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2016 Electoral Map Prediction

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Atreus21 said:
How it turned out, or almost certainly will given MI and NH vote tallies. I still can't believe Wisconsin went red.

nBpwY.png
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When John King from CNN started showing

1) How heavy turnout was in rural areas
and
2) How bad Clinton's early results were in Michigan and Wisconsin in counties that previously went heavy for Obama

I realized it was basically hopeless. Slept like shit, but went to bed early.
 
Balt said:
When John King from CNN started showing

1) How heavy turnout was in rural areas
and
2) How bad Clinton's early results were in Michigan and Wisconsin in counties that previously went heavy for Obama

I realized it was basically hopeless. Slept like shit, but went to bed early.
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I peeked at my phone occasionally, hoping against hope that somehow it wouldn't happen, but it did.
 
Sheik Yerbouti said:
I peeked at my phone occasionally, hoping against hope that somehow it wouldn't happen, but it did.
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Haha, yeah. I woke up at 2:30am and couldn't resist checking my phone. It still wasn't official by then, but it was almost certain. Had trouble getting back to sleep after that.
 
Balt said:
Haha, yeah. I woke up at 2:30am and couldn't resist checking my phone. It still wasn't official by then, but it was almost certain. Had trouble getting back to sleep after that.
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it was more or less locked in by 10:30 central time, that's when I think I went to bed. Sleep, meh, bed, yea around 10:30
 
First said:
Wait, you still think your "predictions" came true? lol. Data please.



Oh I definitely never said she was likely to get 340. Reread if you're still confused.
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I didn't make any predictions this year. Your prediction was just wrong and all the data I need is that Trump will be sworn in as president.

"Somewhere between Obama's 2012 win and his 2008 win. So about 340 electoral votes and a 4-5pt margin of victory. I think there's a decent shot there's a 2-3 pt polling miss in her favor, which would make her win 6-8 pts nationally and her electoral college win share closer to 370, putting IA and AZ in the bank for her. But I'll just stay with my former prediction for now."

You definitely don't say she is unlikely to get 340.
 
buckshot24 said:
I didn't make any predictions this year.
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Aw, emotionally damaged from your 2012 experience, eh? I remember you not posting for months after that one.

Your prediction was just wrong and all the data I need is that Trump will be sworn in as president.
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Actually I've qualified several times that white voters could win the election for Trump, just didn't think it would happen (oh yeah, neither did you).

"Somewhere between Obama's 2012 win and his 2008 win. So about 340 electoral votes and a 4-5pt margin of victory. I think there's a decent shot there's a 2-3 pt polling miss in her favor, which would make her win 6-8 pts nationally and her electoral college win share closer to 370, putting IA and AZ in the bank for her. But I'll just stay with my former prediction for now."

You definitely don't say she is unlikely to get 340.
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I definitely didn't think she was guaranteed 340, especially after Comey's leak and Wikileaks hurting her margin the last 6 weeks. Obviously that made the difference in the 1% margins in PA, MI & WI.
 
First said:
Aw, emotionally damaged from your 2012 experience, eh? I remember you not posting for months after that one.



Actually I've qualified several times that white voters could win the election for Trump, just didn't think it would happen (oh yeah, neither did you).



I definitely didn't think she was guaranteed 340, especially after Comey's leak and Wikileaks hurting her margin the last 6 weeks. Obviously that made the difference in the 1% margins in PA, MI & WI.
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There were polls after Comey's announcement so that doesn't cut it. Even your beloved Nate Silver gave Trump a much better chance of winning than Romney had but you went with stupid and predicted 340 EC votes.

The fact that she couldn't draw crowds should have given you a hint that people weren't all that geeked to vote for her. Her people didn't turn out, that's why she lost.
 
buckshot24 said:
There were polls after Comey's announcement so that doesn't cut it. Even your beloved Nate Silver gave Trump a much better chance of winning than Romney had but you went with stupid and predicted 340 EC votes.
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Silver had HRC as a 71% favorite kiddo. Also again, you don't stick/make predictions now, presumably after your 2012 drubbing, so honestly who knows (or cares) what you're now saying.

The fact that she couldn't draw crowds should have given you a hint that people weren't all that geeked to vote for her. Her people didn't turn out, that's why she lost.
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Yeah I've always said HRC wasn't a good candidate, news at 11. She lost for tons of reasons, her average turnout just being one of many reasons (structural trade issues disproportionately affecting rust belt states, white resentment, etc.).
 
First said:
Silver had HRC as a 71% favorite kiddo. Also again, you don't stick/make predictions now, presumably after your 2012 drubbing, so honestly who knows (or cares) what you're now saying.



Yeah I've always said HRC wasn't a good candidate, news at 11. She lost for tons of reasons, her average turnout just being one of many reasons (structural trade issues disproportionately affecting rust belt states, white resentment, etc.).
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Keep trying to bring up 2012 when you screwed the pooch this year? Classy.

Silver had Obama at 91% but you still went with a ridiculous 340 EC votes.
 
buckshot24 said:
Keep trying to bring up 2012 when you screwed the pooch this year? Classy.
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There's no comparison; you cited conspiracy shit that year and were wrong, this year you wimped out of making a prediction yet are taking solace that other's prediction like mine were wrong on the electoral college? lol, oh the ironing.

Silver had Obama at 91% but you still went with a ridiculous 340 EC votes.
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The electorate changed after 2012 kiddo, the white share didn't continue declining into 2016, something I fully acknowledged would change the electorate if these white non-voters finally decided to vote.

Come on, this is a big boy conversation and all you brought was an overnight diaper.
 
First said:
There's no comparison; you cited conspiracy shit that year and were wrong, this year you wimped out of making a prediction yet are taking solace that other's prediction like mine were wrong on the electoral college? lol, oh the ironing.



The electorate changed after 2012 kiddo, the white share didn't continue declining into 2016, something I fully acknowledged would change the electorate if these white non-voters finally decided to vote.

Come on, this is a big boy conversation and all you brought was an overnight diaper.
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Amazing level of condescension from a man who was so wrong about this election.

You were wrong, own it and shut your hole.
 
buckshot24 said:
Amazing level of condescension from a man who was so wrong about this election.

You were wrong, own it and shut your hole.
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that's fucking rich coming from your buckhole. you're a hoot bucky, a hoot and a half. how does it feel knowing drumpf has already walked back the 'drain the swamp' promise? feel good? feel yummy? or does it feel like a small orange hand giving you a reach-around?
 
Sheik Yerbouti said:
that's fucking rich coming from your buckhole. you're a hoot bucky, a hoot and a half. how does it feel knowing drumpf has already walked back the 'drain the swamp' promise? feel good? feel yummy? or does it feel like a small orange hand giving you a reach-around?
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Love you too. Oh, Trump will be sworn in on January 20th and will have both chambers of congress under GOP control. Obamacare is gone. 🙂
 
buckshot24 said:
Amazing level of condescension from a man who was so wrong about this election.

You were wrong, own it and shut your hole.
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Yeah pointing out other people's wrong electoral college predictions rings hollow coming from a turd who was so butthurt from 2012 he failed to nut up with a prediction in 2016 and, worse, shitposts cause he can't reply with depth.

You're not alpha enough, man up Trumpkin. ;-)
 
First said:
Yeah pointing out other people's wrong electoral college predictions rings hollow to coming from a turd who was so butthurt from 2012 he failed to nut up in 2016 and, worse, shitposts cause he can't reply with depth.

You're not alpha enough, man up Trumpkin. ;-)
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I took it much much better than you are taking your prediction this year. You're just adorable.
 
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