Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

They've even screen dumped the post in the article, so some of us are outed in the news flow now.

I am there, Yes!
Now, I am famous.

 

[Joe NYC]

The 7700x is $114 and the 7800X3D is $217 at MC with bundle pricing. If you add each individual item from the bundle (don't just add the bundle) you can see prices for the individual items shown in the cart with the discount applied. You can then return the mobo and/or RAM from the bundle if you don't want them, although the discounts are also okay on those items.

I'm not sure how relevant this is to the discussion, but it sure makes you wonder how concerned AMD is with maintaining high margin if they can cut a deal with a major US retailer that allows for discounts like that.

I don't think it would be right to take a bundle and subtract other components at their list prices to arrive the cost of Zen 4. The math on the bundles may be a little more fuzzy than that.

But it still does point to some of the Zen 4 CPUs discounting even deeper under the MSRP. When CPUs are compared under performance / price criteria, reviewers plug in these unrealistic MSRPs.

It doesn't seem like a smart approach of AMD marketing to raise the MSRPs even higher, making the difference between MSRP and street price even greater.

It seems to me that it would be in AMD's interest to stop this lunacy, and instead of perpetuating fictitious MSRP, AMD would take an opportunity (of highly desirable Zen 5 product) to introduce realistic MSRP and maintaining it throughout the channel.

 

[adroc_thurston]

to introduce realistic MSRP and maintaining it throughout the channel.

Yes very realistic.
You're gonna pay $999 for 16c.

 

[Joe NYC]

You also couldn't buy one for many months after launch. The only Vermeer available was the 5800X in that time period.

This was still during the Covid era shortages. I was able to get one (5800X) from AMD.com at list price, where it appeared sporadically and was sold out almost instantly.

 

[AMDK11]

But the ALUs are the exe units, the FPU is still under the ALUs s control for completion of the operations.

Beside your comparison to Intel s 5 ALUs is not relevant since that s not the same uarch, you forgot that Zen 4 has 4 ALUs and is still on par with GC IPC wise.

On average IPC +40%, you will have to divide it by half. You will see and remember my words.

 

[CouncilorIrissa]

One thing is certain, the number of "I told you so" after first benchmarks are out will be insane. Save up links to each other's posts, folks, you're going to need them.

 

[Joe NYC]

Yes very realistic.
You're gonna pay $999 for 16c.

My point is: I am against fake MSRPs with subsequent deep discounts. Makes the company look amateurish.

Apple products sell mostly at MSRP. That should be the goal of AMD establishing itself as a premium brand.

 

[Timorous]

One thing is certain, the number of "I told you so" after first benchmarks are out will be insane. Save up links to each other's posts, folks, you're going to need them.

The fallout may be just as fun as the initial reviews.

 

[Rigg]

I don't think it would be right to take a bundle and subtract other components at their list prices to arrive the cost of Zen 4. The math on the bundles may be a little more fuzzy than that.

I think you are misunderstanding me. The price I posted isn't just the bundle with the RAM and motherboard subtracted at their respective list prices. If you add the individual components into your cart (all items must be in stock) instead of the bundle the CPU price shows up in the cart. If you reserve them that way, the RAM and/or motherboard can be returned (immediately after checkout if you want) and you can keep the CPU for that price.

 

[Joe NYC]

I think you are misunderstanding me. The price I posted isn't just the bundle with the RAM and motherboard subtracted at their respective list prices. If you add the individual components into your cart (all items must be in stock) instead of the bundle the CPU price shows up in the cart. If you reserve them that way, the RAM and/or motherboard can be returned (immediately after checkout if you want) and you can keep the CPU for that price.

View attachment 96118

Actually, now that you mention it, I remember getting a receipt e-mailed to me by Micro Center, for a bundle I bought, and it had similar breakdown of prices...

 

[Rigg]

Actually, now that you mention it, I remember getting a receipt e-mailed to me by Micro Center, for a bundle I bought, and it had similar breakdown of prices...

It's interesting that this is how they have it setup in their point of sale system. I presume this is the sale price that goes on their books for CPU's that are sold in bundles. I get the sense that MC is getting some mighty fine pricing from AMD and Intel as it seems unlikely they'd sell CPU's below cost. I'm probably reading too much into it though. It's pure speculation on my part. I'm certainly not their bookkeeper or anyone elses.

 

[DrMrLordX]

This was still during the Covid era shortages. I was able to get one (5800X) from AMD.com at list price, where it appeared sporadically and was sold out almost instantly.

It was a run on good CPUs. There were no problems getting modern Intel CPUs in that time period. And again, the 5800X was available everywhere (it overheated itself).

 

[Rigg]

It was a run on good CPUs. There were no problems getting modern Intel CPUs in that time period.

Yes, but this had to have been at least partly fueled by the unprecedented market conditions at the time. People forced to sit at home with nothing to do no doubt fueled CPU sales during this time period. Especially with a stimulus check burning a hole in their pocket and work/school from home being the norm.

 

[Glo.]

I think that would be pointless compared to normal Strix. You are not going to eke out all that much GPU performance from 128-bit DDR5, no matter how much compute power you have on the system.

(edit: should have refreshed)

All Strix Halo SKUs will have Infinity Cache. Even the 128 bit bus one.

 

[Abwx]

On average IPC +40%, you will have to divide it by half. You will see and remember my words.

So far i made no prediction about IPC, i just pointed that your way of estimating the possible improvement was somewhat flawed.

That being said 50% more ALUs allow theorically 50% higher IPC assuming that those 6 ALUs have same duty rate as Zen 4 4 ALUs, of course that s hardly doable but anything from the leaked 10-15% to 20-25% is possible.

Chip and Cheese pointed that the leaked 10-15% figure is quite modest in respect of the uarch evolution, and indeed it s of the same order as the 13% brought by Zen 4 despite a uarch that is essentialy the same as Zen 3.

 

[Glo.]

My point is: I am against fake MSRPs with subsequent deep discounts. Makes the company look amateurish.

Apple products sell mostly at MSRP. That should be the goal of AMD establishing itself as a premium brand.

Have you seen recently the discounts on iPhones, Mac Mini's, MBPs, Mac Studios?

I can get an iPhone 15, not Pro, nor Pro Max, not 15 Plus, just iPhone 15, in my third world european country, like Poland 250$ less than MSRP.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Now the 40% claim has reached major mainstream news media:

AMD Zen 5 Is Mind Blowing 40% Faster than Current Ryzen 7000 CPUs

AMD Ryzen 9000 processors could offer the biggest performance increase since Ryzen's launch in 2017 with a claim of 40% faster core-for-core performance over Ryzen 7000

www.forbes.com

This thing is spreading like wildfire. CNN and New York Times in a few hours?

Who knows, it might even start affecting the stock price.

 

[Kolifloro]

For those of you with an already 'calibrated' crystal ball ... and regarding 'Strix Halo' :

Those 125 watts ... I assume it would depend on the kind of stress test ... BUT ... is there any way to say something like ????

from those 125 watts, approximately X% are assigned to the CPU ... ... and the rest are for the iGPU ...


Basically ... I would like to be able to infer an approximate CPU consume for those of us with a pretty irregular iGPU use ...


Maybe an indirect way to get to that ... might be knowing how many watts are needed for a stress test on a ... 16 Zen5 desktop CPU ... on 'economic' profile (lower clock frecuency) ...


Thank you and regards ...

 

[Fjodor2001]

from those 125 watts, approximately X% are assigned to the CPU ... ... and the rest are for the iGPU ...

Will it not be assigned dynamically, so e.g. if the iGPU is mostly idling then the CPU gets more or less all of the 125W (if it needs that much for the current workload)?

 

[Abwx]

Now the 40% claim has reached major mainstream news media:

AMD Zen 5 Is Mind Blowing 40% Faster than Current Ryzen 7000 CPUs

AMD Ryzen 9000 processors could offer the biggest performance increase since Ryzen's launch in 2017 with a claim of 40% faster core-for-core performance over Ryzen 7000

www.forbes.com

This thing is spreading like wildfire. CNN and New York Times in a few hours?

Who knows, it might even start affecting the stock price.

Whatever the outcome that s a big advertisement for AMD, and that s for free, from this article :

Owners of AMD Ryzen 7000 CPUs have the added advantage later this year of being able to drop in the new CPUs to their existing systems with its new Socket AM5 platform definitely supporting its new range of Zen 5 models due to launch later in 2024. Intel, on the other hand, will be introducing a new CPU socket and CPU architecture so potential customers will have to buy new motherboards as well as the processors.

 

[Goop_reformed]

On average IPC +40%, you will have to divide it by half. You will see and remember my words.

I'd not be disappointed with 25% st uplift

 

[Joe NYC]

Forbes quoting @Kepler_L2 on AnandTech forums:

AMD Zen 5 Is Mind Blowing 40% Faster than Current Ryzen 7000 CPUs

AMD Ryzen 9000 processors could offer the biggest performance increase since Ryzen's launch in 2017 with a claim of 40% faster core-for-core performance over Ryzen 7000

www.forbes.com

 

[Markfw]

While not exactly defending the $999 price, and without any benchmarks that might justify it, does anybody remember the chips in the past that Intel charged $1000 for ? Like even a 6 core ? Maybe even a quad core ? I think it was a 5930 6 core that I bought and it was expensive.

 

[Joe NYC]

While not exactly defending the $999 price, and without any benchmarks that might justify it, does anybody remember the chips in the past that Intel charged $1000 for ? Like even a 6 core ? Maybe even a quad core ? I think it was a 5930 6 core that I bought and it was expensive.

I had Intel 5930 HEDT, until a few months ago. It was the other, 8 core CPU that was $999

From Anandtech article: https://www.anandtech.com/show/8426...review-core-i7-5960x-i7-5930k-i7-5820k-tested

 

[Markfw]

I had Intel 5930 HEDT, until a few months ago. It was the other, 8 core CPU that was $999

From Anandtech article: https://www.anandtech.com/show/8426...review-core-i7-5960x-i7-5930k-i7-5820k-tested

View attachment 96135

Just as a comparison. 8 core at 3.5 ghz (2014, $999) vs 3.75 all core boost for 9554 (2022 $7104) so faster and cheaper percore (888 per 8 for 9554) more memory, everything.

I know you can't really compare HEDT to server but its the closest I could think of. But 8 core 5700x is $163 and boost of 4.6 for desktop.