Yield Curve Inverts

[Ferocious]

I heard 4 of last 6 have led to recession, technically speaking.

But ALL have led to a significant slow down.

I think Bush has reached the limit on the credit card for now. Time to go after the poor and elderly some more.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Engineer
There was another analyst on CNBC just now that says that all six inverstions during his investment career have led to some sort of recession, but that six was not enough of a statistical sampling to show that they all do and felt that this one would not do the same. FWIW.

I am not sure how that is possible. There have been six inversions and only 3 recessions sine 1980.

I'm not the person talking...only reporting. I was doing it live as I was listening. I have no idea about any of this. 😕

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Lots of pure speculation here----how investor act is a little like watching lemming jump off cliffs.

But in my mind any recent economic progress made is based on running up ever more debt, a similar
thing happened with Ronald Reagan but at least American industrial decline was not as much part of the mix.
The key is still our trade defecit that has been growing by leaps and bounds since 1980.

One fine day our creditors will cut us off and the merry go round will stop. Meanwhile we are living off savings
taken from the flat lined stock market and invested in the new McMansions now blighting the landscape. As decent paying American jobs are outsourced, it takes no crystal ball to realise a crunch will come.------with the better
placed unable to run faster to maintain the same income from a ever shrinking pie. But when the base of the food chain goes, there goes the consumer spending that keeps this economy afloat. Once unemployment goes much higher, the end will be near.

We have already outsourced the means of recovery.------and no one really planning for what next after the Feds
steering wheels--already locked and turned hard right fails to arrest the skid.

Just my take on the matter----that yield curve thing is not much of an indicator---when we have only to look and see that the debt we are living on now must sooner or later catch up with us.------and much sooner is my guess.

The US consumer is living just like the US government...beyond their means!

I was looking at the cuts of 39.x billion over 5 years that was just pushed through. During that time, 13.x trillion is to be spent. 3/10 of one percent. I guess it all adds up, but from the article, it doesn't even cover some tax cuts that are being pushed through. Fiscal responsibility has been dropped from the American rolls on all levels.....sadly! *sigh*

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Lots of pure speculation here----how investor act is a little like watching lemming jump off cliffs.

But in my mind any recent economic progress made is based on running up ever more debt, a similar
thing happened with Ronald Reagan but at least American industrial decline was not as much part of the mix.
The key is still our trade defecit that has been growing by leaps and bounds since 1980.

One fine day our creditors will cut us off and the merry go round will stop. Meanwhile we are living off savings
taken from the flat lined stock market and invested in the new McMansions now blighting the landscape. As decent paying American jobs are outsourced, it takes no crystal ball to realise a crunch will come.------with the better
placed unable to run faster to maintain the same income from a ever shrinking pie. But when the base of the food chain goes, there goes the consumer spending that keeps this economy afloat. Once unemployment goes much higher, the end will be near.

We have already outsourced the means of recovery.------and no one really planning for what next after the Feds
steering wheels--already locked and turned hard right fails to arrest the skid.

Just my take on the matter----that yield curve thing is not much of an indicator---when we have only to look and see that the debt we are living on now must sooner or later catch up with us.------and much sooner is my guess.

The US consumer is living just like the US government...beyond their means!

I was looking at the cuts of 39.x billion over 5 years that was just pushed through. During that time, 13.x trillion is to be spent. 3/10 of one percent. I guess it all adds up, but from the article, it doesn't even cover some tax cuts that are being pushed through. Fiscal responsibility has been dropped from the American rolls on all levels.....sadly! *sigh*

Yes those are very tiny cuts and yet many view those cuts as very draconian.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Lots of pure speculation here----how investor act is a little like watching lemming jump off cliffs.

But in my mind any recent economic progress made is based on running up ever more debt, a similar
thing happened with Ronald Reagan but at least American industrial decline was not as much part of the mix.
The key is still our trade defecit that has been growing by leaps and bounds since 1980.

One fine day our creditors will cut us off and the merry go round will stop. Meanwhile we are living off savings
taken from the flat lined stock market and invested in the new McMansions now blighting the landscape. As decent paying American jobs are outsourced, it takes no crystal ball to realise a crunch will come.------with the better
placed unable to run faster to maintain the same income from a ever shrinking pie. But when the base of the food chain goes, there goes the consumer spending that keeps this economy afloat. Once unemployment goes much higher, the end will be near.

We have already outsourced the means of recovery.------and no one really planning for what next after the Feds
steering wheels--already locked and turned hard right fails to arrest the skid.

Just my take on the matter----that yield curve thing is not much of an indicator---when we have only to look and see that the debt we are living on now must sooner or later catch up with us.------and much sooner is my guess.

The US consumer is living just like the US government...beyond their means!

I was looking at the cuts of 39.x billion over 5 years that was just pushed through. During that time, 13.x trillion is to be spent. 3/10 of one percent. I guess it all adds up, but from the article, it doesn't even cover some tax cuts that are being pushed through. Fiscal responsibility has been dropped from the American rolls on all levels.....sadly! *sigh*

Yes those are very tiny cuts and yet many view those cuts as very draconian.

But the cuts are even negative when compared to tax cuts.

Regardless, educational cuts are somewhat of a problem to me. I don't have much problem with Medicaid/Medicare as I don't get free 100% medical care and have problems with anyone on Medicaid getting 100% medical care including 100% free braces (teeth), etc. There are those that are exceptions to that, but they are rare.

Education is the only thing that can possibly save the US from a downfall, and even that may not be enough.....*sigh*

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Lots of pure speculation here----how investor act is a little like watching lemming jump off cliffs.

But in my mind any recent economic progress made is based on running up ever more debt, a similar
thing happened with Ronald Reagan but at least American industrial decline was not as much part of the mix.
The key is still our trade defecit that has been growing by leaps and bounds since 1980.

One fine day our creditors will cut us off and the merry go round will stop. Meanwhile we are living off savings
taken from the flat lined stock market and invested in the new McMansions now blighting the landscape. As decent paying American jobs are outsourced, it takes no crystal ball to realise a crunch will come.------with the better
placed unable to run faster to maintain the same income from a ever shrinking pie. But when the base of the food chain goes, there goes the consumer spending that keeps this economy afloat. Once unemployment goes much higher, the end will be near.

We have already outsourced the means of recovery.------and no one really planning for what next after the Feds
steering wheels--already locked and turned hard right fails to arrest the skid.

Just my take on the matter----that yield curve thing is not much of an indicator---when we have only to look and see that the debt we are living on now must sooner or later catch up with us.------and much sooner is my guess.

The US consumer is living just like the US government...beyond their means!

I was looking at the cuts of 39.x billion over 5 years that was just pushed through. During that time, 13.x trillion is to be spent. 3/10 of one percent. I guess it all adds up, but from the article, it doesn't even cover some tax cuts that are being pushed through. Fiscal responsibility has been dropped from the American rolls on all levels.....sadly! *sigh*

Yes those are very tiny cuts and yet many view those cuts as very draconian.

But the cuts are even negative when compared to tax cuts.

Regardless, educational cuts are somewhat of a problem to me. I don't have much problem with Medicaid/Medicare as I don't get free 100% medical care and have problems with anyone on Medicaid getting 100% medical care including 100% free braces (teeth), etc. There are those that are exceptions to that, but they are rare.

Education is the only thing that can possibly save the US from a downfall, and even that may not be enough.....*sigh*

And there lies part of the problem. Someone pork is someone else entitlement. It also appears that no one even thinks that goverment spending does not crowd out private charitable(scholarships and such) spending.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Lots of pure speculation here----how investor act is a little like watching lemming jump off cliffs.

But in my mind any recent economic progress made is based on running up ever more debt, a similar
thing happened with Ronald Reagan but at least American industrial decline was not as much part of the mix.
The key is still our trade defecit that has been growing by leaps and bounds since 1980.

One fine day our creditors will cut us off and the merry go round will stop. Meanwhile we are living off savings
taken from the flat lined stock market and invested in the new McMansions now blighting the landscape. As decent paying American jobs are outsourced, it takes no crystal ball to realise a crunch will come.------with the better
placed unable to run faster to maintain the same income from a ever shrinking pie. But when the base of the food chain goes, there goes the consumer spending that keeps this economy afloat. Once unemployment goes much higher, the end will be near.

We have already outsourced the means of recovery.------and no one really planning for what next after the Feds
steering wheels--already locked and turned hard right fails to arrest the skid.

Just my take on the matter----that yield curve thing is not much of an indicator---when we have only to look and see that the debt we are living on now must sooner or later catch up with us.------and much sooner is my guess.

The US consumer is living just like the US government...beyond their means!

I was looking at the cuts of 39.x billion over 5 years that was just pushed through. During that time, 13.x trillion is to be spent. 3/10 of one percent. I guess it all adds up, but from the article, it doesn't even cover some tax cuts that are being pushed through. Fiscal responsibility has been dropped from the American rolls on all levels.....sadly! *sigh*

Yes those are very tiny cuts and yet many view those cuts as very draconian.

But the cuts are even negative when compared to tax cuts.

Regardless, educational cuts are somewhat of a problem to me. I don't have much problem with Medicaid/Medicare as I don't get free 100% medical care and have problems with anyone on Medicaid getting 100% medical care including 100% free braces (teeth), etc. There are those that are exceptions to that, but they are rare.

Education is the only thing that can possibly save the US from a downfall, and even that may not be enough.....*sigh*

And there lies part of the problem. Someone pork is someone else entitlement. It also appears that no one even thinks that goverment spending does not crowd out private charitable(scholarships and such) spending.

You know, I'm almost at the point to tell the government just to do a 13% cut across the board no matter who or what needs it.

And for the record, I don't think of education as an entitlement, I see it as an investment in the future. Seems people like you tout the US manufacturing structure as a thing of the past and high tech service jobs are the future, yet investing in that future via education is an "entitlement". Fine, cut her to the bone. Doesn't matter to me. I'll automate the crap out of as much as I can to save as many jobs as I can and the rest can do whatever they can with whats left. *shrugs*

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Engineer

You know, I'm almost at the point to tell the government just to do a 13% cut across the board no matter who or what needs it.

And for the record, I don't think of education as an entitlement, I see it as an investment in the future. Seems people like you tout the US manufacturing structure as a thing of the past and high tech service jobs are the future, yet investing in that future via education is an "entitlement". Fine, cut her to the bone. Doesn't matter to me. I'll automate the crap out of as much as I can to save as many jobs as I can and the rest can do whatever they can with whats left. *shrugs*

We see things a bit differently. There is no requirement for federal aid in education spending and I think it is best left to state and local levels. Our k-12 education system is very broke at this point more goverment funding does not appear to be solving it. It also appears the more fed funds college education, the higher tuition costs go.

But as far as manufacturing goes, our manufacturing is not in decline. It ist just becoming more automated by profression engineers like yourself. This is happening all over the world. We both agree that education is the key to doing well in the currently economy, but we disagree on the feds roll.

 

[conjur]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Engineer
The US consumer is living just like the US government...beyond their means!

I was looking at the cuts of 39.x billion over 5 years that was just pushed through. During that time, 13.x trillion is to be spent. 3/10 of one percent. I guess it all adds up, but from the article, it doesn't even cover some tax cuts that are being pushed through. Fiscal responsibility has been dropped from the American rolls on all levels.....sadly! *sigh*

Yes those are very tiny cuts and yet many view those cuts as very draconian.

It's a matter of perspective. $500 billion on a defense budget and the GOP is concerned about less than 10% of that over education and the health of the poor and the elderly. Guns or butter?

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: conjur

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Engineer
The US consumer is living just like the US government...beyond their means!

I was looking at the cuts of 39.x billion over 5 years that was just pushed through. During that time, 13.x trillion is to be spent. 3/10 of one percent. I guess it all adds up, but from the article, it doesn't even cover some tax cuts that are being pushed through. Fiscal responsibility has been dropped from the American rolls on all levels.....sadly! *sigh*

Yes those are very tiny cuts and yet many view those cuts as very draconian.

It's a matter of perspective. $500 billion on a defense budget and the GOP is concerned about less than 10% of that over education and the health of the poor and the elderly. Guns or butter?

Guns and butter is always a choice that has to be made, but a 50Billion reduction in any spending over 5 is not much. On a budget that is greater than 2 trillion, we are talking in the rounding error range.