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Zogby: McCain Leading by 4%

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Napalm

Platinum Member
Oct 12, 1999
2,050
0
0
Originally posted by: Napalm
Originally posted by: ntdz
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

If the Democrats manage to lose this election it will quite possibly be the biggest failure of any election ever. Palin looks more and more like she was the perfect choice for VP...
If polls are so important, where have you been while Obama has been leading up to this point. Where will you be when upcoming polls suggest Obama is leading again.

There are lies, damned lies and then there are polls...
Incidentally - here is what Zogby's polling data has to say about the electoral map: http://www.zogby.com/50state/
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
699
126
Originally posted by: JS80
Bush isn't unpopular because he's too conservative...he's unpopular because he's too liberal and big government.
Bush is unpopular because he's an asshole.
 

Napalm

Platinum Member
Oct 12, 1999
2,050
0
0
Originally posted by: Napalm
Originally posted by: Napalm
Originally posted by: ntdz
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

If the Democrats manage to lose this election it will quite possibly be the biggest failure of any election ever. Palin looks more and more like she was the perfect choice for VP...
If polls are so important, where have you been while Obama has been leading up to this point. Where will you be when upcoming polls suggest Obama is leading again.

There are lies, damned lies and then there are polls...
Incidentally - here is what Zogby's polling data has to say about the electoral map: http://www.zogby.com/50state/
Also - just for $hits and giggles, click on Arkansas (Obama up by 2% - but put in McCain's column anyway), Arizona (Obama up by 3% - but put in McCain's column again) and North Carolina (Obama up by 8% - but marked as too close to call). It perfectly demonstrates why polls are bogus.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,251
5
0
Originally posted by: Don Vito Corleone
Originally posted by: DuffmanOhYeah

Thanks for the links. I find it interesting however that there is an incongruity between both names and likely dates. The court filings are for a divorce between "Richter, Scott Alan and Richter, Deborah Marie" while The First Post reports the name of the alleged suitor as "Brad Hanson." Link to First Post article

Additionally, the "affair" allegedly took place in the mid-90s and the dissolution was filed in 2007. Not that these details cant come out at a later time, but it certainly seems as though if nothing else, it would not have been the catalyst for divorce.

Any reconciliation?
No idea. I wasn't really aware of the alleged paramour's name and can't account for the difference.

The date issue wouldn't mean the affair couldn't have been referenced in a much later divorce proceedings as part of the cause for the divorce. Obviously without knowing anything about the circumstances of the alleged affair it's hard to know whether the allegation is credible or relevant. We shall see . . .
The wife of the guy who she supposedly had the affair with is denying it ever took place.

The fact that we are talking about this subject to such depth is amazing.
Gennifer Flowers came out and said "I had an affair with Bill Clinton" and even had recordings on her answering machine of Bill and yet the press left the story alone.

Now we have unnamed sources suggesting an affair and the media is in a feeding frenzy.

And you wonder why the right complains about media bias.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
73,360
25,105
136
Originally posted by: JS80
Bush isn't unpopular because he's too conservative...he's unpopular because he's too liberal and big government.
You must have had a sip of whatever Mitt Romney is drinking.

I love how you people view conservatism. Conservatism never fails, it is only failed. Every time a conservative politician, in Bush's case an EXTREMELY conservative politician screws something up, it's always because he just wasn't quite conservative enough to make it work.

Sure it is.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
73,360
25,105
136
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Originally posted by: Don Vito Corleone
Originally posted by: DuffmanOhYeah

Thanks for the links. I find it interesting however that there is an incongruity between both names and likely dates. The court filings are for a divorce between "Richter, Scott Alan and Richter, Deborah Marie" while The First Post reports the name of the alleged suitor as "Brad Hanson." Link to First Post article

Additionally, the "affair" allegedly took place in the mid-90s and the dissolution was filed in 2007. Not that these details cant come out at a later time, but it certainly seems as though if nothing else, it would not have been the catalyst for divorce.

Any reconciliation?
No idea. I wasn't really aware of the alleged paramour's name and can't account for the difference.

The date issue wouldn't mean the affair couldn't have been referenced in a much later divorce proceedings as part of the cause for the divorce. Obviously without knowing anything about the circumstances of the alleged affair it's hard to know whether the allegation is credible or relevant. We shall see . . .
The wife of the guy who she supposedly had the affair with is denying it ever took place.

The fact that we are talking about this subject to such depth is amazing.
Gennifer Flowers came out and said "I had an affair with Bill Clinton" and even had recordings on her answering machine of Bill and yet the press left the story alone.

Now we have unnamed sources suggesting an affair and the media is in a feeding frenzy.

And you wonder why the right complains about the media bias.
I don't wonder why the right complains about media bias, it's a great tool for them to deflect criticism and it plays into the persecution complex that is central to the right wing American identity.

Don't make it any more factual, as you have been shown time and time again.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,260
4
81
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: JS80
Bush isn't unpopular because he's too conservative...he's unpopular because he's too liberal and big government.
You must have had a sip of whatever Mitt Romney is drinking.

I love how you people view conservatism. Conservatism never fails, it is only failed. Every time a conservative politician, in Bush's case an EXTREMELY conservative politician screws something up, it's always because he just wasn't quite conservative enough to make it work.

Sure it is.
Which of Bush's policies are considered "conservative"? I were born yesterday I would have guessed a big government liberal was running the show the last 8 years.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,251
5
0
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: ntdz
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

If the Democrats manage to lose this election it will quite possibly be the biggest failure of any election ever. Palin looks more and more like she was the perfect choice for VP...
I don't care if you're a partisan hack, moderate, independent, whatever, I think all of us can agree with that. If the democrats manage to lose this election, it will be truly a stunning underachievement the likes of which is so substantial they would almost have to get a reward for such rife incompetence.
Just imagine the finger pointing that will go on post lost.

Obama will blame Clinton.
Clinton will blame Obama.
The media will blame racist Americans who won't vote for a black guy.

They will point to everything except the actual cause. Obama is to inexperienced and too liberal.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,251
5
0
Originally posted by: Napalm
Originally posted by: Napalm
Originally posted by: Napalm
Originally posted by: ntdz
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

If the Democrats manage to lose this election it will quite possibly be the biggest failure of any election ever. Palin looks more and more like she was the perfect choice for VP...
If polls are so important, where have you been while Obama has been leading up to this point. Where will you be when upcoming polls suggest Obama is leading again.

There are lies, damned lies and then there are polls...
Incidentally - here is what Zogby's polling data has to say about the electoral map: http://www.zogby.com/50state/
Also - just for $hits and giggles, click on Arkansas (Obama up by 2% - but put in McCain's column anyway), Arizona (Obama up by 3% - but put in McCain's column again) and North Carolina (Obama up by 8% - but marked as too close to call). It perfectly demonstrates why polls are bogus.
The data for much of the map is over a month old.

The last update was 8/22 a LOT has happened in the last two weeks.

 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
73,360
25,105
136
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: JS80
Bush isn't unpopular because he's too conservative...he's unpopular because he's too liberal and big government.
You must have had a sip of whatever Mitt Romney is drinking.

I love how you people view conservatism. Conservatism never fails, it is only failed. Every time a conservative politician, in Bush's case an EXTREMELY conservative politician screws something up, it's always because he just wasn't quite conservative enough to make it work.

Sure it is.
Which of Bush's policies are considered "conservative"? I were born yesterday I would have guessed a big government liberal was running the show the last 8 years.
His policy on abortion.
His policy on police powers.
His policy on taxes.
His policy on business regulation.
His policy on the environment.
His policy on the military.
His policy on social security.
His policy on education.

... need I go on? "BUT BUT MEDICARE" does not make up for him being ultra right wing on nearly every other issue. Face it, Bush is a conservative, and with him conservatism failed... horribly.
 

Napalm

Platinum Member
Oct 12, 1999
2,050
0
0
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Originally posted by: Napalm
Originally posted by: Napalm
Originally posted by: Napalm
Originally posted by: ntdz
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

If the Democrats manage to lose this election it will quite possibly be the biggest failure of any election ever. Palin looks more and more like she was the perfect choice for VP...
If polls are so important, where have you been while Obama has been leading up to this point. Where will you be when upcoming polls suggest Obama is leading again.

There are lies, damned lies and then there are polls...
Incidentally - here is what Zogby's polling data has to say about the electoral map: http://www.zogby.com/50state/
Also - just for $hits and giggles, click on Arkansas (Obama up by 2% - but put in McCain's column anyway), Arizona (Obama up by 3% - but put in McCain's column again) and North Carolina (Obama up by 8% - but marked as too close to call). It perfectly demonstrates why polls are bogus.
The data for much of the map is over a month old.

The last update was 8/22 a LOT has happened in the last two weeks.
OK - so help me understand why you would put a State in McCain's column when the only available data supports Obama?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
73,360
25,105
136
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: ntdz
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

If the Democrats manage to lose this election it will quite possibly be the biggest failure of any election ever. Palin looks more and more like she was the perfect choice for VP...
I don't care if you're a partisan hack, moderate, independent, whatever, I think all of us can agree with that. If the democrats manage to lose this election, it will be truly a stunning underachievement the likes of which is so substantial they would almost have to get a reward for such rife incompetence.
Just imagine the finger pointing that will go on post lost.

Obama will blame Clinton.
Clinton will blame Obama.
The media will blame racist Americans who won't vote for a black guy.

They will point to everything except the actual cause. Obama is to inexperienced and too liberal.
Guys, type this post into Google. It's almost a verbatim repetition of several right wing blogs.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,251
5
0
Rasmussen
Rasmussen has them tied.

Which is the same place they were on 8-27.

So we have had two VP picks and two conventions and zero movement in the polls.
It will come down to the debates.

Although, these numbers were not all taken after McCain's speech so we have one more day of polling to get a clear post convention bounce.
At most I would expect a 1 or 2 point lead for McCain though.
The last three days have been even, +1 and +1 for Obama.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,251
5
0
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: ntdz
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

If the Democrats manage to lose this election it will quite possibly be the biggest failure of any election ever. Palin looks more and more like she was the perfect choice for VP...
I don't care if you're a partisan hack, moderate, independent, whatever, I think all of us can agree with that. If the democrats manage to lose this election, it will be truly a stunning underachievement the likes of which is so substantial they would almost have to get a reward for such rife incompetence.
Just imagine the finger pointing that will go on post lost.

Obama will blame Clinton.
Clinton will blame Obama.
The media will blame racist Americans who won't vote for a black guy.

They will point to everything except the actual cause. Obama is to inexperienced and too liberal.
Guys, type this post into Google. It's almost a verbatim repetition of several right wing blogs.
I wish all these people would stop stealing my ideas.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out what will happen.
Give us YOUR take on what is said if Obama losses.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,260
4
81
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: JS80
Bush isn't unpopular because he's too conservative...he's unpopular because he's too liberal and big government.
You must have had a sip of whatever Mitt Romney is drinking.

I love how you people view conservatism. Conservatism never fails, it is only failed. Every time a conservative politician, in Bush's case an EXTREMELY conservative politician screws something up, it's always because he just wasn't quite conservative enough to make it work.

Sure it is.
Which of Bush's policies are considered "conservative"? I were born yesterday I would have guessed a big government liberal was running the show the last 8 years.
His policy on abortion.
His policy on police powers.
His policy on taxes.
His policy on business regulation.
His policy on the environment.
His policy on the military.
His policy on social security.
His policy on education.

... need I go on? "BUT BUT MEDICARE" does not make up for him being ultra right wing on nearly every other issue. Face it, Bush is a conservative, and with him conservatism failed... horribly.
Abortion - what has he done to affect the status quo on abortion? He has no power.
Police powers - you are kidding yourself if you think Gore would have done anything less after 9/11
Taxes - JFK cut taxes, Clinton cut taxes
Business regulation - examples?
Environment - you mean like how he kept Clinton policy of rejecting Kyoto?
Military - Clinton used the same rhetoric against saddam etc he only switched after Bush became president.
SS - he tried to fix SS but dems killed it, so he kept the dem status quo
Education - NCLB was written by Ted Kennedy

Now, if he were successful in having Roe v Wade overturned, he'd be a conservative.
If he cut corporate taxes to at least european levels, he'd be a conservative.
If he imperialized the middle east and made the oil US property, then he'd be a conservative.
If he made SS into private accounts, he'd be a conservative.
If he cut federal funding of education and handed it completely to local governments, he'd be a conservative.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
68,522
3,629
126
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: JS80
Bush isn't unpopular because he's too conservative...he's unpopular because he's too liberal and big government.
You must have had a sip of whatever Mitt Romney is drinking.

I love how you people view conservatism. Conservatism never fails, it is only failed. Every time a conservative politician, in Bush's case an EXTREMELY conservative politician screws something up, it's always because he just wasn't quite conservative enough to make it work.

Sure it is.
Replace the word "Conservative" with the word "Perfection". I twill open your eyes and you'll see that they were right all along.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,251
5
0
Gallup
Gallup has McCain up by 3.

And this could go up even more tomorrow when all three nights of polling as post convention.

BTW the RCP average is down to .8%
Even worse for Obama is that 3 of the last 4 polls released show either tie or McCain ahead.
The last time McCain had the lead was back in March.

I think we could power some windmills with all the spin we are going to see from the Obama posters on these numbers.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,260
4
81
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Gallup
Gallup has McCain up by 3.

And this could go up even more tomorrow when all three nights of polling as post convention.

BTW the RCP average is down to .8%
Even worse for Obama is that 3 of the last 4 polls released show either tie or McCain ahead.
The last time McCain had the lead was back in March.

I think we could power some windmills with all the spin we are going to see from the Obama posters on these numbers.
is that RCP avg a weighted avg of those highlighted polls?
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
30,268
3,802
126
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: JS80
Bush isn't unpopular because he's too conservative...he's unpopular because he's too liberal and big government.
You must have had a sip of whatever Mitt Romney is drinking.

I love how you people view conservatism. Conservatism never fails, it is only failed.
JS80 is spot on. The moment government grew, the moment the Patriot Act became law, and the moment he placed government before the people Bush failed to be conservative. For us, conservatism is to conserve the tenants of the constitution to keep the people empowered over their government.

I understand you don?t believe in those tenants, but when Bush joined you in betraying them calling him an extremist only serves one purpose. To distract us from how very similar you are with him and the abuse of government power. He has grown it just as your hero Barrack will. Being two sides to a coin still makes you the same rotten penny.
 

Druidx

Platinum Member
Jul 16, 2002
2,971
0
76
I wonder if Obama Fans who cheered how accurate RCP was when Obama was leading will now argue RCP is inaccurate. This far out I think the polls are worthless.
 

Stoneburner

Diamond Member
May 29, 2003
3,491
0
76
So McCain gets a convention bounce just like Obama and suddenly it's over?

I must be either really old or some people don't understand presidential campaigns.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,260
4
81
Originally posted by: Jaskalas
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: JS80
Bush isn't unpopular because he's too conservative...he's unpopular because he's too liberal and big government.
You must have had a sip of whatever Mitt Romney is drinking.

I love how you people view conservatism. Conservatism never fails, it is only failed.
JS80 is spot on. The moment government grew, the moment the Patriot Act became law, and the moment he placed government before the people Bush failed to be conservative. For us, conservatism is to conserve the tenants of the constitution to keep the people empowered over their government.

I understand you don?t believe in those tenants, but when Bush joined you in betraying them calling him an extremist only serves one purpose. To distract us from how very similar you are with him and the abuse of government power. He has grown it just as your hero Barrack will. Being two sides to a coin still makes you the same rotten penny.
Yup, he's so unpopular because the left will hate him anyway because he's an R and the right will hate him because he acts nothing like an R.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
McLame has to defend Ohio and pick off either Michigan or Pennsylvania to even be in the game electorally.

But Palin apparently isn't resonating very well in Clinton country: http://www.latimes.com/news/po...0,7702239.story?page=1

If Obama had to win Ohio, then this would be an extremely competitive, if not even uphill, race to the finish. Palin has made the race competitive, but it is ultimately still going to be an uphill fight for Palin McLame '08.

 

Stoneburner

Diamond Member
May 29, 2003
3,491
0
76
Originally posted by: mshan
Mclame has to defend Ohio and pick off either Michigan or Pennsylvania to be competitive electorally.

But Palin apparently isn't resonating very well in Clinton country: http://www.latimes.com/news/po...0,7702239.story?page=1

If Obama had to win Ohio, obviously, this would be an extremely competitive, if not even uphill, race to the finish.
I think FLorida may have turned into a bigger opportunity for Obama than Ohio. Also, Obama needs to shore up NH. Beyond NH, he has options in VA, NC, NV, OH, FL, CO maybe IN. He wins one of those he wins the election.
 

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