Your Opinion on Hybrids and the Future of Automobiles

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jji7skyline

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Firstly, no flaming please.

So recently Top Gear tested the BMW i8, supposedly the future in electric cars and even though it was great (Jeremy Clarkson said it was better than the highly regarded M3), they later revealed that the true fuel consumption was much lower than advertised, not much better than a regular petrol powered car. Don't forget this car costs a lot!

Prius owners have also been saying that their fuel consumption has been nowhere near advertised when driven in real-world conditions.

Additionally, purely electric cars may not use oil, but they still use fossil fuels if the electricity was generated from coal, as it in is Australia. In places like France they use mostly nuclear, although that has its own problems.

Batteries also use rare earth elements and have disposal problems. Not as environmentally friendly as many people think.

Don't mistake this for a EV-hate topic though, I love the idea of cars that have a hybrid drivetrain with the electric motor kicking in to provide extra power and such. I just cannot believe that the public is lead to believe that electric and hybrid cars are hugely beneficial to the environment when there are actually many petrol-powered cars that have better real-world fuel consumption figures than hybrid cars.

I think that car manufacturers should look further into fuel cell technologies that use alternative fuels such as Hydrogen and biofuels.

What do you think?
 
Mar 11, 2004
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This is a complex situation, but you've done a decent summary of some of the issues with EVs and hybrids. So far there is no perfect solution. EVs doe have some issues, but so does everything else.

First, gasoline, while it has many issues has a lot of advantages. It has a high energy density as well as other aspects that make it an ideal fuel source, and that's before you even consider the robust infrastructure in place to support it. But it does produce a lot of pollution and just accessing its reserves is becoming more intensive (want to talk about dirty, read up on the Canadian shale sands, or ocean drilling).

EVs do have a lot of issues at the moment, and yes the electricity they utilize can come from dirty sources, but electricity is still relatively cleaner than gasoline, but we do need more modern nuclear plants, and it'd be good to also build up infrastructure like wind and solar.

The biggest environmental problem with electric drivetrains are the batteries and the rare earth materials. Batteries have improved and there's a lot of research being done to improve them, but so far few tangible ones that have actually been able to be mass produced. Even without battery advancements we could still move to EVs pretty significantly, so if we had say fusion reactors, then that would likely be our best path as the electricity production and using EVs would be much cleaner. Or if we can actually get some tangible battery breakthroughs, and it would help big time.

As for hybrids living up to their potential, it depends on the drivers. If you get one expecting to drive it like a modern powerful family sedan (and therefore compensate with heavy throttle use), then yeah they will fall short. But that's an easy fix, just stop driving like that (there's really no good reason for it to begin with, regardless of what you drive, assuming you're interested in fuel economy).

I'm guessing this is a big part of why the i8 is seeing it fall well short of it's expected output, i'ts being driven like it's a DeLorean and if you can hit 88mph somehow it'll distort time or something. It's just what's going to happen when you stress a small engine like that, and because of how the car is setup you'll be stressing that engine almost constantly. I've honestly been surprised at the rampant positive buzz over the i8 as it really doesn't seem special, it just seems to be that people were expecting a Prius and got something more sporty instead, so they were pleasantly surprised which leads to overly positive initial feedback. Also like the DeLorean you hear a lot of talk about how the looks draw a crowd. Not that it's a bad car (and certainly not as bad as the DeLorean which was quite the dog, but I do think there are some similarities in that it's not as sporty as it's portrayed; the tires alone limit it quite a lot; it's good for a grand tourer, its really just not an outright sports car, although it can do a good impression of one now and again, but compare it to say a Stingray and well I'd hazard it will fall short in everything but acceleration, and the Stingray likely could get 30mpg cruising at 70-80mph). We'll see how it fares in the coming years, both in real world performance, livability, and reliability. I do wonder if the price isn't that high because they baked in the cost of keeping the batteries in great shape (meaning they'll swap battery packs if there's noticeable issues and then probably service the packs to replace any bad cells).

As for fuel cells, they're actually further away from being viable than pure EVs as it requires similar advancements in the on car packaging, as well as major rollout of infrastructure. Many of the fuels also are currently not very well suited for widespread use (i.e. transporting hydrogen to filling stations would be more volatile and expensive than gasoline, think the tanker trucks). Compressed natural gas actually might not be bad as there's already a pretty good infrastructure for it in place, but not sure how it compares, I wouldn't think terribly favorably for whatever reason, I'm guessing gasoline/oil still edges it out in the base cost for the energy you get. Then of course hydrogen requires a lot of energy to make it suitable for fuel cell use.

Biofuels are in many ways even further away from being viable than those even. Yes ethanol is abundant, but it has a whole host of problems, the big one being that using a major food source (or even just the land that would normally go to producing that) as an energy source causes significant conflicts, such that you'd rather not do that. There are further issues (basically the inputs needed to grow and convert say corn into ethanol exceed the benefits of using it as a fuel for vehicles and realistically we are not going to be able to grow enough to make it a true viable alternative for gasoline; it does serve a role though, as I believe it replaced some other more toxic chemical additive to gasoline, MTBE I believe). Sugarcane and I believe switchgrass are even better plants to try and make ethanol from, but sugarcane only grows well in some areas - Brazil has a lot of sugarcane based ethanol for instance - but overall still not ideal solutions. The best way to make biofuels would be to convert it from waste, which is possible by inputting bacteria into tanks of waste, where the bacteria consumes the waste and then produces, well waste of their own, but waste that can be turned into a fuel source (it's similar to ethanol I believe). The problem here is that they don't even know if it will be economically viable (currently it's not really), let alone on a large enough scale to be able to realistically try to use it as even a significant fuel source alternative (on the order of say ethanol). I believe there's even some looking into using algae to make biofuel.

But essentially, none of these are ready to replace gasoline. However there's a lot of research being put forth into finding what can. Likely, the best option, especially for our lifetimes, will be a mixture of fuel sources. Diversity in energy production, where we can get economies of scale and advancement of the various methods, while not being wholly reliant should there be major issues. Does the future hold fusion reactors, fuel cells that help provide power and also clean drinking water, high capacity batteries, kinetic and chemical (heat) recovery systems everywhere, among many other advancements? Who knows, it'll almost certainly be decades before we even begin to find out.

Realistically, I'd guess that pure EVs have the best near potential for offering an alternative to gasoline in vehicles. Especially in highly populated areas where there should be ample access to charging, there's not as much need for very high battery capacity, and there's a need to try and limit the exhaust gas pollutions for public health. No it's not perfect, but it is a step up. Many of the developments EVs need, fuel cell vehicles would as well since, for instance hydrogen is about producing electricity not being used in an ICE. And there's a need for improved batteries in general, which means it's getting more development than fuel cells, and so I'm guessing it will provide more benefits sooner than fuel cells, but a breakthrough in either could significantly shift which one is more viable.
 

jji7skyline

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This is a complex situation, but you've done a decent summary of some of the issues with EVs and hybrids. So far there is no perfect solution. EVs doe have some issues, but so does everything else.

First, gasoline, while it has many issues has a lot of advantages. It has a high energy density as well as other aspects that make it an ideal fuel source, and that's before you even consider the robust infrastructure in place to support it. But it does produce a lot of pollution and just accessing its reserves is becoming more intensive (want to talk about dirty, read up on the Canadian shale sands, or ocean drilling).

EVs do have a lot of issues at the moment, and yes the electricity they utilize can come from dirty sources, but electricity is still relatively cleaner than gasoline, but we do need more modern nuclear plants, and it'd be good to also build up infrastructure like wind and solar.
Good points, I agree with you but I'm personally skeptical on nuclear power. In the end we're still using non-renewable resources, and you never know when something will go wrong. Chernobyl and the recent Japanese nuclear disaster are prime examples of what can happen when relatively mistakes are made with regards to atomic power. Arguably a lot worse than oil-disasters. I've done a lot of research into this and the damage is a lot worse than most people realise.

The biggest environmental problem with electric drivetrains are the batteries and the rare earth materials. Batteries have improved and there's a lot of research being done to improve them, but so far few tangible ones that have actually been able to be mass produced. Even without battery advancements we could still move to EVs pretty significantly, so if we had say fusion reactors, then that would likely be our best path as the electricity production and using EVs would be much cleaner. Or if we can actually get some tangible battery breakthroughs, and it would help big time.

I also hope that we will be able to develop better battery technologies in future.

As for hybrids living up to their potential, it depends on the drivers. If you get one expecting to drive it like a modern powerful family sedan (and therefore compensate with heavy throttle use), then yeah they will fall short. But that's an easy fix, just stop driving like that (there's really no good reason for it to begin with, regardless of what you drive, assuming you're interested in fuel economy).
This is something I have a big problem with. If fuel economy were that big an issue and we were prepared to sacrifice performance and safety for it, we would all be driving 2 cylinder death traps. In my view, any alternative fuel vehicles must be able to match the performance of conventionally fueled cars while having a smaller environmental impact.

I'm guessing this is a big part of why the i8 is seeing it fall well short of it's expected output, i'ts being driven like it's a DeLorean and if you can hit 88mph somehow it'll distort time or something. It's just what's going to happen when you stress a small engine like that, and because of how the car is setup you'll be stressing that engine almost constantly. I've honestly been surprised at the rampant positive buzz over the i8 as it really doesn't seem special, it just seems to be that people were expecting a Prius and got something more sporty instead, so they were pleasantly surprised which leads to overly positive initial feedback. Also like the DeLorean you hear a lot of talk about how the looks draw a crowd. Not that it's a bad car (and certainly not as bad as the DeLorean which was quite the dog, but I do think there are some similarities in that it's not as sporty as it's portrayed; the tires alone limit it quite a lot; it's good for a grand tourer, its really just not an outright sports car, although it can do a good impression of one now and again, but compare it to say a Stingray and well I'd hazard it will fall short in everything but acceleration, and the Stingray likely could get 30mpg cruising at 70-80mph). We'll see how it fares in the coming years, both in real world performance, livability, and reliability. I do wonder if the price isn't that high because they baked in the cost of keeping the batteries in great shape (meaning they'll swap battery packs if there's noticeable issues and then probably service the packs to replace any bad cells).
Very interesting points. It's definitely hard to see the i8 powersliding around any tracks, which I'm guessing is why Top Gear didn't test it on their track, but rather went on a touring trip.

As for fuel cells, they're actually further away from being viable than pure EVs as it requires similar advancements in the on car packaging, as well as major rollout of infrastructure. Many of the fuels also are currently not very well suited for widespread use (i.e. transporting hydrogen to filling stations would be more volatile and expensive than gasoline, think the tanker trucks). Compressed natural gas actually might not be bad as there's already a pretty good infrastructure for it in place, but not sure how it compares, I wouldn't think terribly favorably for whatever reason, I'm guessing gasoline/oil still edges it out in the base cost for the energy you get. Then of course hydrogen requires a lot of energy to make it suitable for fuel cell use.
Infrastructure is definitely the biggest barrier to widespread fuel-cell use at this point. Hydrogen has inherent difficulties in storage and transportation due to the fact that it will leak out of almost any container, and is highly unstable. The plus side though is that it can be used in most existing cars with little to no modifications.

Biofuels are in many ways even further away from being viable than those even. Yes ethanol is abundant, but it has a whole host of problems, the big one being that using a major food source (or even just the land that would normally go to producing that) as an energy source causes significant conflicts, such that you'd rather not do that. There are further issues (basically the inputs needed to grow and convert say corn into ethanol exceed the benefits of using it as a fuel for vehicles and realistically we are not going to be able to grow enough to make it a true viable alternative for gasoline; it does serve a role though, as I believe it replaced some other more toxic chemical additive to gasoline, MTBE I believe). Sugarcane and I believe switchgrass are even better plants to try and make ethanol from, but sugarcane only grows well in some areas - Brazil has a lot of sugarcane based ethanol for instance - but overall still not ideal solutions. The best way to make biofuels would be to convert it from waste, which is possible by inputting bacteria into tanks of waste, where the bacteria consumes the waste and then produces, well waste of their own, but waste that can be turned into a fuel source (it's similar to ethanol I believe). The problem here is that they don't even know if it will be economically viable (currently it's not really), let alone on a large enough scale to be able to realistically try to use it as even a significant fuel source alternative (on the order of say ethanol). I believe there's even some looking into using algae to make biofuel.
Making fuel for transportation from food staples is definitely a heated issue, but I think that creating fuel from waste is a viable and ideal solution. Unfortunately, as you said, it is likely too expensive at the moment.

But essentially, none of these are ready to replace gasoline. However there's a lot of research being put forth into finding what can. Likely, the best option, especially for our lifetimes, will be a mixture of fuel sources. Diversity in energy production, where we can get economies of scale and advancement of the various methods, while not being wholly reliant should there be major issues. Does the future hold fusion reactors, fuel cells that help provide power and also clean drinking water, high capacity batteries, kinetic and chemical (heat) recovery systems everywhere, among many other advancements? Who knows, it'll almost certainly be decades before we even begin to find out.

Realistically, I'd guess that pure EVs have the best near potential for offering an alternative to gasoline in vehicles. Especially in highly populated areas where there should be ample access to charging, there's not as much need for very high battery capacity, and there's a need to try and limit the exhaust gas pollutions for public health. No it's not perfect, but it is a step up. Many of the developments EVs need, fuel cell vehicles would as well since, for instance hydrogen is about producing electricity not being used in an ICE. And there's a need for improved batteries in general, which means it's getting more development than fuel cells, and so I'm guessing it will provide more benefits sooner than fuel cells, but a breakthrough in either could significantly shift which one is more viable.
I see what you mean, electric vehicles are currently the cheapest and easiest alternative vehicles. Range is still a huge problem though, but I'm sure it was an issue in the 19th century automobiles too. Hopefully, advancements in the efficiency of electric components and the capacity of rechargeable batteries will make EVs more and more attractive. Now if only the electric grid could be powered by more renewable sources.
 

Smoblikat

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Nov 19, 2011
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My thoughts are as follows:

My car has an $1100 exhaust on it, if it was electric I wouldnt be able to hear it, so no electric for me.
 

cbrunny

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Oct 12, 2007
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I know very little about hybrids, and really just cars generally. But in my opinion, there is no downside to having hybrids or full-electrics on the road. Even if, as you have pointed out, the electricity is generated by coal, innovation is innovation. That's almost never a bad thing. If anything, improvements to the hybrid/electric car systems that lead to greater consumer use of these technologies should encourage greater pollution control through shifting opinions.

That being said, advances in power generation will probably be the biggest driver in advancing electric cars (as opposed to advances in the engine technology). Particularly solar.
 

TheAdvocate

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Mar 7, 2005
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90% of my driving is < 10 miles, but I have a V6. Work has free charging and preferred parking for plug in electrics. Tesla just installed 6 charging stations at the grocery store by my house (I don't even live in a particularly affluent area). I'd love a PHEV, but this one's paid for. There are quite a few people like me.
 

Midwayman

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Jan 28, 2000
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Electric is the future I think. What is going to sell it will be the self driving car. One of the biggest issues for consumers is range. What if your car was always fully charged when you got in it? Think robotaxis for the most part where all you do it hit a button and it summons one for you. It would be perfect for 99% of the trip people make. If you don't have to worry about the charge and they can go charge themselves, range anxiety goes away. They are undeniably cheaper to operates, so make a ton of sense as a fleet vehicle like that.
 

Yuriman

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Jun 25, 2004
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darkswordsman17 hit the nail on the head with regards to why hybrids might not be delivering the economy advertised, but I'd like to elaborate on why driving style matters so much.

First, a personal example:

Up until recently, I had two cars. One was a late 90's Honda Civic variant with a tuned B18c, putting out ~200HP at ~8000rpm, and weighing in at around 2300lbs. The other, a 2000 Honda Insight, with a 1.0L 67hp gasser + 13hp electric assist, weighing in at 1800lbs. In the Civic I averaged around 30mpg with mixed driving. If I were really heavy on it, I might see a tank that was 25-27mpg, and if I drove carefully, maybe as high as 35mpg. In the Insight, if I drive like an asshole, it's possible to see numbers as low as 35 around town. If I take it easy, I can see in excess of 80mpg (my record is 113mpg driving across Orlando on 35mph roads with stoplights).

Unfortunately you can't beat the laws of physics, and it takes a fixed amount of energy to get a car of X weight up to speed, and a fixed amount of energy to push a car of Y drag through the wind at 70mph. If I mash the accelerator from a light in both cars, and slam on my breaks at the next light, the very best I can hope for in the hybrid is slightly better fuel economy than the weight difference. Not coincidentally, 28mpg and 35mpg are almost perfectly proportional to the weight difference between the two vehicles.

Engines are tuned to be efficient at different RPMs. Most make the most power per fuel consumed at around 80% load (low vacuum) between 2,000 and 3,000rpm, but cam timing and lift, as well as bore:stroke + other factors such as fuel type and combustion chamber design may shift or stretch the efficiency bubble. When I rev my Insight up to 6000rpm when it's tuned to run most efficiently between 1,500 and 2,500rpm, I'm well outside its optimal efficiency range. The B18c on the other hand is relatively more efficient at 5000rpm+.

At lower rev ranges, the Insight's 1.0 begins to run away from the B18 in economy. For one, since it's a smaller motor, it runs much closer to 80% load when cruising. It's also geared taller to stay in that load range, with hybrid assist providing acceleration for passing power, rather than simply running with a lot of power to spare, which is where almost all of the fuel economy improvements in steady-speed cruising come from. Around town, the bigger B18 idles at stoplights, burning something like 0.25 to 0.30 gallons per hour, while the Insight shuts its motor off and burns nothing.

Hybrids also generally reduce parasitic losses, which are relatively larger when you're going for low fuel consumption. The B18 has a lossy alternator, while the Insight as a high efficiency electric generator and DC-DC converter. The B18 has a conventional power steering pump which is constantly consuming fuel, while the 1.0 does this electrically and only uses energy when its needed. Regenerative braking is actually one of the least useful parts of a hybrid, but that too recaptures energy that would otherwise have been converted into brake dust.

In order to get the most out of any car, it's best to spend as large a portion of your driving time in its optimal efficiency range, and hybrids make that range bigger, and staying in it much more rewarding. Drive a hybrid hard, and you're likely to end up with the same fuel economy but far less power to play with than with a conventional powertrain tuned for higher RPMs.
 
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Eug

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Mar 11, 2000
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Prius owners have also been saying that their fuel consumption has been nowhere near advertised when driven in real-world conditions.
My Prius's fuel consumption was nowhere near advertised, with my driving style. However, with the same style of driving, the mid-size rentals I've driven also have a fuel consumption nowhere near advertised. I always think it's odd that people point this out for the Prius, but then forget the same thing happens with other cars.

The non-hybrids I have been driving have a fuel consumption of roughly 50% - 75% more than the Prius (and mine was a 2004). It's simply no contest, with my predominantly city driving.

So, while the fuel consumption numbers are inaccurate for most people, they do to some extent act as a reasonable tool for comparisons between cars.

If you want to mimic a GOOD hybrid's gas mileage in a non-hybrid gasoline car, you have to get a smaller car.

BTW, we also have a Toyota Yaris, which is tiny, and our Prius got noticeably better gas mileage than that too, real-world.

tl;dr:

A Prius will get its rated fuel economy only under very specific conditions, but that's true of any car, and in general a Prius will get way, way, way better fuel economy than any non-hybrid gasoline car of similar size, esp. in the city.

--

P.S. I bought out my 36 month lease of my 2004 Prius in January 2007, for CAD$18600 (including tax) or something like that. (It was actually less, because I claimed back over $1000 in tax from the government, because there was a tax rebate at the time.) It was totalled last week, and I got just under CAD$9000 back for it from the insurance company. That was the calculated value by JD Power, based on comparable sales plus tax. The actual value calculated was just under $8000, plus about $1000 tax.

These things have insane resale value, and I suspect it's a combination of its excellent real world gas mileage and its very good repair record.
 
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Yuriman

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Jun 25, 2004
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I had a Versa Note rental last week, and found I was able to average 40-55mpg around town in a vehicle rated for 29 city. It has an instantaneous MPG readout, and driving at a steady 35mph in warmish weather, it delivered 70-100+mpg with engine RPM around 1200-1500. The problem is when you have to slow down and accelerate, it burns a ton of gas.

Overall I was impressed at how far cars have come, and the crazy economy you can get if you take it easy and don't play stoplight hero.
 

Eug

Lifer
Mar 11, 2000
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The problem is when you have to slow down and accelerate, it burns a ton of gas.
Yep. This is a major problem where I live - Toronto. The Prius compensates nicely for this though, which is why it does so much better than the rental non-hybrids. The stop and go traffic totally destroys the gas mileage for any non-hybrid.
 

tweakmonkey

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Clarkson was racing the i8 around making no effort to conserve fuel. If you drive a 100 mpg car at wide open throttle it will still get much less mileage than advertised, just like a 20 mpg m3 will get 8 mpg if racing around.

Also even if they're using fossil fuels for electric power, electric vehicles are much more efficient (energy used vs waste) than ice cars, and they don't spill pollution everywhere they go (instead centralizing it to the power plants).

I think your points seem valid but these have pretty much all been debunked years ago.
 

tweakmonkey

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Kind of off topic but I wanted to add here: no matter how you look at it cars as a whole are ridiculous wastes of space and energy. In cities or suburbs, imagine how much closer all our buildings could be together without freeways, roads and parking lots. Instead we if from day 1 we had planned cities around other transportation like bikes and trains and boats, we wouldn't need all this self perpetuating infrastructure.

Fwiw - I work in the auto industry, in particular high end sports car tuning (Porsches) and realized this years ago. Cars are a silly luxury and a horrid long term civic design concept. The idea that a place like LA exists with its population all driving ~3000 lb cars per person is downright insanity and unsustainable long term no matter if the cars run on electricity or gas.
 
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Midwayman

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Also no matter how you look at it cars as a whole are ridiculous wastes of space and energy. Imagine how much closer all our buildings could be together without freeways, roads and parking lots. Instead we if from day 1 we had planned cities around other transportation like bikes and trains and boats...

Fwiw - I work in the auto industry, in particular high end sports car tuning (Porsches) and realized this years ago. Cars are a silly luxury and a horrid long term civic design concept. The idea that a place like LA exists with its population all driving ~3000 lb cars per person is downright insanity and unsustainable long term no matter if the cars run on electricity or gas.

If you're talking about current cars, yes. Eleectric SDC have a projected cost per mile less than most current public transit. Also being able to get rid of parking,etc will fix a lot of that.
 

JulesMaximus

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Jul 3, 2003
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Firstly, no flaming please.

So recently Top Gear tested the BMW i8, supposedly the future in electric cars and even though it was great (Jeremy Clarkson said it was better than the highly regarded M3), they later revealed that the true fuel consumption was much lower than advertised, not much better than a regular petrol powered car. Don't forget this car costs a lot!

Prius owners have also been saying that their fuel consumption has been nowhere near advertised when driven in real-world conditions.

Additionally, purely electric cars may not use oil, but they still use fossil fuels if the electricity was generated from coal, as it in is Australia. In places like France they use mostly nuclear, although that has its own problems.

Batteries also use rare earth elements and have disposal problems. Not as environmentally friendly as many people think.

Don't mistake this for a EV-hate topic though, I love the idea of cars that have a hybrid drivetrain with the electric motor kicking in to provide extra power and such. I just cannot believe that the public is lead to believe that electric and hybrid cars are hugely beneficial to the environment when there are actually many petrol-powered cars that have better real-world fuel consumption figures than hybrid cars.

I think that car manufacturers should look further into fuel cell technologies that use alternative fuels such as Hydrogen and biofuels.

What do you think?

My Camry Hybrid is rated at 39 highway and 40 city mileage. I average about 38-39mpg and have for the last 40,000 miles. The more stop and go traffic the better my mileage is. I've seen over 46mpg city.

You show me a petrol powered midsize car that has better real world city mileage than that.

FTR-I just drive normally, not doing any of the bullshit some drivers do to get every last bit of economy out of their cars. I'm going 75-80mph on the freeway, accelerating normally, braking normally. I do try to keep it in electric only mode when in stop and go traffic but otherwise I don't do anything special when driving it. It is my daily commuter and has been for the past 2 years.
 
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