Wow. Bitcoin is almost $1,500

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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
19,972
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said everyone in 2017
And they were right, well, sort of: early 2016 had some awesome buys (notably ETH). Fact is, if you're looking at investing during a bubble (or half-bubble; we don't know how much further this run will go), you're already too late. Nov 2018-Mar 2019 had some amazing crypto deals. That was the last time I dipped in. Though I apparently did not buy quite the right thing, I'm still well in the black.
 

destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
358
126
And they were right, well, sort of: early 2016 had some awesome buys (notably ETH). Fact is, if you're looking at investing during a bubble (or half-bubble; we don't know how much further this run will go), you're already too late. Nov 2018-Mar 2019 had some amazing crypto deals. That was the last time I dipped in. Though I apparently did not buy quite the right thing, I'm still well in the black.
You should also consider the typical long-term strategy, dollar-cost-averaging. You buy when you can and however much you can.
There is truth to the notion that "stonks only go up", at least the good ones, and the same applies for other asset classes like resources (gold, bitcoin, ...).

So you buy now according to your investment/retirement plans, sure it may seem high, and it may fall back down to a lower level for a while. So you buy some more on the way down if you can. Eventually it'll re-correct and continue the upward trajectory due to supply constraints. And as it goes up, you still buy more. Because you keep adding to your positions and reinvesting earnings.

There's just no guarantees that BTC goes back down below 20K ever again, for instance, or ETH below $1000. Or maybe they do and keep crashing and completely fall out of use and the entire cryptocurrency movement goes bust.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
19,972
8,956
136
You should also consider the typical long-term strategy, dollar-cost-averaging. You buy when you can and however much you can.
With crypto I find it's better to wait for a crash and then do your DCA around the bottom. You won't find the bottom (unless you're really good!) but you can usually get close. The best thing about that is that you can usually tell when the market's in a tailspin and jump in a bit late to still score some good buys. It's not like you need to sniff out a crash BEFORE it happens ala shorting.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,432
126
There's just no guarantees that BTC goes back down below 20K ever again, for instance, or ETH below $1000. Or maybe they do and keep crashing and completely fall out of use and the entire cryptocurrency movement goes bust.
The difference between now and 2018 is that we now have Big Money investors and major corporations like Paypal, Tesla, and Microstrategy that have bought up billions worth of Bitcoin. These people aren't just going to sit back and watch their investments go down by more than 50%.
 

Torn Mind

Diamond Member
Nov 25, 2012
9,439
1,800
126
The difference between now and 2018 is that we now have Big Money investors and major corporations like Paypal, Tesla, and Microstrategy that have bought up billions worth of Bitcoin. These people aren't just going to sit back and watch their investments go down by more than 50%.
Government has tamed the tax evasion loophole. Now it's just forex trading with flavor.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,800
126
so i should buy a few bitcoin right now for that %66 guaranteed return?
what guarantee? The only guarantee is Tesla is going to be the most valuable company in the world in the next 10-15 years. :p

Investing is always about risk and opportunity cost. I look at bitcoin and I look at Tesla. I think there's chance bitcoin could hit $100k+ this year just like there's a chance TSLA could hit $1,000+. Or bitcoin could hit $500k to $1 million in 10-20 years. Or TSLA could hit $5,000 in 10-20 years. Or not. No one knows.
 

njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,295
230
106
I'm getting awfully close to leaving my (part-time) job and starting up a new business in the crypto world based thanks to Bitcoin et al. Bitcoin moving to $100K likely means I don't have to work again. If my dollars were still worth 2017 dollars I'd already be there, but I'm a bit worried of inflation and post-stimulus dollar value so that's been put off. My LLC form is submitted and now I have to schedule some discussions with fintech lawyers. I may have a gem of an idea and I'm not going to let the opportunity pass even if it means losing my employment status and coming ending up with something that at worst costs a bit in startup fees.
 
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ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,800
126
I'm getting awfully close to leaving my (part-time) job and starting up a new business in the crypto world based thanks to Bitcoin et al. Bitcoin moving to $100K likely means I don't have to work again. If my dollars were still worth 2017 dollars I'd already be there, but I'm a bit worried of inflation and post-stimulus dollar value so that's been put off. My LLC form is submitted and now I have to schedule some discussions with fintech lawyers. I may have a gem of an idea and I'm not going to let the opportunity pass even if it means losing my employment status and coming ending up with something that at worst costs a bit in startup fees.
I'm going to root for you! I think there's good chance Bitcoin hits $100k. I always say chase your dream. Even if your business venture is not successful, you can always find employment again if need be. And I wouldn't worry too much about inflation. You can keep your money working for you. That's what I'm doing. Screw Boomer stuff like bond or dividend funds. My money keeps growing even though I'm not working, and I expect that to continue. I have full confidence in my ability to keep growing my money.
 
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ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,432
126
what guarantee? The only guarantee is Tesla is going to be the most valuable company in the world in the next 10-15 years. :p

Investing is always about risk and opportunity cost. I look at bitcoin and I look at Tesla. I think there's chance bitcoin could hit $100k+ this year just like there's a chance TSLA could hit $1,000+. Or bitcoin could hit $500k to $1 million in 10-20 years. Or TSLA could hit $5,000 in 10-20 years. Or not. No one knows.
I hate to break it to you Ponyo, but the price of Tesla's stock will NEVER go to $5,000.







The stock would split before then :)
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
19,972
8,956
136
so i should buy a few bitcoin right now for that %66 guaranteed return?
You'd be better off waiting for the next crash and scraping up BTC near its bottom. The previous bottom was $3k, the next bottom will be somewhere between $20k-$47k I think.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,432
126
You'd be better off waiting for the next crash and scraping up BTC near its bottom. The previous bottom was $3k, the next bottom will be somewhere between $20k-$47k I think.
I keep waiting for the correction, but it's not happening. Too much Wall St money is being funneled into crypto to let it drop at the moment.
 

destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
358
126
You'd be better off waiting for the next crash and scraping up BTC near its bottom. The previous bottom was $3k, the next bottom will be somewhere between $20k-$47k I think.
If supply and demand continue to predictably scale the price in a logarithmic fashion, it's entirely plausible for it to never revisit current levels ever again.

Some interesting views below.

First image, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/alexandria/article/what-price-will-bitcoin-reach-this-time

1615743415892.png


Second image, source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-logarithmic-growth-curve/

newplot.png


Third image, source: https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769

1615745888090.png
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
19,972
8,956
136
I keep waiting for the correction, but it's not happening. Too much Wall St money is being funneled into crypto to let it drop at the moment.
Historically, BTC has had multiple pump/dump cycles, though each bottom is higher than the last. It's definitley not going back to 2018 levels:


Eventually it will pump too high and correct. The market "tried" to correct recently and held at around $44-47k. It's previous ATH before pullback was ~$20k. I would not expect any BTC crash for awhile though. This current trend seems like 2016-mid 2017 when BTC went on a steady price increase before pumping hard.

If supply and demand continue to predictably scale the price in a logarithmic fashion, it's entirely plausible for it to never revisit current levels ever again.
Supply is always going to be an issue, which personally I think is already "priced in" to current levels. Whether or not it can test or break through 47k on a downward crash remains to be seen. It's still prone to volatility, no matter who is pushing in with money.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,432
126
Well... I guess that this is one way of triggering a sale:


I hope that it drops below $50,000... I want to buy in cheap!
 

Shmee

Memory and Storage, Graphics Cards
Super Moderator
Sep 13, 2008
6,127
1,449
136
It only went down to around $55k so far. Looks like it might be going back up again...
 

Majes

Golden Member
Apr 8, 2008
1,164
148
106
I hope that it drops below $50,000... I want to buy in cheap!
I'd say just get in now... The bitcoin price is very news dependent. Right now it bounces up when companies report buying in and down if there is regulation news.

I actually think there will be an Ethereum pump in the next few weeks if you feel like gambling. They have some upgrades that should push the price and I've seen some $2,500 price predictions in the short-term. (Do your own research though, I'm personally mostly bitcoin as I think that's a solid bet as a store of value. The altcoin arena is VERY competitive and quite scary...)
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,432
126
I'd say just get in now... The bitcoin price is very news dependent. Right now it bounces up when companies report buying in and down if there is regulation news.

I actually think there will be an Ethereum pump in the next few weeks if you feel like gambling. They have some upgrades that should push the price and I've seen some $2,500 price predictions in the short-term. (Do your own research though, I'm personally mostly bitcoin as I think that's a solid bet as a store of value. The altcoin arena is VERY competitive and quite scary...)
Right now, my crypto HODL "portfolio" is over 50% Bitcoin, 30% Ethereum, and almost 20% being the various crap coins that Coinbase gave away in their promos.

I also bought some AMD stock, because I still think that the best way to profit from a gold rush is to be selling the picks and shovels.
 
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Train

Lifer
Jun 22, 2000
13,808
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www.bing.com
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ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
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Price jumped after Morgan Stanley announces they will be offering exposure to BTC in investment accts starting next month: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/17/bitcoin-morgan-stanley-is-the-first-big-us-bank-to-offer-wealthy-clients-access-to-bitcoin-funds.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

I was hoping to dump some more money in sub $50k but I'm starting to feel we will never see sub 50 again.
Yeah, they're only offering Bitcoin investment vehicles to high net worth investors, though. Which is odd, considering that it's the little guys who are the most currently invested in crypto.
 

Train

Lifer
Jun 22, 2000
13,808
49
91
www.bing.com
Yeah, they're only offering Bitcoin investment vehicles to high net worth investors, though. Which is odd, considering that it's the little guys who are the most currently invested in crypto.
For accts like that, they don't make money off of small guys. They are also afraid of a small guy panicking and selling at the bottom while playing with a volatile asset, then blaming the bank for bad advice and getting tons of bad press.

Add to that, the people already invested in Crypto have no desire to use MS to do it. This just brings more money into the BTC space, even if it is just naive fat-cats on a short MS leash.
 

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