaranteed by the federal government (meaning us.) She also said many banks (especially Bank of America) were doing refi's knowing the mortgage holder could not meet the lower payment either - but also knowing that the bank can now foreclose without losing money on the loan. My neighbor sold her home because she could not make the payments and was about to lose it. My position is NOT that it is bad that she didn't get a government handout, my position is that it is a BAD PROGRAM - something the original linked article also stated. Either you have the mental capacity of mold, or you are defending this purely because it's Obama's shit and therefore cannot stink, or you are defending this because it is enriching you personally. I specifically do not rule out all three.
These programs are propping up your own home values and keeping the economy running. Without them, the entire banking system in this country would have collapsed. Period. Financing would have disappeared and homes all across the country would be worth nothing more than what a cash buyer would be willing to be pay for them. Period.
Ignorance fail.
First, your 340k mortgages figure is willfully dishonest. With more than that number still in the lengthy process, the actual number of mortgages "saved" will be nearly double that.
Second, you seem to not realize the magnitude of the problem. $220k loss severity is practically average. Contrary to this "poor peeples caused the problem" mentality spread by idiots on the internet, it's the upper middle value properties causing the most losses. Brand new 3500 sq ft homes in suburban developments in California, Nevada, and Arizona. Losses on the majority of those easily exceed $220k per asset.
Oh, and to add to the whole "poor peeples caused the problem," 31% of all defaults now are strategic, meaning the customer can afford their mortgage and is intentionally walking away because they borrowed too much against their house in the boom and now they're underwater. Better hope they don't live a recourse state. Either way, they won't be buying another home for at least 7 years, unless it's with cash.
These programs are propping up your own home values and keeping the economy running. Without them, the entire banking system in this country would have collapsed. Period. Financing would have disappeared and homes all across the country would be worth nothing more than what a cash buyer would be willing to be pay for them.
The banks weren't pressured, it was their idea in order to accelerate implementation of the plan. Income verification was always required from the beginning, except that early applicants were allowed to state their income in order get them into process. Those customers who misstated their income were later disqualified during the income verification process, required before their mod finalized, because they either lied about their income or failed to provide the required documents.
And just to prove how ignorant you must be about this, making statements like that, I'd like to point out that those customers who misstated their income to qualify for the initial trial ending up making 3-4 trial payments before they were disqualified at the income verification process... and then their home went back into foreclosure.
I never once said that only poor people were causing the problems. I have always (and several times in this thread) maintained that the problem was caused by people borrowing above their means. Whether that means a poor person buying a $200k house or a middle class person buying a $400k house, neither can really afford it except with ridiculous loans made under the assumption that the house is going to continue to increase in value and the borrower will be smart enough to refinance.
The price bubble was caused by developers building bigger and bigger homes and banks willing to loan more money to more people. However, lowering the income floor and attractive a significant number of poor people has certainly contributed (at least in California) to keeping that bubble and home prices extremely large.
Just to prove how ignorant you are, those arent my words, those are directly from the article. Go write some more sub-prime loans.
And why is "market value" for a home a bad thing? Houses are still overpriced. They shouldn't be "propped up". People who have no problem making their mortgage payments aren't going to walk away from their home. That's a shitload of work for someone who's been paying on a mortgage for 10+ years already.
The only people walking away from loans are people who bought houses during the time when housing prices were artificially inflated due to artificially high demand (because of lower qualification requirements for loans). People who bought their homes in the 90s, when prices were mostly in line with market values, are going to continue paying their mortgages. There's no reason for them to walk away.
Yes, it is reasonable to expect your house to increase in value, but in some places in California, the homes more than quadrupled in value in a period of less than 10 years between the late 90s and 2007. That's not natural market growth. That's unnatural price inflation caused by there being more people "able" to buy houses.
I can tell you sure as shit that neighborhoods weren't getting any better. In fact, neighborhoods are steadily increasing in niceness now that all of the subprime borrowers are leaving.
In short, I don't buy in to the idea that if housing prices don't stay artificially "propped up" that the entire banking industry would collapse. On the contrary, if prices were to fall back to where the market could actually sustain them, banks would make more money because they would not constantly be dealing with forclosure and wasting manpower on "modifications".
-snip-
Of those who "dropped out" of the program (as you put it), they primarily fall into 3 groups: (1) those already have an affordable payment less than 31% their gross income, (2) those who cannot afford their home even at its present market value, and (3) those who fail to comply with the program.
To encourage more of those sales, the Obama administration is giving $3,000 for moving expenses to homeowners who complete such a sale or agree to turn over the deed of the property to the lender.
Developers built those homes, and banks made those loans, because borrowers operated under the assumption that home values would increase forever. That developers built bigger homes or that banks were more lenient on income requirements is just a result of that mindset, not the cause. With home values going up, buyers wanted bigger, nicer homes, and were confident that if they couldn't pay for them then they could just sell for a profit. With home values going up, banks were exposed to less risk if the borrower defaulted. And seriously, just because someone puts papers in front of you doesn't mean you have to sign them.
I know it's easy for the populist mindset to blame nebulous 'others' for our woes but the reality is those 'others' are us too. Yes, developers, bankers, and even *gasp* realtors are Americans too. And ironically in this case, some of the first victims of the collapse.
Re: The bolded portion.
Why do you say that?
IMO, the problem with this program is that it doesn't provide for a reduction in the principal amount of the loan for those homes that are underwater because their FMV dropped.
I.e., if you purchased a home for $500k that's now worth $300k what's the point of a reduced interest rate or extended term? You're still paying $500k for a $300k house.
So, it's not about "present market value" as you say. It would be a lot easier to make payments on a $300k loan (the present market value) than a $500k loan.
The program was faulty from it's inception because it did not address the core problem - underwater homes because of the substanial drop in FMV.
The real failure of this program can be seen by the very low participation/interest in by people with mortgage trouble.
I've never heard of this, anybody here familiar with it?
Fern
I have no problem seeing bankers, realtors, and developers as Americans. I have a big problem with programs that purport to be using tax dollars to save homes from foreclosure when in reality they are simply using those tax dollars to prop up banks. Had TARP been used as it was intended - for the federal government to buy up the "toxic assets" and dispose of them at true market value - and had those abusing the system via in-house appraisers been appropriately prosecuted, I'm fine with that. Instead we have programs that obviously do not help the majority of those upside-down or otherwise distressed homeowners, but instead isolate the banks from losing money in foreclosure and pay banks to generate seemingly endless paperwork. There is a big difference between assisting the homeowner about to lose everything (even if through his own stupidity) and helping banks which may well be profitable without the program - there is after all no requirement that the banks be distressed. Those are bad programs and dishonest lawmaking.
Yaknow, what you're saying cool and all... except that you're still attacking the programs for not being socialist ENOUGH. If you're going to attack it for being a "bad program" and socialist, then attack its very existence, not that it doesn't do enough.
And buddy, there have been strict federal laws against in-house appraisers since the 1980s. They have names like FIRREA and USPAP. Once again, you're just making shit up. Granted, relationships between lenders and appraisers may have been occasionally too close during the boom (something that has been corrected now), but there were NEVER "in-house" appraisers.
The irony of what you're saying there is that the valuations for these mods, which you call "true" market value (as though market values don't fluctuate), are FAR more "in-house" than any appraisal done during the boom. For one thing, they're not even appraisals, they're BPO's, which are done by realtors, and usually just exterior drive-by's.
That took about fifteen seconds on Bing. I could choose from dozens of similar stories. This was even covered in Congressional hearings for Christ's sake.Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will no longer buy mortgages from lenders that use in-house appraisers. Many observers believe that the use of independent appraisers -- who don't work for a company that has the goal of making loans --would have resulted in fewer of the ebulliently optimistic appraisals that contributed to a run-up in home prices that was destined to come crashing down.
The move will force lenders like Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) to sell their appraisal operations. The New York Times reported that "As defaults and foreclosures have surged in the last year, regulators and industry analysts have raised pointed questions about the independence of appraisers. Because they rely on banks and brokers to give them additional business, appraisers often feel pressured to value a home at prices that match or exceed loan amounts."
I'm shocked. Shocked I tell you.
possum, what part about "Granted, relationships between lenders and appraisers may have been occasionally too close during the boom (something that has been corrected now), but there were NEVER "in-house" appraisers" did you not understand?
And I noticed you didn't even bother to address this: "The irony of what you're saying there is that the valuations for these mods, which you call "true" market value (as though market values don't fluctuate), are FAR more "in-house" than any appraisal done during the boom. For one thing, they're not even appraisals, they're BPO's, which are done by realtors, and usually just exterior drive-by's."
For goodness sake, read the quotes. If Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announce that they will no longer buy loans from lenders with in-house appraisers, obviously they were buying loans from lenders with in-house appraisers. Notice they did not announce they were no longer buying loans from flying monkeys or talking rocks. If lenders like Countrywide must now sell their in-house appraisal units, obviously they HAD in-house appraisal units. Can't force a company to sell off what it never had.
I didn't address your second point because it supports my point that this is a bad bill which does not do what it is supposedly designed to do, should never have been started, and should be ended. And no, I am not arguing that it should be more socialist, I'm arguing that it should go away. Whether another program should be started that is even more socialist and might actually do what this bill is touted to do is a different question.