Why not try it out?
Swap the card from your other machine temporarily to see if the PSU can handle it, if not, you will know.
dnuggett, you don't calculate really, you look at reviews and things, and work out whether it's the CPU or graphics card which is likely to limit you.
Obviouslt if you have a 1.2GHz Athlon with a 6800Ultra, the CPU is the limiter. If it's a Geforce MX4000 with an AMD64 4000+, the graphics card is the limiter.
You can only make reasoned guesses, and it often depends on the games you play (some will be CPU bound, others graphics bound), but if you read enough reviews, you can make an informed guess. An XP 2800+ isn't too awful, a 9600XT isn't too great, so a graphics upgrade would probably be more worthwhile than a CPU upgrade.