Originally posted by: PAB
Originally posted by: iversonyin
Originally posted by: PAB
Originally posted by: bigdog1218
Originally posted by: PAB
Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
STOP TRADING!!!!!
After taxes, etc ... YOU WILL LOOSE OUT TO ANY BUY/HOLD INVESTOR!
Buy and hold = Buy and lose. Look what happened with Corning. I waited for a catalyst to get that stock off it's ass for a while.
You can't make money if you hold infinitely. You have to sell and know when the right time to sell it. Sector rotation is important in an economy as diverse and dynamic as ours.
Buy and hold is outdated and wrong. You HAVE to sell eventually or when there isnt a good/compelling reason to own that stock anymore. For example, my compelling reason on CVX was the analyist meeting. The boosted production but forecast a relatively flat year - shortly after I got stopped out and didnt make my full point but caught 75 cents. Not the greatest return ever, but not bad for three days.
Your just said you have owned a stock since 2001 that you've been holding for the past 6 years and still haven't made your money back, so one of these statements is full of sh!t.
And have fun riding ATI to 93.
Right, because I was drinking the buy and hold kool aid. I'm holding corning NOW because their diesel/LCD business has shored up nicely and I'm waiting to get in the 30's before I sell.
My investment philosiphy has changed, obviously since 2001. I bought corning with the buy and hold mindset - and I just said buy and hold dosent work and I illustrated my point perfectly.
And when ATI hits 93, I'm buying more. I'm calling you out on that one. If/when ATI hits 93, I'm going to average down and when it hits 103 a week later I'm going to post trade confirmations and PWN your ass.
If you knew anything about ATI you'd know that they've got a very solid business, and their stock goes down for short periods of time and comes right back. They are a quality company with a great product, great margins, and are poised to make a lot of money off the ethanol craze - which I have market research supporting that ethanol is NOT going away anytime soon, and they're suppliers of high performance products to Boeing, which is having a spectacular run.
When earnings comes out on ATI in April, we'll know who's right.
And are you the only guy on the street that discover ATI is a great business? What gives you an edge? Cramer?
Low cost index fund beat almost everything in the long run for most individual investors.
And if ATI is such a great business....tell me about what they do and how much they make from each of their businesses...which one of its business drove the growth it had in 2005-6? Which one of its business are you seeing growth in the future 2007-2008? How big its margin going to get?
High performance metal, stainless steel, titanium, engineered products, etc. They even make armor plate!
I guess what you're asking is if I've bothered to do any homework on what the company makes, where they make it, and how much they sell it for - all information that is readily available in their annual report.
Aerospace represents 25% of their 2005 sales. Titanium, andi their alloys (representing 18% of their business in 05) are going to be used more extensively in avation throughout 2008.
Growth in Oil/Gas Drilling and Exploration increases demand for ATI's products as well....
I could go on and on.
BTW, Cramer pumped up CAT bigtime recently. I dont know if this is a smart move and here's why.
ACERT still isnt operationally sound. I havent heard one good thing about it. Did you know CAT acknowledged they would not meet EPA deadlines on getting ACERT into production and would have to pay fines to the EPA for not being in compliance?
North America still represents their largest sales area, not to mention one of their most visible.
On Highway Engines represents a gigantic part of CAT branding. When truckers stop saying IF IT AINT A CAT ITS A DOG - thats a big problem. The OHE business is one of their most visible product lines, representing 29% of their 2005 sales. 29% = $3,000,000,000 in revenue. Thats a lot of yellow paint. The big problem right now is that PACCAR, which owns Peterbilt and Kenworth both offer CAT engine options.
Peterbilt's Denton, TX factory has 500+ tractors sitting at the factory waiting for CAT engines. This is not good news. In fact, I'm somewhat inqusitive about it. I wonder if dealers and end users will go to something like an ISM/ISX from CMI instead of waiting around for big yellow.
Anyhow, thats my .02 cents on it. I might sell the put on CAT and see use it as a cost reduction strategy to get the stock cheaper if the buyback pops it up. I personally dont see a particularly (get the joke?) strong catalyst thats going to propel CAT up anytime soon.
edit: show me a low cost index fund that you like, and I'll show you a fund that I probably own that has outperformed it.