Most of us simply don't have the knowledge and understanding of how the financial systems and markets work to really have meaningful insight. I still suspect that things are going to get a lot worse, the combination of oil and commodity pricing, food pricing, consumer debt levels and a faltering economy is going to be ugly... but that's just my take.
And people laughed when I said the Federal Reserve's credibility was shot for trying to focus more on jobs than inflation.
Personally, I think they were counting on deflation from credit contraction to counter inflation pressures from lower short-term rates. They didn't count on commodities going nuts.
Thump553
Lifer
- Jun 2, 2000
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Please, RBS is just another commercial bank-and not a particularly well- run one at that. They had huge losses as a result of the subprime mess. Their stock is trading on the NYSE at about $4.30-down almost two-thirds in value in a year. Not the sort of people I would go to for expert financial advice.
I wonder aloud whether this poorly run financial institution is trying to distract attention from themselves. We may (nay, probably) will have increased inflation in the near future but in my view that is hardly the most serious financial issue facing the economy.
I wonder aloud whether this poorly run financial institution is trying to distract attention from themselves. We may (nay, probably) will have increased inflation in the near future but in my view that is hardly the most serious financial issue facing the economy.
I haven't bought in because I pretty much live paycheck to paycheck (in college). But 5 months ago, gold was approx 860 in the beginning of january and now its 930 so an 8-9% increase aint bad considering its at least going to be over 1000 by the end of the year and might even go upwards of 1200.
How are your dollars doing?
You know what the best (worst) part about this whole shit-storm is? Nobody who has any kind of influence will learn a god damn thing.
You may be right. But I don't think anyone expected the math to work out so perfectly. Worse, a major part of the Fed's job is perception. So, while they may have saved the day, they have to pay a price for it. And that price is the perception that the Feds aren't serious about inflation. Again, the European Central has done a much better job in this space. They not only gave the banks oodles of money (over half a trillion dollars), but not once did they take their eyes of inflation, keeping interest rate the same for most of the crisis. Now that's what I call leadership.
I am doing pretty fcking good. My portfolio is up 3.6%, not bad considering. I took a double short on gold back when it was 980, rode it down to 900. I laid on a double long then. I love trading on volatility.
No wonder why you're so full of piss and vinegar. You've got all of the answers to problems only a college person would frame. Get into the real world and let me know how things work. Although, for some people, it doesn't even help then.
No, I don't think anybody could make a perfect offset, but they expected deflation to mitigate any inflationary pressures. Overall it's not working perfect, but it's not horrible either.
They just need to get commodities under control.
I'd phase in 3 things.
1. Increase oversight by closing the London Loop, bolstering reporting requirements, and increasing capital targets for commodity derivatives.
2. Increase the margin requirements by 5% plus an additional 5% per quarter. By the end of this year they'd be at 20%. Give the market some time to unwind all of this trash.
3. Increase the Capital Gains tax by 10% over the next 12 months, distributed evently.
The combination of those 3 should shut this speculation thing down pretty quickly, but relatively orderly.
How is this supposed to work when you have the Chinese making deals all over the world looking for raw materials? India too.
Thump553
Lifer
- Jun 2, 2000
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Dari: what the Chinese are doing is not speculation, it is consumption (perhaps planned consumption) by an actual user.
LegendKiller's simple proposals have a lot of merit. I wish our Congress & agencies would do something like this instead of Dem grandstanding on windfall oil profits taxes (almost certainly unworkable) or McCain's reduce regulations (this direction caused the problem in the first place-but then again, what do expect the speculator's lobbyists to suggest?).
LegendKiller's simple proposals have a lot of merit. I wish our Congress & agencies would do something like this instead of Dem grandstanding on windfall oil profits taxes (almost certainly unworkable) or McCain's reduce regulations (this direction caused the problem in the first place-but then again, what do expect the speculator's lobbyists to suggest?).
If this were a supply/demand problem then prices wouldn't have adjusted to swiftly. 100% YOY and 66% in 6 months is ridiculous. It indicates that this isn't about fundamentals.
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