Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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ondma

Diamond Member
Mar 18, 2018
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If Zen 6 is a 2027 product, AMD is going to have a major problem remaining competitive in 2026.
Why? Most likely nearly 2025 for ARL, which probably will at best (for Intel) trade blows with Zen 5. Most of 2026 will be ARL refresh, which probably wont bring much to the table. Maybe 2027 will bring Nova Lake, which is rumored to be a significant step up, but the way Intel is executing now, I would not count on it either being on time or delivering the expected performance uplift. So if Zen 6 is late 2026 or early 2027, they should be fine.

I am talking on desktop. Mobile, I have no idea. I am not interested in that area, and the line-ups from both manufacturers are seriously confusing. So I dont know how things will stack up there, although AMD has a serious power advantage now, so even if Intel makes big gains in efficiency, I think AMD should also be fine in mobile.
 
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jdubs03

Senior member
Oct 1, 2013
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Geekerwan managed to get spec results, +8.6% int & 26% fp.

View attachment 104679
I was looking at this too. Since its in this thread I wanted to post the further comparison of its competition. And ask a question:
Anyone have ideas why the i9-14900K values are the same, but the M4 and M3 FP values (but not INT) values are different?

I was thinking it could be due to the flags/compilers chosen, but the i9 would be different too then. The clock speeds are the same too.

1723060676811.png
 

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
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Why? Most likely nearly 2025 for ARL, which probably will at best (for Intel) trade blows with Zen 5. Most of 2026 will be ARL refresh, which probably wont bring much to the table. Maybe 2027 will bring Nova Lake, which is rumored to be a significant step up, but the way Intel is executing now, I would not count on it either being on time or delivering the expected performance uplift. So if Zen 6 is late 2026 or early 2027, they should be fine.

I am talking on desktop. Mobile, I have no idea. I am not interested in that area, and the line-ups from both manufacturers are seriously confusing. So I dont know how things will stack up there, although AMD has a serious power advantage now, so even if Intel makes big gains in efficiency, I think AMD should also be fine in mobile.

Obviously the future is not certain, but 2.5 - 3 years is a long time between architectures and gives a very wide opening for competition to overtake your products. This is especially true on mobile and server where it's not only Intel that AMD has to worry about. In that time frame, Intel will probably have 2 generations out, beyond ARL. Of course, Intel could implode as a company by then, but they may also turn things around successfully. Additionally, ARM cores seem to be iterating pretty quickly as well, though I'm not as familiar with their roadmaps. If I were AMD, that wouldn't leave me feeling confident with my place in the competitive landscape come 2026.
 
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Jul 27, 2020
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It's very fast in branchy web stuff, but somehow not in video games?
Someone needs to test with older games. Modern games stream a lot of data in and out of RAM and since there isn't much improvement on that front, Zen 5 might be extremely memory bound in games. One could test, for example, how going from single channel to dual channel affects a game's fps on both 7700X and 9700X. If the 9700X sees a bigger improvement with dual channel, then it clearly craves more membw and that would bode well for the gaming performance of the 9800X3D.
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,700
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Lets just say there is more left in the tank
His latency numbers seem pretty medicore

But i agree that you can get much more out of Zen5 with a overclock, compared to Zen4.
These cpus are powerlimited at default settings
View attachment 104682
Yeah they should maybe just have named them 9700 and 9600 without the X.

Is there any chance that the redesigned core will benefit more from extra cache, so that it to a higher degree will help in memory bandwidth limited situations?
 

poke01

Platinum Member
Mar 8, 2022
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I was looking at this too. Since its in this thread I wanted to post the further comparison of its competition. And ask a question:
Anyone have ideas why the i9-14900K values are the same, but the M4 and M3 FP values (but not INT) values are different?

I was thinking it could be due to the flags/compilers chosen, but the i9 would be different too then. The clock speeds are the same too.

View attachment 104701
Probably cooling, the M4 is an a 5.1mm tablet. I doubt it maintained its frequency.
 

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
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Be quiet now failed leaker.

It's of course possible that Zen 6 will development will have problems and thus arrive in 2027.

But it's not really possible that AMD is planning to release Zen 6 in 2027.
If it takes until 2027 to get a 10% improvement over Zen 5 then I wager they'll lose every single market to bog-standard licensable commodity ARM cores.
 

jdubs03

Senior member
Oct 1, 2013
880
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Probably cooling, the M4 is an a 5.1mm tablet. I doubt it maintained its frequency.
I see where the difference in the M3 is actually from the 2nd image (had to look at the video on the HX 370).

For the M4 yeah, I went back and he used LN2. That’ll do it lol. So for a passive cooled system that’s quite good. Will be interesting to see what the MacBooks can score.

From my interpretation, I think the pessimism is a bit overdone for the 9700X. IPC improvement is pretty decent. Sure it’s not a gaming workhorse but it’s also not an X3D. So could be better could be worse.
 
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Jul 27, 2020
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But it's not really possible that AMD is planning to release Zen 6 in 2027.
Well, if it needs a mobo change due to DDR6, 2027 might be right. There might be a Zen 5.5 in 2026 that has some features of Zen 6 but uses DDR5.

If we assume that Intel jumps on the DDR6 bandwagon in 2026, AMD may wait one year for the DDR6 prices to come down.
 

CakeMonster

Golden Member
Nov 22, 2012
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Well, if it needs a mobo change due to DDR6, 2027 might be right. There might be a Zen 5.5 in 2026 that has some features of Zen 6 but uses DDR5.

If we assume that Intel jumps on the DDR6 bandwagon in 2026, AMD may wait one year for the DDR6 prices to come down.
Sounds very unlikely to me with DDR6 so soon, that's why I'd hope AMD has a plan for DDR5 platform with new IO die and 3N in 2026.
 

blackangus

Member
Aug 5, 2022
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When you have to cherry pick Tom's, you know you are grasping at straws.

Most of the reputable sites are showing about 5% difference in both Windows games and productivity.
First Im not cherry picking anything, thats a (bad) assumption.
I literally said - "Thats the only thing I have had time to look at" and you still feel the need to insult.
Second 5% more performance for much less power consumption still supports my original statement of more performance for less power.