Zogby: McCain Leading by 4%

[ntdz]

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

If the Democrats manage to lose this election it will quite possibly be the biggest failure of any election ever. Palin looks more and more like she was the perfect choice for VP...

 

[Whoozyerdaddy]

This poll doesn't yet reflect on the RCP site yet. And the gap on that site has closed to within two points. I'm guessing that this poll and a few others will narrow the gap even further or show McCain as the outright leader.

The poll I posted in another thread showed clearly that Palin was a great choice and that she had better favorability ratings that either BHO or McCain.

I'm lovin' it.

 

[First]

Zogby had McCain leading by 2.5% on Aug 29th/30th, so McCain leading by 3.8% by Sep 5th/6th isn't much of a surprise and is a very small bump by comparison. In fact, McCain was leading in the same Zogby poll by about 5% Aug 14th-16th. In any case, the overwhelming majority of polls overall show Obama will likely win by a semi-comfortable margin: http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-225.html

This has been obvious for a while now, and since nothing unpredictable or game-changing has really occurred (you could argue Palin is a wildcard though), it's likely Obama is our next president.

 

[Stoneburner]

McCain has been ahead (most likely) since his speech but THIS IS A ZOGBY poll. Zogby hasn't gotten shit right since 2000.

 

[Coldkilla]

Apparently going into the white house with absolutely no plans to fight for the middle class inspires %50+ of the public to want to vote for him. Regardless what you think of Obama's policies, the risk is with McCain not telling you WHAT specifically he will do when he's in office.

 

[deftron]

Obama's a 2:1 favorite at all the big sports betting sites


Link


They generally don't like to lose money

 

[GroundedSailor]

Lets see:


http://www.electionprojection.com/president08.shtml
Obama 278, McCain 260

http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Obama 301, McCain 224

http://realclearpolitics.com/
Obama 238, McCain 174, Toss ups 126
No toss up: Obama 273, McCain 265

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Obama: 308.8, McCain 229.2

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110...ad-Shrinks-Points.aspx
Obama 47%, McCain 45% (too close to call) and after both conventions.

 

[Druidx]

Originally posted by: Coldkilla
Apparently going into the white house with absolutely no plans to fight for the middle class inspires %50+ of the public to want to vote for him. Regardless what you think of Obama's policies, the risk is with McCain not telling you WHAT specifically he will do when he's in office.

You're kidding right? 50% don't know where Obama stands on the issues outside of "HOPE" and "CHANGE". Most people only know about his fake Robin Hood plan of taking from the rich to give to the poor. It's not surprising, when politicians rob (tax) Peter to pay (entitlements) Paul, they can always count on unwavering support from Paul. Even hear about how charity starts at home? Well not in the case of Obama, averages around 1% over 4 years.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

This is an outlier poll, and Zogby tends to be the least reliable of the major polls. (Actually I am a Zogby polling subject and just voted in one last night - I assume it will be published in the next week or so.)

It's not surprising that McCain would show a post-convention bump - the Republicans ran a very effective convention. Still, most major polls have Obama at a significant electoral-vote advantage, and my guess is that the debates will just enhance that. I would be surprised if this election is ultimately all that close.

As for Palin, I simply don't believe that she will, in the final analysis, look like a good choice. The bad news on her continues to trickle out (there WILL be stories this week about her extramarital affairs with Todd Palin's business partner - he just brought an unsuccessful motion to have the court records from his divorce sealed in a failed effort to keep this information out of the public eye), and if the Alaska legislature issues an unfavorable result in the Troopergate investigation, in October of all months, she will be a real liability IMO.

 

[ScottMac]

Rasmussen and Gallop both said that the full effect in the tracking polls won't be evident until the middle of this coming week, with Monday 9/7 being the beginning of the effect/trend, and the middle of the week being a reasonable representation of the candidate's standing following the VP nominations & both conventions.

They said this also applies to the CBS tracking poll, which is conducted against a similar (but larger) sample and similar method.

 

[mshan]

"Obama's a 2:1 favorite at all the big sports betting sites"

What sort of shift in odds occurred through and after the RNC, particularly after the Palin speech? Did the odds breakout to new baseline, suggesting that the playing field has indeed changed significantly? And was there a prior, sustained change in odds baseline after Obama gave his speech in Colorado?

edit: (Chuck Todd said that all public and private polling showed that Obama got a 5 point bounce from his convention, and that all of that bounce came fom uncommitted Democrats.)

 

[Moonbeam]

I'm sure the nut case fundies were energized by McSame's potential victory and impending death.

 

[winnar111]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
McCain has been ahead (most likely) since his speech but THIS IS A ZOGBY poll. Zogby hasn't gotten shit right since 2000.

Yep. He said something about Kerry getting 300 EV 4 years ago.

 

[Carmen813]

Obama has taken the lead in Ohio and Michigan...that's the important polling data. (this is from realclearpolitics). However both those polls are from pre-convention...so it'll be interesting to see what happens to them in the next couple of weeks.

 

[DuffmanOhYeah]

Originally posted by: Don Vito Corleone

As for Palin, I simply don't believe that she will, in the final analysis, look like a good choice. The bad news on her continues to trickle out (there WILL be stories this week about her extramarital affairs with Todd Palin's business partner - he just brought an unsuccessful motion to have the court records from his divorce sealed in a failed effort to keep this information out of the public eye)

Source?

ps. The National Enquirer doesn't count.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: DuffmanOhYeah

Originally posted by: Don Vito Corleone

As for Palin, I simply don't believe that she will, in the final analysis, look like a good choice. The bad news on her continues to trickle out (there WILL be stories this week about her extramarital affairs with Todd Palin's business partner - he just brought an unsuccessful motion to have the court records from his divorce sealed in a failed effort to keep this information out of the public eye)

Source?

I saw it on Wonkette, but I believe Andrew Sullivan originally broke the story.

Here is the court docket reflecting the motion and its denial.

 

[DuffmanOhYeah]

Originally posted by: Don Vito Corleone

Originally posted by: DuffmanOhYeah

Originally posted by: Don Vito Corleone

As for Palin, I simply don't believe that she will, in the final analysis, look like a good choice. The bad news on her continues to trickle out (there WILL be stories this week about her extramarital affairs with Todd Palin's business partner - he just brought an unsuccessful motion to have the court records from his divorce sealed in a failed effort to keep this information out of the public eye)

Source?

I saw it on Wonkette, but I believe Andrew Sullivan originally broke the story.

Here is the court docket reflecting the motion and its denial.

Thanks for the links. I find it interesting however that there is an incongruity between both names and likely dates. The court filings are for a divorce between "Richter, Scott Alan and Richter, Deborah Marie" while The First Post reports the name of the alleged suitor as "Brad Hanson." Link to First Post article

Additionally, the "affair" allegedly took place in the mid-90s and the dissolution was filed in 2007. Not that these details cant come out at a later time, but it certainly seems as though if nothing else, it would not have been the catalyst for divorce.

Any reconciliation?

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: GroundedSailor
Lets see:


http://www.electionprojection.com/president08.shtml
Obama 278, McCain 260

http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Obama 301, McCain 224

http://realclearpolitics.com/
Obama 238, McCain 174, Toss ups 126
No toss up: Obama 273, McCain 265

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Obama: 308.8, McCain 229.2

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110...ad-Shrinks-Points.aspx
Obama 47%, McCain 45% (too close to call) and after both conventions.

And those sites are using state polls that are up to 2 weeks old.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: DuffmanOhYeah

Thanks for the links. I find it interesting however that there is an incongruity between both names and likely dates. The court filings are for a divorce between "Richter, Scott Alan and Richter, Deborah Marie" while The First Post reports the name of the alleged suitor as "Brad Hanson." Link to First Post article

Additionally, the "affair" allegedly took place in the mid-90s and the dissolution was filed in 2007. Not that these details cant come out at a later time, but it certainly seems as though if nothing else, it would not have been the catalyst for divorce.

Any reconciliation?

No idea. I wasn't really aware of the alleged paramour's name and can't account for the difference.

The date issue wouldn't mean the affair couldn't have been referenced in a much later divorce proceedings as part of the cause for the divorce. Obviously without knowing anything about the circumstances of the alleged affair it's hard to know whether the allegation is credible or relevant. We shall see . . .

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: ntdz

And those sites are using state polls that are up to 2 weeks old.

In my experience Real Clear Politics is the best source for fresh poll numbers. They report that Rasmussen's numbers, published today, show a national tie, as do CBS's from Friday. Gallup has Obama up by 2% and Hotline/FD Tracking has him up by 6%.

I don't happen to think that poll numbers at this point mean much - the debates will be where this election is won or lost - but to say that McCain is winning is inaccurate IMO.

 

[DuffmanOhYeah]

Originally posted by: Don Vito Corleone

Originally posted by: DuffmanOhYeah

Thanks for the links. I find it interesting however that there is an incongruity between both names and likely dates. The court filings are for a divorce between "Richter, Scott Alan and Richter, Deborah Marie" while The First Post reports the name of the alleged suitor as "Brad Hanson." Link to First Post article

Additionally, the "affair" allegedly took place in the mid-90s and the dissolution was filed in 2007. Not that these details cant come out at a later time, but it certainly seems as though if nothing else, it would not have been the catalyst for divorce.

Any reconciliation?

No idea. I wasn't really aware of the alleged paramour's name and can't account for the difference.

The date issue wouldn't mean the affair couldn't have been referenced in a much later divorce proceedings as part of the cause for the divorce. Obviously without knowing anything about the circumstances of the alleged affair it's hard to know whether the allegation is credible or relevant. We shall see . . .

I agree on the date issue not being dispositive as I referenced above.

As for the "paramour" (I like that word ) it seems as though the divorced wife in the case with referenced pleadings (Deborah Marie Richter) swears unequivocally that Sarah Palin wasn't involved in an affair Leenk

My guess is that the husband wanted the records sealed as he knew the proceedings would be scrutinized, and he didn't want that for him or his children.

Of course, it is still possible that there is something in there that would put in record a Palin affair. My guess is No affair to affair 80/20. But I suppose we shall see.

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
This poll doesn't yet reflect on the RCP site yet. And the gap on that site has closed to within two points. I'm guessing that this poll and a few others will narrow the gap even further or show McCain as the outright leader.

The poll I posted in another thread showed clearly that Palin was a great choice and that she had better favorability ratings that either BHO or McCain.

I'm lovin' it.

great choice for winning or great choice for being a good vp?

 

[JS80]

Bush isn't unpopular because he's too conservative...he's unpopular because he's too liberal and big government.

 

[Napalm]

Originally posted by: ntdz
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

If the Democrats manage to lose this election it will quite possibly be the biggest failure of any election ever. Palin looks more and more like she was the perfect choice for VP...

If polls are so important, where have you been while Obama has been leading up to this point. Where will you be when upcoming polls suggest Obama is leading again.

There are lies, damned lies and then there are polls...

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: ntdz
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

If the Democrats manage to lose this election it will quite possibly be the biggest failure of any election ever. Palin looks more and more like she was the perfect choice for VP...

I don't care if you're a partisan hack, moderate, independent, whatever, I think all of us can agree with that. If the democrats manage to lose this election, it will be truly a stunning underachievement the likes of which is so substantial they would almost have to get a reward for such rife incompetence.