270 to win: What's your map?

[Indus]

http://www.270towin.com/

Choose your states for 2016, click share map and copy paste the link.

 

[pcgeek11]

Too early to tell anything.

 

[Meghan54]

Too early to tell anything.

Not that early to tell a few things. You can pretty much count on the 11 states that made up the Confederacy to be Republican (except VA), along with the MidWest. You can pretty much count the Northeast and West Coast going Democratic.

So, as typical, it'll come down to a few swing states.

 

[FerrelGeek]

Not that early to tell a few things. You can pretty much count on the 11 states that made up the Confederacy to be Republican (except VA), along with the MidWest. You can pretty much count the Northeast and West Coast going Democratic.

So, as typical, it'll come down to a few swing states.

/thread

 

[Meghan54]

Well, there is the remote possibility that one party or the other nominates a candidate that, like Goldwater, is so polarizing and out of touch with moderate Americans that that candidate fails to carry the predicted states.

 

[nickqt]

The Republican party is going to have a very difficult time getting to 270 electoral votes.

The Republican party has won the popular vote exactly two (2) times since 1988.

Yes, you've read that last sentence correctly.

 

[feralkid]

Rick Perry; all 50 states.

 

[Meghan54]

Rick Perry; all 50 states.

I think it'd be the first time someone lost every state in the union. Hell, Goldwater managed to at least carry the deep South and AZ.

 

[Darwin333]

Just curious but is it mathematically possible to have a tie and if such an event happened what then?

 

[Indus]

Just curious but is it mathematically possible to have a tie and if such an event happened what then?

It's happened before, well not really a tie but no candidate had enought electoral votes. If that happens the house of representatives votes who they want as President. In the case I'm talking about, it was the Election of 1824.

Back then 131 Electoral Votes were needed to win but Andrew Jackson only got 99 with 41.4% of the popular vote, John Q. Adams got 84 with 30.9% of the vote, William Crawford got 41 electoral votes and Henry Clay got 37.

Andrew Jackson received more electoral and popular votes than any other candidate, but not the majority of 131 electoral votes needed to win the election. Since no candidate received a majority of the electoral votes, the presidential election was thrown into the U.S. House of Representatives.

Following the provisions of the Twelfth Amendment, only the top three candidates in the electoral vote were admitted as candidates: Andrew Jackson, John Quincy Adams, and William Harris Crawford. Henry Clay, who happened to be Speaker of the House at the time, was left out. Clay detested Jackson, so Clay threw his support to Adams. Thus Adams was elected President on February 9, 1825.

However the country was so deeply divided over this, that in the presidential election of 1828 and 1832 Andrew Jackson won convincingly 178-83 and 219-49.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Here's my take on it:

http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_predictions.php?mapid=bLxi

In my mind, Florida, Virginia, and Ohio were up in the air. I'm guessing that with growing minority populations that Florida and Virginia would end up going for the Democrats. In the past Ohio has sometimes gone Republican, so I figured they'd go Republican again.

 

[Indus]

Here's an interesting metric graph based on the last 6 elections.

State Red/ Blue
AL Red
AK Red
AZ 5 Red
AR 4 Red
CA Blue
CO Even 3
CT Blue
DE Blue
FL Even 3
GA 5 Red
HI Blue
ID Red
IL Blue
IN 5 Red
IO 5 Blue
KS Red
KY 4 Red
LA 4 Red
ME Blue
MD Blue
MA Blue
MI Blue
MN Blue
MS Red
MO 4 Red
MT 5 Red
NE Red
NV 4 Blue
NH 5 Blue
NJ Blue
NM 5 Blue
NY Blue
NC 5 Red
ND Red
OH 4 Blue
OK Red
OR Blue
PA Blue
RI Blue
SC Red
SD Red
TN 4 Red
TX Red
UT Red
VT Blue
VA 4 Red
WA Blue
WV 4 Red
WI Blue
WY Red
DC Blue

If you count all the solid blue and almost solid (voted 5 times for the same party), then the votes already set are: http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_predictions.php?mapid=bLzW

257 Blue
153 Red

Usually there aren't surprises unless there are major things at work like financial meltdown or 9/11 so will be interesting to see how they make the math work.

 

[TheSlamma]

Bummer the choices are only Red and Blue

 

[dank69]

Here's an interesting metric graph based on the last 6 elections.

...

If you count all the solid blue and almost solid (voted 5 times for the same party), then the votes already set are: http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_predictions.php?mapid=bLzW

257 Blue
153 Red

Usually there aren't surprises unless there are major things at work like financial meltdown or 9/11 so will be interesting to see how they make the math work.

Even if you only count states that went blue all 6 times and then give red all the states that went red at least 4 times you get 242 Blue and 208 Red

 

[soulcougher73]

Not that early to tell a few things. You can pretty much count on the 11 states that made up the Confederacy to be Republican (except VA), along with the MidWest. You can pretty much count the Northeast and West Coast going Democratic.

So, as typical, it'll come down to a few swing states.

This. Thus why the system sucks. Letting a handful of states matter and then rest can suck a D. 100% straight popular vote will end the pandering to a few states and allow more people to want to vote depending where the currently live.

 

[Indus]

This. Thus why the system sucks. Letting a handful of states matter and then rest can suck a D. 100% straight popular vote will end the pandering to a few states and allow more people to want to vote depending where the currently live.

I'd be for it as I don't want Bush v. Gore again, but there is no way the red states would stand for it.

 

[Moonbeam]

Bummer the choices are only Red and Blue

No the bummer is that they CAN only be red and blue. The only way except via revolution to change that is a Constitutional convention which ain't happening either unless somebody starts a wakeup call.

 

[norseamd]

Not that early to tell a few things. You can pretty much count on the 11 states that made up the Confederacy to be Republican (except VA), along with the MidWest. You can pretty much count the Northeast and West Coast going Democratic.

So, as typical, it'll come down to a few swing states.

Did you even take a look at the standard map? Lots of the Midwest is actually Democrat.