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2016 Republican/Democrat Super Tuesday

N

nageov3t

Lifer
just thought it would be helpful to create a thread!

latest polls for the Super Tuesday states:

March 1 Republican Primaries and Caucuses
Virginia (49 Delegates): Trump 36.8% | Rubio: 22.3% | Cruz: 17.5%
Texas (172 Delegates): Cruz: 36.2% | Trump: 26.6% | Rubio: 19.2%
Georgia (76 Delegates): Trump 36.2% | Rubio: 21.8% | Cruz: 21.4
Massachusetts (42 Delegates): Trump: 44.3% | Rubio: 18.3% | Kasich: 16.3%
Oklahoma (43 Delegates): Trump: 29.5% | Cruz: 22.5 | Rubio: 21.0%
Alabama (50 Delegates): Trump: 36.0% | Rubio: 21.0% | Cruz: 14.0%
Tennessee (58 Delegates): Trump: 40% | Cruz: 22% | Rubio: 19%
Arkansas (40 Delegates): Cruz: 27% | Trump: 23 | Rubio: 23%
Vermont (16 Delegates): Trump: 32% | Rubio: 17% | Cruz: 11%
Minnesota (38 Delegates): Rubio: 23% | Cruz: 21% | Trump: 18%
Colorado (37 Delegates): Carson: 25% | Rubio: 19% | Trump: 17%​
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/march1GOP.html

March 1 Democratic Primaries and Caucuses
Virginia (110 Delegates): Clinton: 55.4% | Sanders: 35.8%
Massachusetts (116 Delegates): Clinton: 46.8 | Sanders: 45.3%
Texas (252 Delegates): Clinton: 61.1% | Sanders: 33.1%
Georgia (116 Delegates): Clinton: 63.0% | Sanders: 28.2%
Vermont (26 Delegates): Sanders: 84.5% | Clinton: 9.5%
Tennessee (76 Delegates): Clinton: 59.0% | Sanders: 33.0%
Arkansas (37 Delegates): Clinton: 57.0% | Sanders: 28.5%
Oklahoma (42 Delegates): Clinton: 45.0% | Sanders: 36.0%
Minnesota (93 Delegates): Clinton: 59% | Sanders: 25%
Colorado (79 Delegates): Clinton: 55% | Sanders: 27%
Alabama (60 Deleagtes): Clinton: 59% | Sanders: 31%​
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/march1dem.html

some of these are obviously old, like the Colorado poll showing Carson ahead. here are 538/Nate Silver's winner predictions:

Alabama: Trump: 77%
Arkansas: Clinton: 98%
Georgia: Trump: 76% | Clinton: 99%
Massachusetts: Trump: 95% | Clinton: 87%
Oklahoma: Trump: 49% | Sanders 83%
Tennessee: Trump: 40% | Clinton: 99%
Texas: Cruz: 84% | Clinton: 99%
Vermont: Sanders: 99%
Virginia: Trump: 72% | Clinton: 99%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/ (note that there are the chances each person has of winning, not the percentage they'll win with)
 
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Well, looks like Trump and Clinton will win the majority of the delegates. Can't Stump the Trump, Can't...Fillary the Hillary?
 
I think Bernie probably wins, or at least makes it a close race, in Massachusetts, Colorado, and Minnesota, but ultimately Clinton walks away with a commanding delegate lead thanks to blow-out victories across all the Southern states and comfortable wins in Virginia and Texas.
 
blake0812 said:
Well, looks like Trump and Clinton will win the majority of the delegates. Can't Stump the Trump, Can't...Fillary the Hillary?
Click to expand...

Either way, Corporate America wins.

IMO, with the aforementioned being the case, Repubs should welcome that thought as a half-ass win of sorts being that Hillary is going to pull the Dem Party further right than Obama ever wanted to.

She is in effect, the compromise pick where everybody gains and loses as much as the next guy.

edit - And Trump, being the guy that wants EVERYBODY to love and worship him, will throw a couple of bones or more the liberal's way in order to be The Man of The Century.

But it's their Supreme Court picks that will for the most differentiate the two.
 
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When do you think Sanders will drop out? At this point it is pretty obvious Hillary is going to be nominated.

Not so sure about Trump, they are working real hard to get Robot Rubio as the nominee, never underestimate the power of the establishment.
 
Hugo Drax said:
When do you think Sanders will drop out? At this point it is pretty obvious Hillary is going to be nominated.

Not so sure about Trump, they are working real hard to get Robot Rubio as the nominee, never underestimate the power of the establishment.
Click to expand...

if his fundraising holds up (and he just announced that they raised 36 million in February), I could see him campaigning all the way to the convention.

that said, if he doesn't win at least 3 of the 4 favorable states to him tomorrow (Colorado, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Minnesota), he's probably got no realistic path short of Clinton having legal/health issues.

Nate Silver pointed out a number of states later in the race that would be favorable to him, but it presupposes that his polling numbers wouldn't go down after a string of high-profile losses.

Bernie Sanders Doesn’t Need Momentum — He Needs To Win These States


Our benchmarks suggest that Sanders ought to win Vermont, Minnesota, Colorado, Massachusetts, Oklahoma and Tennessee to be on track for the nomination. Sanders is going to rout Clinton in Vermont, of course; he’s also slightly ahead in Massachusetts polls, although not by as much as our targets say he “should” be. There hasn’t been enough recent polling in Colorado or Minnesota for us to make forecasts of the caucuses there, but we’d probably consider Sanders the favorite in those states also.

Sanders trails in polls of Oklahoma (narrowly) and Tennessee (badly), however, when he probably needs to win those states too. Meanwhile, he’s losing states such as Georgia by a wider margin than our benchmarks suggest he can afford. The Democrats’ delegate allocation is quite proportional, so these margins matter; underperforming his targets on Super Tuesday would mean that Sanders would have to make up more ground later on with less time left on the clock.
Click to expand...
 
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The interesting contests to me will be Arkansas, Colorado, and Minnesota. These are the ones where either Cruz or Rubio is likely to win by a hair. One of the two of them needs to drop out very soon or Trump will win the nomination.

Cruz is likely to win Texas, but that doesn't really tell us much. If Cruz sweeps the close states, then I think Rubio has to go and Cruz will a shot of beating Trump (a long shot for sure, but at least there is a shot). But if Rubio sweeps them, then both Cruz and Rubio will think they belong in the race. I think that will be a prolonged battle and Trump will sail into victory.

The Democrat side looks like a Clinton lock unless something surprising happens. So, I'm not too interested in those races.
 
Polls have Carson in the lead in Colorado??

Pot is legal in Colorado.
Just sayin'.

Hmmm, no, there might be a correlation there.
 
DrPizza said:
Polls have Carson in the lead in Colorado??

Pot is legal in Colorado.
Just sayin'.

Hmmm, no, there might be a correlation there.
Click to expand...
I get your joke. But the only Colorado poll was in November when Carson had his 15 minutes of fame.
 
dullard said:
The interesting contests to me will be Arkansas, Colorado, and Minnesota. These are the ones where either Cruz or Rubio is likely to win by a hair. One of the two of them needs to drop out very soon or Trump will win the nomination.

Cruz is likely to win Texas, but that doesn't really tell us much. If Cruz sweeps the close states, then I think Rubio has to go and Cruz will a shot of beating Trump (a long shot for sure, but at least there is a shot). But if Rubio sweeps them, then both Cruz and Rubio will think they belong in the race. I think that will be a prolonged battle and Trump will sail into victory.

The Democrat side looks like a Clinton lock unless something surprising happens. So, I'm not too interested in those races.
Click to expand...

I know Rubio and the pundits keep saying it, that if all the votes were only just split between Trump and the robot that Marco would win this, but they're wrong. Trump will get more of Cruz's votes than Rubio will if/when Cruz drops. Look at Texas as an example. Do you think Rubio would win it tomorrow over Trump if Cruz wasn't in this? And that answer holds true for more contests than it doesn't.

And Rubio's not dropping out, the establishment donors have gone all in and it's too late in the race to change horses. The only way to stop Trump is to keep the field crowded, split enough votes to keep anyone (ie: Trump) from getting the 1237 delegates or whatever the magic number is to win outright, and take it from him in a brokered convention.
 
Gonad the Barbarian said:
I know Rubio and the pundits keep saying it, that if all the votes were only just split between Trump and the robot that Marco would win this, but they're wrong. Trump will get more of Cruz's votes than Rubio will if/when Cruz drops. Look at Texas as an example. Do you think Rubio would win it tomorrow over Trump if Cruz wasn't in this? And that answer holds true for more contests than it doesn't.
Click to expand...
Texas poll Feb 26:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/rriczbhib3/TX_ForRelease_20160228.pdf
15. If [First Choice Candidate Name] doesn’t get the nomination, who would most likely be your second choice?​


Marco Rubio . . . . 24%​

Donald Trump . . .16%
Click to expand...

If only Cruz dropped out, then Trump would win in Texas, since his base is bigger than Rubio's there. But if everyone dropped out but Trump and Rubio, then Texas would be a virtual tie race because more people will switch to Rubio than switch to Trump. For every 2 that switch to Trump, 3 switch to Rubio.


So you get Trump = 31% + (2/5 * 50%) = 51% and Rubio = 19% + (3/5 * 50%) = 49%.

With a poll that tight (and lot of assumptions which make the margin of error larger), no one could tell who would win in that case.
 
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loki8481 said:
if his fundraising holds up (and he just announced that they raised 36 million in February), I could see him campaigning all the way to the convention.

that said, if he doesn't win at least 3 of the 4 favorable states to him tomorrow (Colorado, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Minnesota), he's probably got no realistic path short of Clinton having legal/health issues.

Nate Silver pointed out a number of states later in the race that would be favorable to him, but it presupposes that his polling numbers wouldn't go down after a string of high-profile losses.

Bernie Sanders Doesn’t Need Momentum — He Needs To Win These States
Click to expand...

But why? He has a huge mathematical disadvantage with the superdelegates stacked towards clinton and if he loses Super Tuesday I do not see any way he can recover.
 
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