YADT (Yet Another Doomsday Thread) - Volcano under Yellowstone is going to annihilate us all!

kenshorin

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Apr 14, 2001
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I figured I'd post a doomsday thread since we already got one on a black hole being created in a lab. Interesting thing I read the other day.

Today, courtesy of my geologist buddy, I?d like to tell you about a real possible doomsday scenario that is sitting under our very feet. It?s a volcano. Not just any old volcano like another Mt. St. Helens. That thing was just a firecracker. I?m talking about one that could end the world as we know it?a supervolcano, and it?s inevitable.
Is there any evidence from geology that there have ever been any really catastrophic volcanos in the past? There sure is. There?s the volcano that formed the Deccan Traps, frozen lava fields in modern India, which were formed at the same time the dinosaurs checked out 65 million years ago and may have been the reason for their demise (and not an asteroid as most paleontologists seem to think, now). There?s the one that I live near, the Valles Caldera, which last erupted a mere 60,000 years ago, but had two ancient eruptions(600,000 and 1.5 million years ago) that sent magma and rocks as far as Kansas.

And before that, some quarter of a billion years ago, the Siberian Traps were also formed by a supervolcano and nearly all life (96% of all species) on earth was obliterated. With the volcanic eruptions that formed the Siberian Traps, noxious gases and ash plunged the earth into a winter. Large amounts of greenhouse gases, such as CO2, also filled the atmosphere, and as the atmosphere cleared the earth entered a phase of intense global warming. It was a killer,but that was then and the volcano I?m talking about isn?t going to be as big as those (at least we don?t think it will be), but it?ll be a big one when it goes off. And where is it? Believe it or not, it?s right here in the United States, smack under Yellowstone Park.

From the geological evidence, apparently it first erupted about 2.1 million years ago with an explosion that threw some 500 cubic miles (500 cu.3) of debris into the air. Mt. St. Helens, by comparison, tossed less than .5 mi.3 into the air, and remember how that looked? Ash came down in Iowa and it left behind a crater 50 by 40 miles, a depression larger than the state of Rhode Island.

In another major eruption 1.3 million years ago, 60 mi.3 of stuff went into the air. The last big one went off 640,000 years ago (200 mi.3.) In the meantime there have been smaller eruptions that have caused small-scale disasters,but it?s the big ones we?re worried about.

And when?s the next big eruption due? Well, it seems to go off every 600,000 or so years with the last one 640,000 years ago, so we?re due any time within the next 100,000 or so years; the funny thing is, it could start tomorrow.What would happen if it did?tomorrow? Next month? A year from now? Here?s what geologists think:
In the next big eruption, magma will be thrown 30 miles into the air. Within a 600-mile radius most life will be obliterated by the explosion, falling ash, and lava flows. Within minutes perhaps millions will die. Grain production in the midwest will be obliterated in hours. The nation?s cattle, sheep, chickens, pigs, etc., will begin to starve. It will do no good to slaughter them because communications and transportation are going to break down and there will be no way to get the meat to market. They?ll just rot in the fields.

Think you?re going to bail out of this one by planting a garden in your backyard? Think again. Hundreds of cubic miles of volcanic ash thrown into the air will circle the earth, reducing northern hemisphere temperatures by as much as 21 degrees. A growing season will be practically nonexistent.

There will be no ?living off the land? as almost all species will be pushed to the brink of extinction, and many will go over the edge.
Survivors from temperate climates will attempt to flee south, but there will be no more gasoline being delivered, so almost no one will make it any further than one tankful of gas. After that, you?ll walk.
Migration will be reversed as Americans try to cross into Mexico,but Mexicans will be having their own problems and we in the U.S. probably will not be welcomed. The balance of world power will shift to equatorial nations.

If it starts tomorrow, hardly anyone reading this post will survive. By the way, 71,000 years ago a supervolcano in Indonesia erupted causing worldwide disruptions. The skies darkened for half a dozen years precipitating an ice age that lasted about 1,000 years, driving many species to extinction and mankind to the brink. They think that as few as 10,000 humans remained alive,and that wasn?t even a really big one.

CLIFFS NOTES -

Someone noticed the shoreline on one side of a lake in Yellowstone was resceding while the other was rising.

Scientists discovered a caldera (giant volcanic crater formed by supervolcanoes when they erupt) in the Yellowstone area, and realized there's lava bubbling under the surface.

Its estimated this thing could be one bad mofo of a volcano when it blows its stack.

There is nothing you can do about it, we are all screwed.

Have a nice day!
 

kenshorin

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2001
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...tried searching, but I knew it was only a matter of time before someone tells me I suck at teh search. Fine then.

R

:p
 

ElFenix

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Mar 20, 2000
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Originally posted by: kenshorin
...tried searching, but I knew it was only a matter of time before someone tells me I suck at teh search. Fine then.

R

:p

no it might be archived in which case it isn't a repost.
 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
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matt426malm

Golden Member
Nov 14, 2003
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Yah that has to be my 2nd favorite doomsday scenario. Apocolypse: a natural history of global disasters. Pretty much talks about all the possible geologic doomsday scenarios.

La Palma Volcanic Collapse big volcaninc island in the canary chain on the "relative" verge of collapse. Could send a 100 foot wave to the east coast.
 

Eli

Super Moderator | Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
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It would be a significant event, if it was large.. that's for sure. OTOH, it could be a little *puff* on the volcano richter scale.

It has had some VERY significant eruptions in the past, though.. :Q

*yawn*

What you goin to do about it? Bring it on, I say. ;)

:p

It wouldn't be a significant event for Western Oregon, even if the winds were blowing east(read: rare). ;)

Maybe some damage from earthquake(s). Maybe if Yellowstone caused the Cascades to meltdown.. w00t.. now we're talkin. :Q
 

kenshorin

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2001
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Originally posted by: conjur
Originally posted by: ElFenix
Originally posted by: kenshorin
...tried searching, but I knew it was only a matter of time before someone tells me I suck at teh search. Fine then.

R

:p

no it might be archived in which case it isn't a repost.

Sure it is!

:p

Ah well, after we all get wiped off the face of the planet we won't have to worry about reposts anymore! :beer:
 

MacBaine

Banned
Aug 23, 2001
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So what do we do when the volcano erupts?

That's right... duck... and cover.

Looks like you've got the idea.
 

Eli

Super Moderator | Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
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Well, I read the article..

It sure does make it seem bad... :Q

What would happen if something like that happened? Would everything really fall apart? Would our government stay intact, try and keep order and control? Even if the whole midwest was gone, some things would still function to an extent, even if our long term odds don't look so good.. lol

I guess it all depends on how bad it is. If it's a 200+ cubic mile monster, I might get a little concerned.

But, of course, since I'm reading AT.. we'll be one of the first to know, so we can be one of the first to pillage the stores. :Q

;)
 

XZeroII

Lifer
Jun 30, 2001
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We are also expecting a huge earthquake in California that will kill millions. Whats your point?
 

alkemyst

No Lifer
Feb 13, 2001
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The big flaw in these doomsday propheseys is that they assume a lot of things. An event even large that far west would unlikely cause any production slow downs on the east coast of significance more than a moment of silence.

It would take a lot of adjustment sure but so much of our grain is simply destroyed already. I am sure perhaps meat may rise in price, but not the end of the world.

If the Northern Hemisphere was impacted you could count on a fast alliance of northern territories which would simply march / storm into south america, africa and the like.

Å
 

EyeMWing

Banned
Jun 13, 2003
15,670
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Communications would not break down. Life would go on. Toolbag. Our systems are more resiliant than that.

And what IDIOT would head SOUTH? Our Canadian bretheren would gladly take in American refugees.
 

Electric Amish

Elite Member
Oct 11, 1999
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So, there's a volcano under Yellowstone park??

Yeah, no sh!t, captain obvious.
rolleye.gif
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
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Oct 30, 2000
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And Old Faithful blows off steam to release the pressure.

Let the Green Tree huggers dig a hole and tap all the heat.
Channel it into steam for generators and reduce the need for oil/coal fired generators.

Solve both problems at once.:p
 

matt426malm

Golden Member
Nov 14, 2003
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That volcano is so dangerous because it is a ryolite caldera type volcano the worst of the worst.

"Rhyolite caldera complexes are the most explosive of Earth's volcanoes but often don't even look like volcanoes. They are usually so explosive when they erupt that they end up collapsing in on themselves rather than building any tall structure (George Walker has termed such structures "inverse volcanoes"). The collapsed depressions are large calderas, and they indicate that the magma chambers associated with the eruptions are huge. In fact, layers of ash (either ash falls or ash flows) often extend over thousands of square kilometers in all directions from these calderas. Fortunately we haven't had to live through one of these since 83 AD when Taupo erupted. Many rhyolite caldera complexes, however, are the scenes of small-scale eruptions during the long reposes between big explosive events. The vents for these smaller eruptions sometimes follow the ring faults of the main caldera but most often they don't. The origin of these rhyolite complexes is still not well-understood. Many folks think that Yellowstone, for example, is associated with a hotspot. However, a hotspot origin for most other rhyolite calderas doesn't work; they occur in subduction-related arcs. Examples of rhyolite caldera complexes include Yellowstone, La Primavera, Rabaul, Taupo, Toba, and others."

Very large amounts of gas disolves in this type of magma. It stays there because the lava is extremely thick do to high Si-O2 content 79%. Compared to less to around 45% with hawaii. Mt. St. Helens some where in the middle.

When the Yellowstone volcano errupts the gas boils out of the very thick ryolite magma. This is would be extremely violent.

Volume Comparison of Ash





Sort of a scenario of the event

source(http://www.rense.com/general41/yellowstoneupdate.htm)
the link is dead but that is the source

By Dr. Bruce Cornet
Geologist, Paleobotanist, and Palynologist
September 8th, 2003

Mt. Sheriden has been rumbling (15+ micro-quakes) between 1:00 pm and now (9/7/03). There were three small earthquakes at Yellowstone lake between 10:00 am and 1:00 pm MT (9/7/03), which were felt at Norris Junction. There were some small quakes between Midnight and 6:00 am (9/7/03) at Norris Junction. There was a whole string of micro-quakes (25 or more) at Madison River between 6:00 am and now, which are continuing. There have been sporadic micro-quakes (32+) all day at Mammoth Hot Springs. Micro-quakes started around Noon and have continued to the present at Mirror Lake Plateau. All in all, activity is picking up from a lull for about two weeks, before which a series of small and large quakes (including a 4.4) occurred. That quake prompted the web report.

Steam pressure is apparently building again, and hydrothermal fluids and steam are working their way up through fractures and vents. I do not expect anything unusual or extreme to happen in the immediate future, but if the trend continues, and the number of earthquakes gradually increase with time, more warnings from geologists will ensue.

What you should be alert to is any report that mentions increasing geyser activity, with new fumaroles and steam vents appearing near or on top of the rising dome. The dome has risen about three feet in the past few years, and magma has risen to within 3.7 km of the surface based on quake data. Earthquake loci measured to within 0.5 km under Mt. St. Helens, and people still didn't think it would erupt.

But everything has to be scaled up for Yellowstone, meaning that 3.7 km is not a safe depth. Ground temperatures in the northwestern part of the park are apparently on the rise (up to 200 dg F in some places), killing the vegetation. Large areas of the park are now closed, including areas with geysers, because their water temperature is now scalding and dangerous for visitors.

If more steam vents appear, that means a continuous pathway for pressure release has been established to the magma chamber. If that happens, the pressure in the magma chamber will continue to drop until it reaches a critical stage when the superheated water within the magma explodes. When that happens the super-volcano will blow violently, blowing out a chunk of its cap-rock and sending millions of cubic feet of ash into the atmosphere in a Pompeii-like explosion, but 100,000 times worse.

When you hear those reports, you will have about two days to "get out of Dodge" before the eruption. Unfortunately, as the steam venting subsides, there will be a false sense of security. People will think it was just another cyclical event, and the danger is over. But that will be the farthest from the truth. It will be the quiet before the storm. A major earthquake will suddenly rock their towns for hundreds of kilometers around Yellowstone, and soon thereafter 1,000+ degree pyroclastic flows will descend on them at hundreds of miles per hour, extending out to 600+ km.

That 600 km radius around the caldera will experience total devastation. The next 600 km out may receive as much as 5-10 feet of ash, depending on wind direction. The thickness of ash will decrease away from the super-volcano, but will reach the crop belt in the Midwest (Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, etc.), destroying most of the fertile croplands of the United States. California will be hit hard by falling ash, with its central wine valley severely damaged (the French will love it). Agriculture will have to shift east of the Mississippi for years. The Garden State will once again live up to its name.

In northern Idaho you will have to contend with several feet of ash and isolation. Roads will be closed. Power will be out. Phones will be out. Communication will depend on Ham radios and local stations that have generators. Rescue will take weeks or months. Some areas will never see rescue teams. The survivalists will be best prepared to make it through the difficult months following the eruption. Make new friends. Have plenty of dust masks on hand, because you cannot breath any airborne ash if you want to avoid lung disease. It's what caused mass kills of plains animals 12 million years ago, resulting in extensive bone beds beneath the ash. Drinkable water will sell at the price of gold.

To recap, I don't expect anything to happen in the near future. But with such an unpredictable event, being prepared is your best ticket to survival."

Dr. Bruce Cornet



It probably wouldn't be the end of the world but Wyoming and many of the mountain states would be wiped clean and buried under hundreds of feet of ash. Much of the bread basket would get at least a meter. There would be a problem of what to do with all that ash. Likely fairly severe global cooling and an overall bad time had by all. Might not happen for 100,000 years though, but it is unlikely it would wait longer than that. In 1987 the caldera started to fall by 2.5 cm, or 1 in., a year, and rose a meter since 1900. It began to buldge again in 1995. So it is definetly still active.
 

DanTMWTMP

Lifer
Oct 7, 2001
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that sucks....i guess we won't be blowing up each other then now will we like that one funny flash skit lololol
 

Homerboy

Lifer
Mar 1, 2000
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I think these people that are saying "so what, we lose the midwest are missing the fact that toxic gas(es) and ash will FILL THE SKY. Not just in the midwest, but throughout the US and, depending on size, world wide.

We may not all die in an instant like those poor saps sitting on top the volcano, rather you'd be choked out of existance.
 

Shockwave

Banned
Sep 16, 2000
9,059
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There will be those survivalists who are prepared. And there will be those predators such as myself who will kill them for what they have.
No worries, although I do need another case of ammunition. Thanks for reminding me, off to get one.