2015 Top 20 Semiconductor Forecast

[III-V]

It may hit next year.

It very well could. Likewise, a technological breakthrough could extend things a bit longer... but I think we'll hit a bout of stagnation first.

 

[Systems analyst]

ARM completed their work on 16nm with TSMC, in September last year, IIRC. They announced follow on work on 10nm with TSMC, at that time. They have since implied that 10nm ARM physical IP is available from ARM/TSMC, since a licence has been sold for this.

You may argue that TSMC and the others are behind Intel; we have been told for years that Intel would win in mobile, because of a superior production process; there is just no evidence of the truth of this; in fact, Intel are nowhere in production of mobile SoCs. In my book, that puts them behind TSMC and Samsung.

More info from TSMC:
"TSMC expects to launch 5nm node 2 years after 7nm
Julian Ho, Taipei; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES [Monday 18 January 2016]
TSMC will be ready to roll out its 5nm process technology two years after the launch of its 7nm node, according to the pure-play foundry.

TSMC expects to start production of 7nm chips in the first half of 2018, said company co-CEO Mark Liu at a recent investors meeting. He did not specify whether the node would be ready for volume production or just risk production.

In addition, TSMC has been engaged in R&D for 5nm process technology for one year, said Liu, adding that the node will be ready for launch in the first half of 2020.

TSMC also revealed it will be ready to use extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography to make 5nm chips. "We've made significant progress with EUV to prepare for its insertion, likely in 5nm," Liu indicated.

As for 10nm, TSMC expects to qualify the node which will be ready for customer tape-outs in the first quarter of 2016, Liu said.

CC Wei, TSMC's other co-CEO, noted that TSMC's share of the 14/16nm foundry market segment will rise to more than 70% in 2016 from about 40% in 2015. TSMC's 16nm FinFET processes consisting of 16FF (16nm FinFET), 16FF+ (16nm FinFET Plus) and 16FFC (16nm FinFET Compact) will account for more than 20% of the foundry's total wafer revenues in 2016, Wei said.

The new 16nm FFC node, a low-power and low-cost version of TSMC's 16nm FinFET products, will be ready for volume production in the first quarter of 2016, Wei indicated.

Wei also disclosed TSMC is on track to move its integrated fan-out (InFO) wafer-level packaging technology to volume production in the second quarter of 2016. "We do not expect adoption by a large number of customers. However, we do expect a few very large volume customers," Wei said.

Apple is reportedly among the first wave of customers adopting the InFO packaging technology."